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When China has an MRNA vaccine that works and it's population has been vaccinated, perhaps we will see more opening. Early returns on China's MRNA vaccine (developed of course with the PLA) are not terribly encouraging. 3-shot regimen that isn't as effective as other MRNA vaccines. China also will have to produce at scale to vaccinate 1.4 billion. All of that will take time. And of course there is not an insignificant risk that by the time China has its MRNA vaccine ready, a new variant -- or variants -- will have arisen that will make China's vaccine even less effective. China's Zero COVID strategy hardly cost free, and think there is a good reason why Eurasia Group highlighted it as a high risk for 2022.

Feb 18, 2022
at
3:09 PM