Interesting thought on Trump's reflexivity. There are arguments for and against I think.

For: Trump reacts reflexively to almost everything...often to his detriment.

Against: Narrowly on China, Trump has tweeted impulsively but done very little else impulsively. His moves on tariffs, Huawei, Taiwan, etc seem highly calculated and carefully considered.

My feeling is that ala 2019, Trump is more likely to act on China when the market is high - so he has some breathing room. He has always folded his hand and come back to the table with China after the markets convulsed (4Q 2018, 3Q 2019).

So, I'm sticking to my view that so far this year he hasn't done anything substantive on China because of the proximity of the election and weak market. What has now changed is that the market is nearly at all time highs and his poll numbers look terrible.