The only way DeSantis can win is if Trump is in the race, for reasons you've already given.

The only way Trump can win is if he destroys the 1/6 narrative and exposes the jabs.

Obviously it's UNLIKELY that Trump is in the race to soak up media fire, but it's a non-zero possibility.

(All this, of course, relies on free and fair elections, which we probably won't have thanks to the midterm fortification of PA/AZ/MI/WI)