Russian Artillery Gunners Are Getting Cocky. As Ukraine Runs Out Of Ammo, Russian Guns Gather For Devastating Salvos.

When U.S. aid to Ukraine ran out in late December and pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress refused to vote on Pres. Joe Biden’s proposal to spend another $61 billion on the war effort, Ukraine’s artillery batteries were the first to feel this betrayal.

That’s because American had been one of the biggest donors of howitzers and rocket-launchers—and ammunition for both.

Where as recently as this summer, Ukraine’s artillery enjoyed parity with, if not superiority over, Russia’s own artillery, today the Russians have a fivefold advantage. Ukrainian batteries fire around 2,000 shells a day. Russian batteries fire 10,000.

And as a result, Russian gunners are getting cocky. Unworried by the risk of Ukrainian gunners firing back at them, the Russians are concentrating their biggest guns and launchers for devastating salvos targeting Ukrainian positions in front-line cities.

Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight detected the trend in satellite imagery of the 600-mile front line of Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine.

“In January alone, Frontelligence Insight recorded over 14 concentrations of artillery and enemy forces,” the group reported. “Our analysis suggests that this resurgence signals a decreasing fear among Russian forces, possibly fueled by renewed ammunition shortages on the Ukrainian side.”

The group highlighted one cluster of nearly 20 revetments for artillery or other vehicles outside Lysychansk, five miles from the line of contact in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast.

A year ago, the Russians probably wouldn’t have risked clustering so much heavy weaponry out in the open in such a small area so close to the front. Ukraine’s M777 howitzers and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, respectively ranging 15 and 57 miles, might’ve blasted the Russians into oblivion.

But with artillery and rocket ammo dwindling, the Ukrainian military is saving what shells and rockets it has for the direst emergencies: striking Russian troops and their vehicles as they’re about to break through Ukrainian lines.

“Regrettably, this situation empowers Russia to execute a well-known approach,” Frontelligence Insight explained. “The systematic destruction of urban areas, rendering them indefensible.”

The group pointed to Marinka, a city in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian troops held out in Marinka for nearly two years. But as their ammo ran low, Russian artillery was able to mass for a devastating bombardment.

In late December, Russian guns “systematically obliterated the entire city, leaving almost no trace of any structure or dwelling,” Frontelligence Insight recalled.

The Ukrainian garrison had nowhere left to hide. It retreated to the west—and handed Russia a propaganda victory. “The relentless bombardment reduced Marinka to complete oblivion, only for the aggressors to subsequently claim liberation.”

Closer to the front, Ukrainian brigades have compensated for their artillery starvation by flinging more and more explosive first-person-view drones—tens of thousands per month—at attacking Russian regiments.

But a typical radio-controlled FPV drone, weighing two pounds and hauling a one-pound grenade, ranges just two miles or so. “Based on our observations, numerous artillery pieces are positioned at distances ranging from 15 to 24 kilometers [nine to 15 miles] away from the front line, rendering them beyond the practical reach of the majority of small FPVs.”

The imminent arrival of Ukraine’s new Ground-Launched Small-Diameter Bombs—rocket-boosted glide-munitions that the United States paid for early last year—could weigh on Russia’s firepower advantage. A GPS-guided GLSDB ranges more than 90 miles.

But we don’t know how many GLSDBs Ukraine is getting—or how it might deploy them. “The potential introduction of GLSDB to Ukraine could indeed mark a significant turning point,” Frontelligence Insight conceded, “although it remains premature to draw definitive conclusions—especially considering the untested nature of this weaponry in a large-scale conventional conflict.

The surest way for Ukraine to restore artillery parity, prevent the demolition of more cities and turn Russian gunners’ growing complacency against them also is the most obvious. Somehow acquire more shells and rockets for its howitzers and launchers.

Just don’t count on the Americans. While Biden has broad authority to donate surplus American weapons without first seeking Congressional approval, it’s not clear that authority applies to ammunition.