Why China may be reluctant to get too deeply involved in Sudan peace efforts
- Despite long-standing Chinese ties to the North African nation and huge investments, observers see little appetite in Beijing for direct intervention
- Analysts point to factors such as tensions with the West, China’s support for the previous regime and Sudan’s declining importance as an oil exporter
More than 500 people have been killed and thousands wounded in Sudan since April 15, when fighting broke out between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary forces commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a former ally.
Beijing organised a Horn of Africa Peace Conference in the Ethiopian capital convened by its special envoy to the region, and supported the African Union’s efforts to mediate. However, it did not play a direct role in negotiations that ended with the signing of a peace treaty in November.
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But he also said Beijing would be reluctant to get as deeply involved in the current Sudan crisis as it was during the conflict in Darfur in western Sudan or the civil war in South Sudan, adding: “I have seen no evidence that China desires to get directly involved in efforts to resolve the Sudan crisis.”
Lukas Fiala, project coordinator of China Foresight at LSE Ideas, a London School of Economics think tank, said Sudan had emerged as a key partner for China long before the partition of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011.
Its relations with the two since then have become a litmus test for its overseas security strategy.
Fiala said the Darfur war drew attention to China’s growing role in Africa in the late 2000s, when its close ties to the al-Bashir government came under increased scrutiny in the run up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. “Sudan has thus long played an important role in shaping China’s global rise,” he said.
As a long-standing partner, China was certainly watching the current situation carefully, Fiala added.
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Chinese companies, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China Three Gorges Corporation and China International Water & Electric Corporation, have vast investments in petroleum, energy and construction in the country.
However, Fiala said Sudan’s status as an oil exporter had dwindled relative to alternatives such as Saudi Arabia, noting: “Most oilfields are now located in South Sudan with pipelines passing through Sudanese territory, but overall output is only a fraction of China’s global imports.”
Fiala also said close ties with deposed ruler al-Bashir might make it difficult for Beijing to position itself as a neutral arbiter in any peace process.
“China will likely wait until a clear power configuration emerges in Khartoum and will attempt to work with a new government to preserve stability where possible.”
Paul Nantulya, a China specialist at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies at Washington’s National Defence University, said even the United States had praised the constructive role Beijing played in international peace efforts in Darfur.
Two senior Chinese diplomats, then African Affairs special representative Zhong Jianhua and permanent UN envoy Wang Guangya, persuaded Bashir to accept the deployment of United Nations and African Union peacekeepers back in 2006.
They later facilitated a complicated process that led to face-to-face talks between warring factions in South Sudan in 2013, Nantulya said.
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Those processes had the full backing of the Chinese government and the two envoys were able to coordinate their efforts closely with Western diplomats.
However, according to Nantulya: “Right now the high levels of mistrust between China and the US, and more broadly the West, would not allow for that level of coordination.”
When it became clear that Bashir’s rule was over, China quickly established contacts with the two generals at the centre of the current fighting – al-Burhan and Dagalo – and also reached out to the civilian leaders in a transitional democratic government al-Burhan overthrew in a 2021 coup.
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“That clearly has not happened, whether in Ethiopia or Sudan,” Nantulya said.
Luke Patey, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said China has so far appeared to be staying on the diplomatic sidelines in Sudan.
“It joined the choir of countries calling for an end to hostilities, but there is no public indication that it is using its well-placed influence as Sudan’s largest trading partner to reconcile the warring sides as of yet,” Patey said.
With the ‘flow of oil’ at stake, what’s China’s next step in the Sudan crisis?
Chinese companies maintain a large presence in Sudan and South Sudan’s oil sector, he noted.
“If fighting targets Sudan’s oil infrastructure, which is still necessary to transfer South Sudan’s oil to international markets, then China may be forced to get more involved as its economic interests will come under threat.
“But these are not as significant as they once were and it may also spell the bitter end for China’s oil engagement if the conflict escalates.”
