The piece gets me thinking about 1968 (once again, this year): In 1968, the Soviets invaded a liberalizing Czechoslovakia. Historians now suggest the Soviet invasion might have been contingent on American carnage at home; domestic turmoil rendered the US unable to mount punishing retaliatory action. “In August 1968, the contentious Chicago Democratic Convention sparked serious civil unrest in Chicago at the very moment of the Warsaw Pact invasion,” writes Jeremy Suri.

This episode from 1968 suggests two reasons to be wary re: US-China today. (1) China will seek to take advantage of American domestic chaos and see it as a “window of strategic opportunity,” much as they viewed 9/11. (2) PLAN/PLAAF exercises around Taiwan are on the rise this year. Is Hong Kong the precursor or culmination of an emboldened China’s foreign policy in 2020?