The one source of a sanity in this entire war seems to be the aggressor, Putin and Russia have made clear concise statements about their plans, intentions and results. They sought enforcement of the Minsk peace accords for years before the war started. It is clear to me that Putin and Lavrov put in significant effort to avoid this war.

It is my belief that Russia will end the SMO with the closing of the annexations. They have already announced that conversion from the special operation into an anti-terrorist operation is their next step. This would fit with the narrative from the beginning, ensuring the peace and preventing Russians from being attacked. It is clear to me that Russia expects Ukraine and NATO to push terroristic attacks on the new territories and is intent on stopping them. With the pipeline terrorist attack as a turning point it seems that Russia was correct yet again, terrorism from the west is the new threat.

I expect that the Ukraine war is over from a Russian perspective.