While opponents of a proposed pension reform that will see the retirement age increase in France from 62 to 64 by 2030 are surely loud, the voice of those who support it is muted.
With the din of massive and historic demonstrations and the tumult of the debates in the Assemblée Nationale, it is almost easy to forget that there are French people who support the government's project.
They are a minority, of course, and do not get much publicity, especially in the face of regular gatherings of up to two million protesters in the streets. But, according to various opinion polls, about a third of the population supports the reform.
This proportion has remained overall stable since the beginning of January. "It is a very weak support, in absolute terms," said Brice Teinturier, a political analyst and a deputy director with polling group Ipsos. "Especially for such an emblematic reform."
"What strikes me particularly is the fact that the support is weak," said Frédéric Dabi, director general with polling institute IFOP.
"If we only take into account people who say they are completely in favor [of the reform], we never exceed 10%."
For pollsters, this relative support is unprecedented. In any case, it is weaker than usual for reforms of such magnitude and, above all, less important than for other projects carried out by French President Emmanuel Macron during his first term.
An 'indispensable' reform
Macron can rely on the influence of his supporters, with about two-thirds of the members of Renaissance, his political party, backing the reform. But electoral and ideological loyalty to the head of state is not necessarily a fundamental support parameter.
For Thomas Cadéac, who did not vote for Macron in the first round of the presidential election on April 10, 2022, it is the "indispensable" nature of the reform that leads him to support it. He said the aging of the population and increasing life expectancy were elements that make it inevitable to raise the legal retirement age.
"Especially since the reform comes late," said the former regional director in wealth management, now enrolled in an MBA. He was already in favor of the previous reform in 2010, during Nicolas Sarkozy's five-year term.
According to Teinturier, for his previous reforms, "Macron could rely on a much stronger base among his supporters, between 70% and 80%."
Cedric Roost also chose not to vote for Macron in the first round. "I am also very critical of other reforms carried out by the government," said the head of an insurance business in the Vosges, eastern France. The situation of the pension system "may not yet be totally disastrous, but it requires choices to be made now," he said. For many, the general concern is over the balance of the system.
Roost said he did not forget the "whatever it takes" policy decided by France during the Covid-19 pandemic. "Some people have a short memory. We must not forget that the state has helped us a lot since Covid, so contributing to the effort by working all a little more is feasible."
The need for a collective effort is more easily acceptable to certain categories of the population. "When you look at the structure of support, the strongest comes from people who are little or not affected by the reform," Dabi said.
"There were many concessions made, and that's good, in order to protect those who were most affected by the reform," Cadéac said. "The government is taking notice, so you have to give them credit."
Youth's fear of the future
Cadéac added the changes that the government wishes to operate "should have been made a long time ago". "Without reform, it is the young people like me who will be victims later," the 36-year-old said, adding that he "does not understand why young people are taking to the streets."
Part of the support for reform lies precisely in this fear of the future on the part of young people. A fraction of those under 35 is certain that the system is so broken that they will have nothing left when it is time for them to retire.
"This pessimistic vision of the future encourages support for the idea that reform is needed and translates into new strategies for preparing for retirement, with private systems, pension funds..." Teinturier said.
Others would also like to return to the reformist logic of Macron's first five years in office, echoing the words of the head of state during his new year address to the French on December 31, 2022, when he stated his ambition to "continue to transform our country in the face of corporatism."
This is the case of Véronique – she spoke on condition of anonymity – who had been enthusiastic about the aborted reform for a universal pension system in 2019. "There had already been blockages," the 57-year-old accountant said. "Whatever the project, people are not happy. So, even if this reform is less ambitious, too bad, we have to support it."
If these French individuals support the reform, it is also because, as they believe, there is no alternative. "Retirement at 60? Who believes in this, frankly?", Roost said. "The proposals of the NUPES [the left-leaning New Popular Ecological and Social Union alliance] to finance the system are simply to tax more and more. It's very limited of a project."
For the moment, this support is neither increasing nor decreasing. One element that could change the situation, however, is the outcome of the protests. "Blocking the country or hard strikes can have a strong effect on public opinion," Dabi said. This was the main reason behind the union's decision to take every precaution to avoid alienating the French people.
In their ultimatum to the government, the unions call to put France "on a halt" on Tuesday, March 7, without ever using the word "blockade."