It's not happening re China b/c, among many other factors, (1) earlier elite capture of China policy, which has now resulted in substantial interdependence and interconnections, (2) continued elite capture of certain aspects of China policy (see, e.g., push back on export controls, lobbying re Xinjiang cotton ban, USG pushing for opening up of Chinese financial services markets), (3) ability of the CCP to leverage such interdependence and coopted elite, (4) wasteful foreign entanglements elsewhere that resulted in decreased capacity and influence, and (5) no clear grand strategy on China or the CCP.