Big fan of the Swedish approach and Anders Tegnell ( I have lived there through the pandemic ) but there was a -6% mortality deficit vs years 2015-19 for the 64 days before the first COVID death in Sweden, and the end of the flu season was in sight.

So this analysis, while interesting and persuasive could be seen as a bit of a slight of hand.

The baseline excess figure for Sweden from the date of the first COVID death to the start of the vaccine rollout is just over 11%.