This is all valid and I appreciate the distinction between a market mistake and an attack. Its rumor, but I've heard that the March 2020 blowup in the treasury/risk parity markets were caused by aggressive China-based selling and the PBOC were threatened by Powell/Mnuchin with losing SWIFT access at that time.

Similarly, I believe that the August 2015 devaluation was politically calculated prior, even though it blew up spectacularly in China's face.

Also worth pointing out that the August 2015 incident immediately preceded Xi's trip to the White House in September (and major lie on the SCS islands in the Rose Garden). One can never determine cause and effect, but, markets and politics are connected in every way and especially right now.

Of course I agree with your last point wholeheartedly. Check out the China A share market performance in Jan-Feb 2020. That is not a market that was pricing in a draconian shutdown, and I believe was a big reason the financial world was caught so off guard when the virus left China's shores.

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-joint