3. In a recent interview with Caixin Yan Xuetong 阎学通 downplayed the possibility of a minor incident sparking war （擦枪走火). He was specifically asked about the possibility of this occurring in the South China Sea or Taiwan. He was rather sanguine in the interview. link here: http://international.caixin.com/2020-04-30/101548885.html

I personally think we'd see such brinksmanship that it might invite war. Trump admin would use as saber to rally electoral support. The diplomatic Wolf Warriors would relish it... and the military ones?