I think you're missing the forest for the trees. Whether the jabs work was never the point. The central question is whether we have an indvidual right to refuse medical treatment we don't want. It doesn't matter if the jab freshens breath or grants superpowers. I have the right to say no.

The admin used legal pretenses to try to work around that question while at the same time trying to remove that right. The court then made a political decision to split the baby. It refused the pretense in the OSHA decision, but allowed it for CMS.

If nothing else we should be very aware of the fact there is no such thing as "free" federal money. It has chains attached.