What UAE's control over Socotra Island means for India, rest of the world?

On March 31, the Yemeni Fisheries Ministry of the Sanaa-based National Salvation Government (NSG) strongly condemned transforming the Socotra Archipelago into a UAE military base. Earlier, satellite images released by the Intel Lab in November 2022 indicated the development of an airfield on Abd Al Kuri Island (Kilmia), part of the Socotra Archipelago in Yemen. In its tweet, the lab claims that two runway-shaped strips and a probable apron area have been identified.

Yemen’s government official told local broadcaster Al-Masirah TV that "new Emirati forces have arrived at Hadiboh airport on the main island of Socotra to prepare for their redeployment to Abd al-Kuri Island, where satellite imagery shows that new military facilities are under construction.” They further added that “the Saudi-led coalition occupies some of Yemen’s islands and beaches, destroys the environment, and displaces our people.” The NSG officials added before calling on the UN and other international organizations to “take responsibility for the attack on the Yemeni islands, their occupation, and the expulsion of our people by the countries of the aggression coalition.”

In recent years, the Socotra island in Yemen has become the focus of regional and international interest due to its strategic location at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, which is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, with around 21,000 ships, including 9 per cent of the world's annual oil supply, passing through Socotra annually, the Cradle reported. The island is situated near the Horn of Africa, a region that has been plagued by piracy and political instability. Its location makes it a valuable region for military operations, as it allows for surveillance of the shipping lanes, which can help in monitoring purposes as well as potential control over critical waterways.

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The Western Influence

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has cultivated close partnerships with various foreign countries, particularly in the military realm. One such instance is the Saudi-led coalition, the UAE and the United States, and Israel in establishing a military presence on Socotra island, a Yemeni territory.

Saudi Arabia: The UAE has reportedly invested significant resources into improving the infrastructure of the island, such as building a new airport and seaport, to support its military operations. The UAE's partnership with Saudi Arabia is particularly noteworthy, as the two countries have joined forces in various military campaigns in Yemen, including against the Houthi rebels, i.e, the militia backed by Iran. The UAE's military presence on Socotra island is believed to support these efforts, providing a staging ground for military operations in the region. Two years after the event, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is supported by the UAE, took control of the island by force and removed the forces backed by Saudi Arabia. The Emirati flag was hoisted throughout the region, and telecommunications companies from the UAE replaced those from Yemen.

Israel: The UAE has also established a military partnership with Israel, including joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. According to Yemen's local news agency, the UAE has opened Socotra to the Israeli military presence since the announcement of official diplomatic relations between them in the middle of 2020. Israel has established intelligence bases on Socotra island in cooperation with the Emirates. Al-Hilal Emirates Company, under The Red Crescent Society of the United Arab Emirates, had signed a contract with Israel to establish a spy and intelligence center for the Israeli Air Force at the airport in the city of Hadibo Airport, Tehran-based Fars News reported.

United States: Some Yemeni local media alleged the US military also has a presence on Socotra island, likely as part of a collaboration. The UAE's relationship with the US has been marked by a shared interest in combating terrorism and maintaining stability in the Middle East.

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Mercenaries' position in UAE’s military

According to a Reuters report, the United Arab Emirates has been relying on senior foreign military personnel, including Mike Hindmarsh, Australia's former top special forces general, to assist in its international military operations. These individuals provide valuable expertise and manpower to support the UAE's military objectives abroad. Hindmarsh, who is also known as Little Sparta by the US media, is the commander overseeing the Presidential Guard Command (PGC), the unit tasked with directing the UAE's campaign in Yemen. PGC is an elite force formed to perform special and covert assignments in overseas territories where the UAE has a military presence, and it also ensures the security of Mohammad bin Zayed (MBZ), the ruler of Abu Dhabi.

UAE’s Interest in military expansion in Socotra

The United Arab Emirates is undertaking a major project to develop Socotra Island into its main base for air, naval, and special operations forces, as well as the central command center for six naval bases in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean. The UAE has moved hundreds of troops with artillery and armoured vehicles to Socotra Island, which is 350 km from the Yemeni mainland, Reuters reported.

India Today spoke with defence expert Major General Dr Yash Mor (Retd), on the significance of Socotra Island and how it can be an asset for the UAE's broader regional objectives. Mor said, “The reshaping of the new world order has again put the spotlight on the crucial sea lines of communication (SLOC), emerging from the Gulf of Aden around the Horn of Africa. Since this, along with the Persian Gulf, opens into the high seas of the Indian Ocean.”

He added that “the island is in firm control of the UAE currently but other important regional and world powers are jostling for competition”.

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According to the Brookings Doha Center, a public policy institution based in Qatar, the government of Yemen led by President Abed Rabbo Mansur Hadi and Houthi rebels are two important players who have been fighting each other since 2014 after the Yemeni conflict. The government of Yemen is backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while the Houthis are supported by Iran. Despite the support of these regional powers, the Government of Yemen has not been able to defeat the Houthi rebels.

After Yemen entered into a civil war in 2015, the UAE has taken the second most important military role with its coalition partner Saudi Arabia. In addition to the coalition's controversial naval blockade of the country, one way the UAE dictates conditions in southern Yemen is through its control of the coastline, including several port cities and island outposts such as Aden, Mokha, Mukalla, Perim, and Socotra.

The UAE territorial control is about influencing war - countering Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), fighting Houthi forces, and deterring Iranian influence along 1200 miles of coastline. However, Abu Dhabi's long-term plans remain unclear, and critics see its expansion as tantamount to occupation. The UAE is unlikely to relinquish control of these valuable areas once the war in Yemen is over without at least affecting political and economic interests on the southern coast.

Could UAE's presence at Socotra benefit India?

India has historical links with Socotra Island as it served as an ancient trade route between India and the Arabian Peninsula. India also has strategic interests in the region, with the Gulf of Aden being an important transit route for shipping. However, it is facing a strategic challenge in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, where it needs to establish a strong position to safeguard its trade vessels and oil tankers. This challenge has been compounded by China's strategic military base in Djibouti, which is seen as a potential threat to Indian shipping routes and overall security.

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India Today's OSINT team spoke to strategic experts, Sanjeev Srivastava on Indian diplomacy and Major General Dr Yash Mor (Retd) on defence and maritime security. Both have focused on developing bilateral and multilateral relationships between India and the UAE.

Sanjeev Srivastava mentioned that “In July 2022, the two nations launched I2U2, a joint initiative aimed at increasing investment and collaboration in water, energy, transportation, space, health, and security”. The I2U2 Group is a cluster suggested by foreign policy thinkers, who made the strategic case for a broader "Indo-Abrahamic Alliance" that includes India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States. Srivastava suggested that "Socotra Island is strategically crucial for India and the UAE, enabling the Indian coast guard to protect its vessels from pirates and militias while keeping an eye on the busiest trade route." He emphasized the strategic and economic importance of Socotra Island for both countries.

Dr Yash Mor believes that India has strategic as well as trade interests in the region, and the defence diplomacy engagement with the UAE has been positive in recent years. In this context, he said, “To maintain smooth energy trade, India should take proactive measures to collaborate with the UAE and keep the strategic outpost free from rivalries. This includes joint naval exercises and cooperation to keep the sea lanes open.

He added, “India should engage with other regional players like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, and not wait for favourable circumstances but be proactive in the region.”

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According to Srivastava, "China aims to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and is closely monitoring the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden, with opportunistic, imperialistic, hegemonic, and colonial intentions." He suggested that to enhance its influence in the region, “India should partner with UAE on Socotra Island, stating that this move will give India better access to the Arabian Sea region." He highlighted that the strategically located Socotra Island would be critical in future maritime events to counter the Chinese naval presence in Djibouti.

Researchers and analysts suggest that India needs to further deepen its partnerships with Western allies, the UAE and Israel, to address the growing Chinese footprint in the region. The allies' increasing presence on Socotra Island presents an opportunity for India to strengthen its position in the area. In 2002, with Russia's assistance and negotiation with Tajikistan, India initiated the Ayni Project, India established its first inaugural military presence outside its borders to counter China and Pakistan, and to maintain a firm strategic grip in the region.

In February 2023, India participated in a trilateral meeting with France and UAE to enhance its strategic position in the Gulf and West Indian Ocean region, in which Jaishankar said the aim was to build “a stable, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific.” The Trilateral joint statement issued over the weekend also underscores efforts “to further promote compatibility and joint development and co-production whilst seeking out avenues for further collaboration and training between the three countries' defence forces.

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