A few notes regarding the Chengdu closure:

1) Yes it is happening. The staff there has already been informed that they must leave China within 30 days. There is no "reshuffling" or assignment to other missions. Many of the staff who evacuated literally just returned to China a few days ago and are still in quarantine. They will have to turn around and leave as soon as their quarantine ends. My thoughts go out to them as I know many of them truly love Chengdu and were looking forward to getting back to work. 2) US Consulate Chengdu is not a small consulate by world standards. They had dozens of Americans assigned there and about twice as many locally hired staff. Similar to when the international newspapers had to close shop earlier this year, many of those local staff members will be out of a job unexpectedly in a tough market. These are experienced professionals that have dedicated many years, even decades to advancing U.S.-China relations. Very sad to contemplate. 3) Chengdu's district covered Tibet and while access is extremely restricted there had been some success in recent years gaining permission to visit. While still closely monitored, sending an officer to meet with Tibetan Americans in the area or to meet with local officials was a much more organic type of access than a dog and pony show for high-level U.S. officials visiting from Beijing. The loss of access will hurt. 4) Shenyang, Chengdu, and Wuhan were the U.S.'s only consulates in tier 2 cities. With Chengdu shuttered and Wuhan effectively if not officially closed, we have lost almost all of our visibility on China outside of the big three. This is not good news for on the ground reporting or for conducting public diplomacy (such as it is in China). It will also make providing support for U.S. citizens in these areas difficult if not impossible.

All that being said, I believe the significance of this action is going to involve significant pain for the CCP side. Chengdu is one of China's fastest growing cities economically and a lot of that came from direct foreign investment. You can feel it when you travel there. Drawing down the diplomatic community and forcing business travelers to go to Beijing or Guangzhou for visas will impact the international stature of the city in a way that won't really be the case in Houston.