Taiwan’s foreign minister has already indicated that they do not seek formal diplomatic recognition from the US at this point The US recognising the ROC would not be helpful, only massively increase the risk of military escalation.

The approach in Taipei has been to maintain its existing allies as much as possible while focusing on building up ‘non-official’ ties with bigger, more important countries and international organisations. It has been successful with that approach not just in the US, but also in Europe, Japan and India. It makes much more sense to slowly expand the space for interaction there, so the world can get used to seeing Taiwan as its own country, rather than force the issue with something as explosive as official recognition by the US.

America could take other steps short of recognition, such as ending strategic ambiguity or increasing joint military exercises.