Black voters feel targeted by Gov. Ron DeSantis — but turnout may not hit what Democrats need

HAVANA  — Standing outside a community center in Florida’s only majority Black county, May Andrews said that many of her friends and family members feel targeted by the policies of Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

DeSantis’ push for a redistricting plan almost certain to eliminate a Black-held congressional seat, along with making it harder to get mail-in ballots, has rattled many in her home of Gadsden County, Andrews said. 

Then there was the arrest in August of 20 felons — almost all of them Black — for wrongfully voting, after they were assured by elections officials that they could. 

“I thought, ‘That can’t be true,’” Andrews said. “I feel so sorry for those people who were feeling great about themselves, getting their lives back together. And then, they find themselves in custody again.” 

But even with these concerns, the retired probation supervisor said she’s not hearing that much talk about the upcoming election. 

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“It’s not a big topic,” said Andrews, shortly after listening to DeSantis’ opponent, Democrat Charlie Crist, speak to about 150 voters gathered inside the community center. 

“It just seems the economy, finding a good place to live, and dealing with the high price of food, schools and everything else is more what’s on people’s minds right now,” she added. 

Black people amount to 13% of Florida’s 14.5 million registered voters and form a key part of the Democratic electorate, voting overwhelmingly for the party’s candidates.  

Turnout may not hit needed level

But it’s becoming clear that Black voter turnout in Florida may not reach the high-level Crist and other Democratic candidates need to avert what is looking likely to prove an historic Republican sweep of statewide offices in the state, leaving Florida Democrats with less influence than at any point in the state’s modern history. 

“Black voters are just like all voters right now,” said Bertisha Combs, South Florida regional director for Florida Rising, a get-out-the-vote organization pushing to increase turnout. “A lot of people are tired of all the back and forth.” 

Combs, though, said she was staying optimistic. 

“People are aware of what’s at stake,” she said. “They know they have to turn up at the polls. They’ll show up. But we know Republicans are going to be putting up big numbers in other areas, too.” 

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Democratic slate cast to appeal

The Democratic lineup of candidates in Florida was seen as appealing to minority voters. Val Demings, a former Orange County sheriff, is a three-term Black member of Congress challenging U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and a former prosecutor, Aramis Ayala, also Black, is looking to unseat Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody. 

Even Crist, a former Republican governor who has served three terms as a congressional Democrat, drew relatively strong support from Black voters in past campaigns. 

But heading into the closing days of the campaign, all of the Democrats seeking statewide office are far behind their Republican opponents, polls show.  

Republicans are positioned to control the governor’s office, all three Cabinet posts, and both seats in the U.S. Senate for the first time in Florida history. 

An unexpected surge in Black support may be the only political Hail Mary left for the Democratic Party’s slate of candidates. 

A recent University of North Florida poll showed Crist is the favorite of 78% of Black voters, compared to 13% for DeSantis. Still, CNN exit polling from the 2018 election showed that DeSantis’ opponent that year, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who is Black, drew 86% of the Black vote, a mark Crist looks unlikely to reach. 

In addition, Gillum in 2018 helped drive a sizable turnout, with 61% of Black voters casting ballots that year — close to matching the 63% statewide turnout, overall. In Gadsden, he beat DeSantis, 68%-31%, with 68% turnout of its nearly 30,000 registered voters.

DeSantis won four years ago by 32,463 votes — or less than 1 percentage point. With the Republican governor eager for a resounding re-election win in advance of an expected presidential run in two years, DeSantis is looking to dramatically increase his victory margin on Election Day. 

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No help from national Democrats

Democratic activists acknowledge that the party nationally has done little to help in Florida. 

Voter mobilization, staff and the bulk of Democratic TV spending has gone to battleground contests elsewhere — not Florida — leaving state Democrats and allied labor unions underfinanced and in charge of most get-out-the-vote efforts. 

Demings gets 80% support among Black voters in the UNF poll. But earlier surveys showed that both Demings and Ayala, making their first statewide runs in Florida, still are not well-known to many voters. 

Crist making his seventh run as a statewide candidate, can’t expect to match the support Gillum had among Black voters, supporters said. 

“If the Crist campaign is banking on Gillum numbers for Black voters, that’s not a good strategy,” said Roxey Nelson, executive vice-president with the Service Employees International Union Local 1199, which is helping to mobilize voters. 

Some say a more realistic number for Crist to expect among Black voters can be traced to his earlier run for governor as a Democrat.  

In 2014, like this year, a presidential midterm election, Crist narrowly lost to then-Gov. Rick Scott. 

Black turnout that year was 45.6%, below the overall statewide voter turnout of 51%, according to analysis by Matthew Isbell, a Tallahassee data consultant. 

“Turnout may be lower than usual, but Black voters get it,” said Judith Browne Dianis, executive director of the Advancement Project, a national organization focusing on racial justice issues that is working to get younger minority voters to cast ballots this year. 

“They know that things that are on the line are things they care about,” she added. 

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DeSantis alarms Black Floridians

Dianis said that DeSantis’ advancing of cultural issues including bans on the discussion of critical race theory in schools and workplaces has alarmed many Black Floridians, worried it’s an effort to downplay or erase Black history. 

And the arrests of 20 felons for casting ballots despite being barred from voting because they were convicted of sex crimes or murder continues to resonate among Black voters. Most of those arrested had been told they could vote by state officials and were issued voter cards. 

DeSantis announced the arrests in Broward County, the county with the largest Black population in Florida. At least 15 of those arrested are Black. 

While the governor touted the action by his newly created Office of Election Crimes and Security, the first man charged with casting an ineligible vote recently had his case dismissed by a Miami judge who ruled the prosecutor lacked appropriate jurisdiction. 

The election crimes office was created earlier this year, part of a second installment of voting law changes spearheaded by DeSantis.  

In 2021, DeSantis signed into law a measure adding new requirements on mail-in ballots, drop boxes and registration efforts, which a federal judge ruled discriminated against Black voters, a conclusion later rejected by an appeals court that reinstated much of the law. It's still being appealed. 

DeSantis’ takeover of redistricting this year also resulted in the Republican-led Legislature agreeing to new electoral boundaries that positions the GOP to win 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts, a four-seat increase that could help his party gain control of the U.S. House in November. 

As part of the plan, a North Florida congressional district, held since 2016 by Black Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Gadsden County native, was dramatically changed. Lawson is running against U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn, a Panama City Republican, in a district that includes Gadsden County, but now leans decidedly Republican. 

DeSantis’ redistricting plan scattered 370,000 North Florida Black voters once in Lawson’s district across four districts all expected to elect Republicans. 

“These voter suppression tactics are by design,” said Moné Holder, director of advocacy and programs for Florida Rising. 

In Gadsden County, a rural, formerly tobacco-growing region where 56% of residents are Black, a feeling of inevitability seems to shadow this election season. 

“We’re under siege right now,” said Ronny Butler, 61, who retired as a utility worker in nearby Tallahassee. “But, you know, we’ve felt that way a long time. Ron DeSantis, he’s a bully. But I’m skeptical of all politicians this year.” 

John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on Twitter at @JKennedyReport