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The Fed's Growth Optimism Puts a Floor Under Rates
Officials are more bullish on America's growth prospects, which helps explain why they are somewhat less inclined to lower rates despite more confidence…
Mar 21
•
Matthew C. Klein
15
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The Fed's Growth Optimism Puts a Floor Under Rates
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Parsing the 2024 Inflation Rebound
Look past the volatility in the monthly data on wages and prices in January and February, and prior trends seem to be holding. The good news is that…
Mar 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
18
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Parsing the 2024 Inflation Rebound
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Türkiye's Incredible Balancing Act
The country of nearly 90 million has managed to keep growing rapidly despite an increasingly fragile financial structure. Can it continue?
Mar 7
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
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Türkiye's Incredible Balancing Act
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Inflation Is Still Hot, But Could Incomes Be Slowing?
There is not much reason to be comforted by the latest numbers on prices, but income growth may be slowing.
Mar 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
17
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Inflation Is Still Hot, But Could Incomes Be Slowing?
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February 2024
U.S. Inflation Surged in January. Is It a Fluke?
Prices jumped in many categories in the first month of the year. Some of that may be noise, and should be discounted accordingly, but it is difficult to…
Feb 15
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
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U.S. Inflation Surged in January. Is It a Fluke?
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China's Smaller Banks Are Getting Squeezed
PBOC lending to other depository corporations is up by 50% since mid-2022. That coincides with deposit migration away from small and medium sized banks…
Feb 7
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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China's Smaller Banks Are Getting Squeezed
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Wages Are Rising Faster than We Thought
The good news is that the personal savings rate is likely higher than previously estimated. But the underlying nominal growth impulse is stronger…
Feb 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
15
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Wages Are Rising Faster than We Thought
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January 2024
Can the EU Squeeze Hungary?
Hungary has a massive structural current account surplus, but the banking system has recently developed a currency mismatch that might be possible to…
Jan 31
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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Can the EU Squeeze Hungary?
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The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?
Real growth is running faster than 3%, nominal income growth is still 6-7%, and several drags are poised to reverse soon. Even with inflation…
Jan 27
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
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The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?
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America's Housing Rebound
Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not…
Jan 20
•
Matthew C. Klein
69
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America's Housing Rebound
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The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down
The good news for workers and businesses is that hiring and sales are still rising briskly. The potential wrinkle is that underlying inflation still…
Jan 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
77
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The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down
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Is the Fed Preparing to Taper Its Bond Redemptions?
Parsing the links between the Fed, money market funds, commercial banks, and the appropriate pace of balance sheet shrinkage.
Jan 12
•
Matthew C. Klein
31
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Is the Fed Preparing to Taper Its Bond Redemptions?
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