Weekly Roundup: Sylvia Fowles’ Farewell, First-Round Predictions, and the MVP Debate
Breaking down the first-round playoff series, A’ja versus Stewie, and Sylvia Fowles’ retirement
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With apologies to former NFL coach Jim Mora, let’s talk about playoffs! After 216 regular-season games (plus one Commissioner’s Cup final) and 101 days, the WNBA postseason has finally arrived. Entering last week, six teams had clinched playoff berths. New York punched its postseason ticket with a pair of wins over Atlanta. Phoenix rounded out the field of eight with an 86-74 win over Dallas Friday night coupled with Minnesota’s loss to Connecticut in the season finale on Sunday.
Will we see some August madness? If so, who’s most likely to pull off a first-round shocker? The journey towards those answers begins tomorrow night!
Player of the Week: Sylvia Fowles
Other players put up better numbers. Other players’ teams were more successful. No one touched fans’ hearts more than Sylvia Fowles this past week. While her WNBA career ended on Sunday, it was heartwarming seeing Fowles get the send-off she deserves - a 32-minute nationally televised retirement ceremony in front of a home crowd Friday night. She’s the greatest center in league history, and, by all accounts, an even better person and teammate. Several outlets have done a superb job encapsulating this sentiment - below is a sample.
The Ringer’s Mirin Fader wrote a beautiful profile on Fowles. As Fader explained, it’s a story about selflessness, self-love, resilience, finding one's own voice, and sheer dominance.
For WNBA.com, Mark Schindler recounted his conversation with Fowles during All-Star weekend where they discussed the media’s lack of coverage for certain players, how Fowles developed into one of the W’s best defenders of all time, and her passion for jazz music.
The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings and Jon Krawczynski approached several of Fowles’ current and former teammates, coaches, and opposing players with a simple prompt: what’s your best Sylvia Fowles story?
ESPN’s Kevin Van Valkenburg spoke with Sylvia Fowles about her post-WNBA plans, which include pursuing a career as a mortician.
Focusing on Fowles’ performance on the court, our own Cindy Smith demonstrated how remarkably consistent and dominant Fowles has been throughout her 15-year career.
First-round playoff predictions
Accurately predicting the future is hard, especially when it comes to this season in the WNBA. So, I’ve called on fellow Her Hoop Stats contributor Aneela Khan to assist with such a difficult task. Here are our predictions for the first round of the WNBA playoffs.
No. 1 Las Vegas versus No. 8 Phoenix
Las Vegas won the regular-season series 3-0.
FiveThirtyEight gives Las Vegas a 90% chance to advance to the semifinals.
Aneela: Seeing how Las Vegas finished their regular season as the No. 1 team in the WNBA and took it from the Chicago Sky via the tiebreaker, this is an easy sweep for the Aces. I believe they will go 2-0 over Phoenix because two out of the three regular season games were blowouts. I do want to commend Phoenix for making the playoffs because this has not been an easy year for them, both on and off the court.
Adam: Remember the talk of a superteam in Phoenix after Tina Charles signed with the Mercury in February? It feels like eons ago given how much has happened since then. Brittney Griner tragically remains wrongfully detained in Russia; Tina Charles left Phoenix for Seattle in June; Diana Taurasi is out for the rest of the season with a quad injury; and Skylar Diggins-Smith is also finished for the year. It’s been a tumultuous year for the Mercury, but somehow they snuck into the postseason by virtue of a win Friday night over Dallas (plus some help from other teams).
So, can the new-look Mercury shock the basketball world and knock off top-seeded Las Vegas? I put their chances at slim to none, and slim just left the building. Sure, Sophie Cunningham - 12.6 points per game, 40% from long distance, and a league-leading 1.11 points per play - has compiled a marvelous season worthy of Most Improved Player consideration, and Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy, and Brianna Turner bring valuable playoff experience to the table. However, knocking off a team with the second-highest offensive rating of all time is too high a mountain to climb. Vegas in 2.
No. 4 Seattle versus No. 5 Washington
Seattle won the regular-season series 2-1.
FiveThirtyEight gives Seattle a 66% chance to advance to the semifinals.
Aneela: Out of all the series taking place in the first round, this should be so much fun to watch. I cannot wait to watch Breanna Stewart and Elena Delle Donne battle one another. This one is tough to decide as to who will win because both teams have star players, good role players, good guards, etc. In the regular season, two out of the three games were very close and they split those two. It’s hard to pick a winner right now.
Adam: I agree that this will be a classic, Aneela. Stewie versus EDD. Bird versus Cloud. The league’s two best defenses in terms of defensive rating. As much as I’ve knocked the WNBA for its playoff format changes, I’m thrilled that this matchup isn’t confined to a single-elimination game.
Stewart’s put up MVP-caliber numbers this season (more on that later on in the roundup) and Delle Donne has quietly compiled another outstanding season in terms of offensive efficiency. The league leader in assists this year, Cloud averaged 9.7 dimes and 2.3 turnovers per contest versus Seattle In the “anything you can do, I can do better department,” Bird averaged 7.3 assists and 0.7 turnovers in the teams’ trio of meetings, an absurd assist-to-turnover ratio of 11.
If this series were a 1-1-1 format, I would say this one probably goes the distance. However, that’s not the case, of course. Home court rules the day, and Sue Bird isn’t done just yet. Seattle in 2.
No. 2 Chicago versus No. 7 New York
Chicago won the regular-season series 3-1.
FiveThirtyEight gives Chicago an 83% chance to advance to the semifinals.
Aneela: The Chicago Sky want to defend their title, and they should be able to beat their first-round opponent. It won’t be easy, because the Liberty are coming off a hot stretch in which they won six out of their eight last regular season games. Ultimately, I see the Chicago Sky edging out the New York Liberty by winning the series 2-1.
Adam: The WNBA’s new 2-1 first-round playoff format (higher-seeded team hosts Games 1 and 2) seems tailor-made for an upset. If the lower-seeded team steals a road win in the first two games, it’s guaranteed to either win the series or host a series-deciding game. In fact, FiveThirtyEight estimates there’s a 35% chance of at least one of the top three seeds falling in the first round.
With such a preamble, I better be picking an upset here, right? I think New York turns the WNBA world upside down in a series that goes the distance. The Liberty were a Courtney Vandersloot game-winning three away from the regular-season series being 2-2. To be sure, fatigue likely played a role in the Liberty’s sole win versus Chicago, which came in the second game of a back-to-back for the Sky. However, New York is peaking at the right time. In addition to the 6-2 mark that Aneela mentioned above, the Liberty rank second in net rating during that stretch, outscoring opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions. Also, Betnijah Laney is slowly returning to form after missing most of the season with a torn meniscus.
Chicago boasts a star-studded lineup with three Finals MVPs (Emma Meesseman, Candace Parker, and Kahleah Copper) and six players averaging double figures in scoring. They appear primed to defend their title, but one stat that gives me pause is the number of close games in which they’ve been involved. They actually set the record this season, playing in 27 games that were decided by less than 10 points. The Sky won 19 of those games, tied for the league record. Some might view it as evidence of clutch play; others may believe that the Sky will draw on their championship experience and kick things into another gear come tomorrow night. Sorry, Sky fans, I’m more of a pessimist in this case. If you fly too close to the sun, you’re gonna get burned. Liberty in 3.
No. 3 Connecticut versus No. 6 Dallas
Dallas won the regular-season series 2-1.
FiveThirtyEight gives Connecticut an 87% chance to advance to the semifinals.
Aneela: Despite the great improvement the Dallas Wings have made this season, facing the Connecticut Sun is a tough first-round matchup. The Sun are a well-seasoned playoff team and should easily be able to advance. I think they will win 2-0, but if the Wings do make it a bit interesting, then I believe the Sun will win 2 games to 1. The reason why the Wings could make it interesting is because, just like the Liberty, the Wings also won six out of their last eight regular season games.
Adam: Second-chance points will be the name of the game in this series, which features the top three offensive rebounders in the league this season (Teaira McCowan, Brionna Jones, and Jonquel Jones). Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones have been outstanding this season, with Jonquel leading the league in individual defensive rating, and Brionna topping the W in individual offensive rating. But it’s been the post-All-Star break resurgence of McCowan that’s been riveting to watch. Her season-high point total prior to All-Star weekend was 18; she’s matched or eclipsed that five times since then.
Another subplot to watch is whether Dallas can make a deep postseason run without star guard Arike Ogunbowale. The on/off numbers suggest it’s possible. In games since the All-Star break, the Wings have outscored opponents by 12.5 more points per 100 possessions when Ogunbowale is off the court than when she’s on.
However, the Sun are playing their best basketball of the season. Remember how I mentioned New York is peaking at the right time? Well, Connecticut is really peaking at the right time. They’ve posted a net rating of 18.4 in August; no other team’s net rating cracks the 8.0 threshold during that time frame.
Sorry, Dallas, the Ewing Theory doesn’t prevail here: Connecticut in 2.
The great MVP debate
Who’s this season’s MVP: A’ja Wilson or Breanna Stewart? The two-person race for MVP has generated compelling discussions as to which player is most deserving of the WNBA’s highest individual accolade. For my money, the most fascinating aspect of this debate is just how many people believe there is no debate. In an admittedly unscientific poll tweeted out by Her Hoop Stats, more than a quarter of respondents think either 1) Wilson should win WNBA MVP in a landslide vote or b) Breanna Stewart should win the award in a landslide vote.
Part of me gets it. In the excitement of advocating for their preferred player, fans tend to express a level of confidence in their position that belies the reality of the situation. After all, the word fan is likely derived from “fanatic,” which Merriam-Webster defines as “marked by excessive enthusiasm and often intense uncritical devotion.” However, if one steps back and turns a critical eye toward the MVP race, I struggle to see how anyone arrives at any conclusion other than the margin between Wilson’s and Stewart’s 2022 campaigns is razor thin.
But for those who think this race isn’t close: on what are you basing this assertion? Roughly 85% of those in the “not even close” camp favor Wilson. A frequent pro-Wilson argument is that she got it done on both ends this season, which is undeniable. So, maybe the relative lack of available metrics measuring defensive impact causes WNBA observers to undervalue Wilson’s brilliance. However, it’s quite the leap to go from suggesting that Wilson is undervalued to thinking there shouldn’t be any question about who deserves this season’s MVP.
In a race this close, I think it’s only fair that we make like the movie Mean Girls and split the MVP trophy into pieces (as recently half-jokingly suggested by Lindsay Gibbs). I can see it now: “A partial MVP for Breanna Stewart - you led the league in win shares and scoring and still found time to design a sick signature sneaker. A partial MVP for A’ja Wilson - you’re arguably the Defensive Player of the Year and have the highest on/off net rating differential in the W. You work so hard on both ends of the floor, and you still look like a rock star.”
All joking aside, maybe I’m overreacting to the number of people who think this year’s MVP is crystal clear. After all, the vast majority of respondents believe it to be a close race. It’s jarring though, as the whole landslide vote position is just not rooted in reality.
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a complete listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
On the Her Hoop Stats Podcast Network, Gabe Ibrahim, Calvin Wetzel, and Dano Mataya broke down the top six teams in the WNBA playoffs - Las Vegas, Chicago, Connecticut, Seattle, Washington, and Dallas.
In his New York Liberty Notebook, Heaven Hill analyzed New York’s late-season run that ultimately culminated in a playoff berth.
In the latest WNBA Dissected, Richard Cohen touched on the impact of All-WNBA teams going positionless, the mysterious Chennedy Carter situation in Los Angeles, and to what extent the Ewing Theory applies to Arike Ogunbowale.
Kim Doss offered a look inside what Arizona, Arizona State, California, and Colorado will look like this season in Part 1 of a three-part series previewing the Pac-12.
Other recommended content
For The Athletic, Richard Deitsch spoke with Dr. Dani Gilbert, a Rosenwald Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy and International Security at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College, about the latest developments in the Brittney Griner case.
The Washington Post’s Kareem Copeland chronicled the dynamic between Mystics associate head coach Eric Thibault and his father (Mystics head coach Mike Thibault), Eric’s lifelong passion for basketball, and how he’s established himself as the likely successor to his father in Washington.
This season, Jackie Young knocked down 50 three-pointers - 28 more than in her first three WNBA seasons combined. For WNBA.com, Mark Schindler broke down the significant improvement in Young’s jump shot.
In a pair of compelling player profiles for Basketball News, Nekias Duncan analyzed the critical role Teaira McCowan has played in Dallas’ late-season run and broke down film with Aces point guard Chelsea Gray
For The Next, Jenn Hatfield explored how the uber-confident Shakira Austin has made an immediate impact during her rookie season in Washington.
As part of her And One series for Just Women’s Sports, Lyndsey D’Arcangelo spoke with DiDi Richards about the ways she wanted to improve in year 2, the reasons for New York’s up-and-down season, and why her pursuit of a career in modeling.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
Despite the three-point revolution, only three active players are in the top 10 of the WNBA’s career made three-pointers list. Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird, who rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, are two of the active players. Who’s the third active player, clocking in at No. 7 on the list?
Answer: Kristi Toliver
And now, here’s this week’s question:
For a second consecutive season, Brittney Sykes led the WNBA in steals per game this year. Who was the last player to top the W in steals per game in back-to-back seasons?
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