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Hypothetically, if China ends up with a mortality rate similar to other East Asian countries, total deaths will likely not be at a politically unmanageable level. The Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, New Zealand, Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, have had total covid deaths per 100k population from 60 to 30. This compares to over 300 in the US, UK, Brazil. 30/100k would translate to around 420k deaths out of china’s 1.4bn. That’s probably only 2-3 times a bad flu year, and in any case covid death statistics cover 2-3 years but counted as a single number per 100k (why they do this is strange, when other disease statistics are done annually). Of course a lot depends on how badly omicron is going to hit china and whether or not people all rush to hospitals seeking treatment for even minor fevers etc. and crash the system. But if managed properly, it could end up being just a really bad flu year and then life goes on. In any case, the people have spoken, so the party more or less has a mandate to go ahead.

Dec 3, 2022
at
2:27 AM