Evergrande is a situation I have more questions than answers on at the moment, in no particular order:
1. Was the document released indicating Evergrande is in distress leaked by the company itself to “bully” the Government into giving them a handout?
2. Is the document itself completely false as the company claims it to be and this all goes out of the news cycle next week?
3. If it escalates and is more systemic who in the domestic financial system suffers most? Early reports indicate Minsheng, ABC and ICBC have the largest loan exposure to Evergrande.
4. Is there a risk of Evergrande defaulting/restructuring on their USD bonds and what does this mean longer term for China to try and have its High Yield market recognised more globally / “opening up” of financial system?
5. Who foots the bill for a bailout? Would the second and third largest developers be asked to do “national service” a la Moutai issuing bonds to bail out an unrelated expressway company last week?