EU election forecast: Far-right consolidates third position, Italy’s left gains ground

Far-right Identity and Democracy Group (ID) and conservative European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) come third and fourth, respectively, in voting intention, and the right-wing bloc holds on to a blocking majority, while Fratelli d’Italia loses three seats and the Italian Greens-Left Alliance gains five, according to Euractiv’s mid-January projections ahead of the EU elections in June.

The ID group consolidates its position as the third most-voted party across member states with 12.5% and 93 seats that would make it Parliament’s third force.

The far-right emerges as the most-voted force in France with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, in the Netherlands with Geert Wilders’ PVV, and in Austria with FPÖ.

The ID’s surge across Europe could change the leadership of the group as France, Germany, and the Netherlands overtake Italy’s Lega as the biggest national parties with 27, 21 and 12 seats, respectively.

Lega falls from 22 MEPs to eight as Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) siphons off votes.

A right-wing blocking majority composed of ID, ECR, EPP, Hungary’s top party Fidesz, and France’s far-right Reconquête prevails with 367 seats, which together already acted as disruptors for the adoption of the controversial nature restoration law, meaning this could spell trouble for future environmental legislation.

Speaking to Euractiv’s partner EFE in Rome over the weekend, S&D chief Iratxe García Pérez accused the EPP of “normalising” the far right with consequences for EU citizens.

She noted that besides the dangerous surge of the far-right in Europe, the “determining factor [of these consequences] is the policy of alliances after the elections” because, although until now “the traditional alliances of pro-European forces have been a reality”, in 2023 we have seen “that the EPP is opening the doors and normalising the far-right”.

In an interview with Euractiv in September 2023, EPP Secretary-General Thanasis Bakolassaid said he eyed a pro-EU coalition with the Socialists, the Greens and the Liberals, although he warned that after the elections, environmental policies should be based on “pragmatism”.

The European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) is the fifth force in terms of seats with 80 projected MEPs, but it is the fourth group in terms of popular vote with 10.9%, just above liberal Renew, which scores 10.3% and 84 seats – a 24 seat drop since the 2019 elections.

ECR is the first most-voted party in Italy thanks to Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, despite the party dropping three seats from December’s projections to 23.

Despite not making it in the 2019 elections, recent European Parliament polls for Italy suggest the left-green alliance ‘Allianza Verde Sinistra’ would make it just above the 4% threshold, awarding them five seats: three allocated to the Greens/EFA and two for the Left group.

The Italian socialists, Partito Democratico, stays stable at 17 seats.

The socialists and democrats (S&D) group earn one extra seat, to 143, while they are the most-voted force in four countries: Sweden, Lithuania, Romania, and Belgium.

Rumours swirling of Jobs and Social Rights Commissioner Nicolas Schmit becoming the frontrunner in the EU socialists lead candidate race, with himself telling Euractiv that “my name is circulating” and that he would accept the position if he were asked, could mean trouble for his colleague, Luxembourgish socialist party LSAP MEP Marc Angel  – particularly since LSAP only scored one seat in 2019.

However, Angel can breathe a sigh of relief as current projections award LSAP two seats for now.

The European People’s Party (EPP) loses one seat to 178 but is the most-voted force in nine countries: Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Croatia, and Spain.

The only EPP-affiliated national party with significant changes since December’s projections is Romania’s People’s Movement Party (PMP), which enters Parliament again after losing its two seats in December’s projection.

The Left group, dropping to 37 seats as opposed to 41 in 2019, is the most voted force in Cyprus and Ireland, which could trigger leadership change if Ireland’s Sinn Féin keeps surging, as it is now projected six MEPs, as opposed to just one seat in 2019.

The current group’s leading party is La France Insoumise, currently projected to win seven seats.

The Greens/EFA contain their freefall at 50 seats, 24 less than in 2019.

*Infographics by Esther Snippe, Tobias Gerhard Schminke, and Max Griera

(Max Griera | Euractiv.com)

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