I would like to ask Bill and the group how China responds to a Trump diplomatic recognition of Taiwan before the election. This isn't a base case for me, but it seems to have some non-trivial chance of happening.

Is it a situation where diplomats in both countries are firmly ejected? What other possibilities (short of war) take shape. Remember, China has more to lose than the US by losing access to the financial system.

My thoughts on your questions below.

1. Evergrande is too big to fail from a property market perspective, and maybe more importantly has been financed with a ton of USD debt which could create a situation where capital markets shut off.

2. Trump's speech pinning blame firmly on China for pollution and the virus was right on - it's amazing how every other world leader (as well as media, business, and general public) is intimidated by the truth via monetary coercion. Jamil Anderlini wrote a fantastic article on the subject I'd like to push out to everyone.

https://www.ft.com/content/e76a835b-27d5-4750-9749-04921d6bf1eb

Xi's speech, by contrast, was a carbon copy of what he has said since Davos in 2017. Multilateralism is your friend, world, just don't get cross the CCP.

3. The only personnel change I'm watching very closely for is Wang Qishan or Liu He. This reflects my focus on capital markets. No other real insights but would appreciate any from the group.

Thanks