On he issue of Taiwan doesn’t the historic record of the past 70 plus years tell us the threats are really tied to internal Chinese political issue. With all Xi faces internally as outlined so well in other comments, isn’t the ratchet up best explained as a way to bring pressure to bear internally? The great threat is not overt acts of war but a mistake from saber rattling by a low level operative at the scene which lead to war. E.g. Some idiot either fires a middle from the air or his brethren in idiocy shoots down a plane testing the limits of air space. This can get out of control quickly