Joe Biden boxes Republicans into a corner on Social Security, Medicare with an eye on 2024

WASHINGTON — Round one of the debt-ceiling standoff is going about as well as the White House hoped after President Joe Biden boxed Republicans into a corner on Social Security and Medicare, recasting the debate over spending cuts as a fight to protect two of the most popular government programs.

It's not just a short-term play. Biden bolstered the economic message he's making to blue-collar voters and seniors ahead of an expected reelection campaign for 2024.

First came the heckling during Biden's State of the Union address last week. After Republicans roundly booed the president when he accused them of wanting to cut Social Security, Biden seemed to get their verbal commitment – on the floor of the House, no less – not to touch either program. 

More:Amid debt ceiling standoff, why Joe Biden is refusing to negotiate with Republicans

But then top Republicans kept digging in. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., defended his proposal to sunset all federal programs every five years and Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., derided Social Security as a "legal Ponzi scheme."

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The tit for tat created precisely the contrast the White House wants as Biden pushes for raising the debt ceiling without conditions and – looking further ahead – positions himself for 2024.

The latest in the back and forth

• Reliving heated exchange: Biden relished in revisiting the heckling episode during post-State of the Union trips to Wisconsin and Florida, telling his supporters that he seemed to get a deal from Republicans. "Sounded like they agreed to take these cuts off the table," he said in Tampa. "Now, granted, I’ll believe it when I see it."
• No details about cuts: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has publicly already ruled out cuts to Medicare and Social Security during debt ceiling talks. But Biden has tried to exploit Republicans' unwillingness to detail the spending cuts they want by warning about past GOP proposals and remarks targeting the two programs.
• A gift: That's why Scott gave the White House a gift in an interview last Thursday on CNN, saying he doesn't believe it was a mistake to propose a plan to sunset all federal laws including Social Security and Medicare. 
• Summer deadline: The U.S. on Jan. 19 hit the $31.8 billion limit on how much the federal government is allowed to borrow, prompting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures." The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday the U.S. will run out of cash between July and September if the debt ceiling isn't raised.
• Soaring costs: Social security and Medicare are major drivers of national debt that's projected to soar by $19 trillion over the next decade, according to the CBO. The annual cost of Social Security is projected to nearly double from $1.3 trillion this year to $2.4 trillion by 2033 as more Americans age into the program. The cost of Medicare is expected to increase from $820 billion this year to $1.6 trillion in 2033.

Where the fight goes from here

Drawing a hard line against negotiations, Biden wants Republicans to cave on their demands for spending cuts so Congress can raise the debt limit and avert a government default.

The White House is banking on spending cuts proposed by Republicans being so unpopular among Americans that enough Republican members of Congress will abandon demands for Congress to act. 

Playing to fears about losing Social Security and Medicare is part of a broader White House strategy to paint potential cuts as unacceptable. 

The Republican-led House Budget Committee last week floated potential cuts that include work requirements for food stamps, environmental reductions, rescinding unspent COVID-19 rescue funds, reducing Obamacare subsidies and halting Biden's plan to forgive student loan debt. Their framework said Republicans want to "save and strengthen" Social and Medicare but didn't say how. The White House lambasted the suggested cuts as an assault on the middle class. 

After Biden and McCarthy held their first meeting Feb. 1 to discuss the debt limit, both men, surprisingly, expressed optimism but also made clear they're sticking to their positions. It's unclear when they will meet again. The Biden administration plans to propose a budget on March 9. 

Takeaways for '24 

While Biden's focus on Social Security and Medicare plays into the short-term debt-ceiling fight, there's also a long-term strategy. 

Biden is reinforcing his message to blue-collars voters ahead of a 2024 reelection campaign that he's expected to announce in the coming weeks.

Seizing on past GOP proposals targeting Social Security and Medicare, Biden is casting Republicans as threats to social welfare programs borne out of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson's Great Society.

More:As Biden prepares 2024 reelection run, Democrats worry blue-collar voters are slipping away

The White House is building an economic case to non-college-educated voters who have increasingly flocked the Democratic Party and supported Republicans amid the culture wars. In particular, Democrats are targeting women voters over 50 years old who didn't attend college – the type of voter most concerned about Social Security. 

These voters, particularly in Midwest states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan that Biden narrowly carried in 2020, will be crucial for Biden to win again in 2024.

What they're saying

• Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist and senior advisor for the Lincoln Project, said Republicans opened themselves up to attacks after targeting entitlements for years. "He made them own it," Trippi said of Biden, "and I think that's what will happen going into 2024."
• William Howell, a political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, called Biden's rhetoric "short-term partisan politics" that sets the stage for a campaign. "He wants to present himself as the stalwart defender of the most significant entitlement programs enacted in the 20th century, which have broad public support," Howell said. 
• Republicans, furious Biden keeps brining up Social Security and Medicare, say he's spreading falsehoods. "The one thing the president was saying is something that he knew was not true," House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Fox News of Biden's State of the Union. "I just spent an hour with him. I’ve said it many times before: Social Security and Medicare are off the table."
• Some top Republicans, however, have sought to distance themselves from Scott's sunset proposal. “Unfortunately, that was the Scott plan, that’s not a Republican plan," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a radio interview.

The big picture 

The White House has raised Social Security and Medicare at about every turn since Biden's State of the Union.

And even though Republicans say Biden is lying about their intentions, don't expect Biden to stop talking about it anytime soon – especially with a reelection announcement around the corner.

The longer Biden can keep Republicans on defense over Social Security and Medicare, the more it's a winning issue for the White House. 

Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.