Just some explanation for the increasing military activity around Taiwan. In the Taiwanese magazine Commonwealth (天下), scholar Lin Ying-you wrote about the increase in PLA activity. He argues that it is not just for domestic reasons, but also to compensate for Taiwan’s growing international profile. I think that is a fair point. Just as Taiwanese are rightfully scared that Beijing might see an opportunity to make some moves in the rapidly shifting international situation, China probably also fears that Taiwan will use the current fluidity to strengthen its position and maybe achieve a few breakthroughs. At least part of the aggressiveness towards Taiwan can be seen as compensation for that. Then, we also should not forget that 20 May is the inauguration of Tsai Ing-wen’s second term, and inaugurations of DPP presidents are beloved targets of PLA pressure. It looks like her inauguration speech will demonstrate Tsai’s usual balancing to strengthen a cautious status quo on Cross-Strait relations, but that is not good enough for Beijing.

Still, the Kyodo report of the alleged plans by the PLA to practice a simulation of taking over the Taiwan-controlled Pratas/Dongsha Islands in August is something to keep an eye on, certainly because it is not impossible to redirect an exercise to actually do something.