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Re 1: I think, like most others, a Sherman-Le meeting would lay the groundwork for a Blinken-Wang/Yang meeting and then eventually a Biden-Xi meeting (likely at the G20). Perhaps there could be a discussion on issues of mutual concern - a different tone and purpose than Anchorage - but I'm not sure how much it would differ from past discussions. The potential visit, along with the CNN article noting the Biden administration's desire for a hotline, seems to indicate that Washington wants to inject a degree of calm into the relationship. I suppose, for the moment, this is better than nothing.

While I am hopeful for a meeting, I'm not sure if it will happen. The recent business advisories for Xinjiang and Hong Kong, along with the recent Hong Kong sanctions and Xinjiang legislation (I would also expect more sanctions soon given the business advisory), do not create a positive atmosphere for a meeting (see Anchorage). Xi could very well believe that Biden must make the first positive step in order to "improve" the relationship. If so, I'm not so sure Washington will play ball.

Jul 16, 2021
at
7:26 PM