Tina Fordham’s Post

The conventional wisdom in #financialmarkets says the following: -#geopolitiicalrisk is a low-probability, high-impact tail risk for markets - #MiddleEast risks have now subsided and the risk of re-escalation is low -the #RussiaUkraine conflict is a war of attrition that will remain contained -#China won’t attack #Taiwan or its neighbours because it would be economically disastrous -#Trump is the most likely winner of the U.S. elections We say that the period between now and #US elections in November will be a Danger Zone for geopolitical risk—with meaningful implications for the business and investment environment beyond November 5th… To hear our views, join the Fordham Global Foresight webinar “Unconventional Wisdom” on Thursday April 25 at 8:30 am EST/1:30 pm UKT 30 minutes of sharp, forward-looking insights about global forces and their investment implications from two industry veterans in #financialservices, me and my business partner, ex-Chief Risk Officer and derivatives trader Martyn Brush It’s free to join (this time). Register via the link in the comments #independentsdvisors

“We’ve never had so many front row geopolitical spectacles at once” Fantastic to join Frank Holland in the CNBC London studio for Worldwide Exchange this morning to discuss the geopolitical outlook after a fraught couple of weeks, including the very welcome news here in Europe that the US House of Representatives has finally approved the long-delayed military aid package for #Ukraine. As I told Frank, this is not just a case the U.S. doing the right thing, this is about the geostrategic calculus that the US and our allies are operating in and so the decision is a major breakthrough (and one that apparently wrong-footed the Kremlin). Listen for more, including my views on the Middle East and the South China Sea, and whether the historic transmission mechanism of oil prices still captures #geopoliticalrisk in an era of U.S. energy independence. #geopolitics #oilprices #independentadvisors Fordham Global Foresight Edwina Frawley-Gangahar https://lnkd.in/dRxmFRgA

Geopolitical risks have been building steadily since the global financial crisis, and as you know, our thesis is that we have entered a new #Geopolitical Risk Supercycle, evidenced most recently by the escalation in the #MiddleEast conflict. Business leaders seem markedly more worried about #Geopolitics than traders do. It's worth considering this disconnect in more detail. The muted market reaction to the most recent uptick in geopolitical risk reflects factors ranging from U.S. energy independence to inexperience with reading geopolitical signals. These chains of events don’t lend themselves to decision trees. Our approach suggests thinking of geopolitics as part of a highly fluid ecosystem encompassing economics, markets, society and technology, each factor influencing shifts in the overall dynamic.  Click below to read more about our latest views.

A great conversation with Bloomberg News Francine Lacqua and Marc Champion about how to read the signals in the Middle East conflict. I discussed how we should remain on high alert when it comes to the risk of further escalation in the region: Israel has now shown it can and will fire deep inside Iranian territory, in close proximity to Iran’s nuclear sites. The Israeli attack should be seen as a warning shot; Israel may yet strike again, and will likely resume its action in Gaza. The proxy war will continue. And the pressure on the US to remain highly engaged in the Middle East is only going to increase. https://lnkd.in/dcXaTHGq #geopolitics #financialmarkets #independentadvisors Fordham Global Foresight

Overnight #Israel struck what appear to be military targets inside #Iranian territory near Isfahan. #Oil markets jumped on the news before falling back, seemingly concluding that if the early morning attack was the extent of the Israeli military response to the Iranian missile and drone barrage of April 13th then the worst is over. Our view is that the Israeli strike was intended as a warning to Iran. We expect that Israel will shortly resume its military operations in #Gaza, potentially expanding to the offensive in Rafah that the Biden administration has been trying to prevent. Market participants should be prepared for zero Fed rate cuts in 2024, barring an outbreak of brotherly love. 

I was delighted to be a guest this week on Bloomberg’s “In the City” podcast with the brilliant Francine Lacqua and David Merritt. A hugely stimulating and wide ranging discussion, we talked, among other things about how #Iran broke a long held taboo with the retaliatory strike it launched on #Israel from Iranian territory, a decision that represents a major uptick in the region’s risk level. I also talked about how market participants who concluded the action was symbolic were mistaken. And that the robust performance of Israeli air defences, and the depth of cooperation with allies leave Iran’s military looking less formidable, serving as a gift to #Netanyahu as his political future hangs by a thread. You can listen to the podcast episode here. → https://lnkd.in/dYDVEnWB

Markets: Geopolitics Matter.  Speaking to Sonali Basak on Bloomberg in New York this week, I reminded viewers that “Wars are inflationary”. While it can be difficult to make the precise connection to market fundamentals, I stressed that even if the risk to Brent crude isn’t $20 a barrel but is, say $5 or $6, that’s still significant, particularly in a market where every participant is looking for when and how fast inflation will start to come down. To keep up with my views on the changing situation, join our free private newsletter. → https://lnkd.in/dsKynvHq #Geopolitics

Happy birthday to Fordham Global Foresight. What a time to be in the business of geopolitical advisory. The past two years have been the most interesting--and challenging--of my 25-year career in the field. As I said to Hillary Clinton in the conversation in our highlight reel below, I have been training for this moment my entire career. Making sense of the world around us has never been more difficult. And it’s never been more important. As Fordham Global Foresight turns two, it’s against a backdrop of geopolitical upheaval that is challenging the established order and changing the very fabric of our societies and economies. We’re grateful to our clients from across financial services, law, insurance, private equity, private wealth, pharmaceutical, luxury & consumer goods and tech industries, our partners at Diligent and LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), and our fantastic friends and supporters for engaging with us and highlighting our work with their networks. I also want to thank the FGF team: my tireless business partner, CFO/CTO/COO Martyn Brush, the indefatigable Katie Vines, world's best PR Edwina Frawley-Gangahar, design and strategy guru and flaneur Jamie White, marketing whiz Francisco Ribeiro and our new EA Luyanda Dube for helping us grow our business by 27% in the past year. We’re proud of our unique contributions to the understanding and application of geopolitical risk, from our prescient “New Geopolitical Risk Supercycle” thesis to our PQ—Political Quotient— conceptual framework and our signature digital playbook, The Navigator. To learn more about our latest views, join the FGF Q2 Geopolitical Outlook webinar - https://lnkd.in/eqWWmsNj

"We're still in the Danger Zone". In this episode of The Navigator, our digital playbook produced in collaboration with LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), I assess the recent events in the #MiddleEast and warn that the period between now and #USElections will be very bumpy geopolitically. All in under 5 minutes. Register to join our free webinar, Q2 Geopolitical Outlook: Unconventional Wisdom on April 25th 2024 at 8:30 EST/1:30 GMT. → https://lnkd.in/eqWWmsNj #Geopolitics

The escalation in the #MiddleEast conflict we’ve been warning of has materialised. We also expect a Russian Spring Offensive in #Ukraine, taking advantage of U.S. distraction and political infighting. Register below for our 30-minute webinar on April 25th about the key #geopoliticalrisks to watch in Q2, and find out why I say we’ve entered the #DangerZone, with geopolitical risks likely to intensify ahead of #USelections Places are limited, first-come, first-served… #geopolitics #financialmarkets #independentadvisors #geopoliticalrisksupercycle