Welcome

If you’ve just signed up for the MWF 5AM Indivisible email written by Jerry LeClaire, you’ve arrived at the right place.

This website is a work in progress. It serves as an archive of my writing. I send an email between 4:45 and 5:15AM each MWF. Depend on it. If you’re signed up to receive it and it doesn’t appear in your inbox check your Spam folder and your Promotions folder. If you still cannot find it please let me know at jerry@jxindivisible.com.  I’ve learned that email is not the sure thing I once thought it was.

I hope you find what I write useful.

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

Spokane County Republican Party–Off the Rails

The new platform is another hard right turn off the rails and into the weeds

When a candidate for public office in the State of Washington declares on the ballot “Prefers Republican Party” they are signing up to support the legislative goals and values of the Republican Party. After all, for many voters party identity guides their voting choices. It, therefore, behooves voters to pay some attention to the Republican Party platform, the statement of goals and values of the party to which the candidate is signing on.

On Saturday, March 2, 2024, approximately 450 Spokane County Republican “precinct delegates,” i.e. the current party faithful, gathered at the Spokane Valley Assembly of God Church near the corner of Broadway and Sullivan (see P.S. for more detail). One task they undertook was to update the Spokane County Republican Party Platform, a platform that had not been adjusted since 2014. (As of this writing that 2014 Platform, not the updated one, is still the platform posted on the Spokane GOP website.)

Emry Dinman covered the March 2 SpokaneGOP Convention in his Spokesman article “Secession, fluoride and hand-counted ballots: Spokane County GOP adopts first changes to platform in decade.” Here are a few of the highlights [bold is mine]:

The [new] platform also calls for the removal of the United Nations Headquarters, currently located in New York City, from U.S. soil and strict limits on the power of the governor to act through executive order during emergency situations, a response to the authorities wielded by Gov. Jay Inslee during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is this a result of the ongoing conspiracy-laden blither about “The New World Order” that has emanated from many right wing church pulpits? 

On a more local level:

The county party now supports actions “up to and including secession from the State of Washington” in the event the state government “continues to infringe on our Constitutional rights or the Spokane County Republican Party Platform,” 

Apparently there was some controversy over this platform plank calling for secession. Even the man who has been pushing for his “Liberty State” for years, disgraced former State Representative, current Republican PCO, and current “On Fire Ministries” self-appointed pastor Matt Shea, voted against putting secession in the platform. As usual, however, he declined to discuss his reasoning with reporters. It seems unlikely that he has given up on his pet “51st State” proposal but would rather it not be displayed as a plank of the official platform.

The another Republican’s argument against declaring “secession” as a party plank was even more revealing [the bold is mine]:

Alene Lindstrand, who had served on the platform committee tasked with compiling the suggested changes, called for the secession provision to be removed. She argued that Spokane, the largest city east of the Cascades, had “fallen to the Marxists,” weakening the position of a possible 51st state.

The Convention went on [the bold is mine]:

The prior [2014] platform already called for identification in order to cast a vote and supported a “physical paper trail” for ballots. Now, however, the party also calls for removing all “internet-capable machines, computers and software” from the election system, an end to mail-in voting and a return to hand counting ballots, all while reporting final election results the night of the election, a proposal that current and former election officials from both major parties called unfeasible and unnecessary.

Clearly, these people have watched Trump’s darling, Dinesh D’Souza’s debunked documentary “2000 Mules” way too many times. Sane, pre-Trump, former Washington State Republican elected officials Sam Reed and Kim Wyman went on record against this plank in Mr. Dinman’s Spokesman article

And then there are the existing parts of the local Republican’s 2014 platformthat have taken on new importance now that the Trump/McConnell right wing U.S. Supreme Court, via the Dobbs decision, has stripped away a woman’s constitutionally guaranteed right to make medical decisions about her own body. In the 2014 platform’s third paragraph:

We recognize the right to life from natural conception to natural death as inalienable.

On the third page of the 2014 platform:

The Spokane County Republican Party believes that the State of Washington must act only in a fashion that protects all innocent human life in our state and we believe that the states must have the right to codify the sanctity of life from conception until natural death.

We see the practical results of “from conception until natural death” in Idaho (criminalizing the standard of women’s healthcare resulting an exodus of Ob/Gyn physicians) and in Alabama (giving embryos legal status resulting in the closure of in vitro fertilization clinics). Stand by to see Republicans trying to legislatively intrude on the private, end-of-life decisions of competent adults. So much for Republican claims to stand for “Freedom”. The “freedom” they endorse is freedom to impose their particular religious convictions on everyone else as a matter of law.

The Spokane County Republican Party has adopted an extremist platform. Voting for people who subscribe to this platform (“Prefers Republican”) is voting for a party that has gone off the rails. 

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

P.S. The process by which this new SpokaneGOP platform was adopted began with the Spokane County Republican Caucus on January 13 held at University High School in Spokane Valley. Theoretically, there were 451 tables, one for each voting precinct in Spokane County. Theoretically, each table would be guided by an elected Republican Precinct Committee Officer (PCO) presiding over a gathering of Republicans living in that precinct. Then those sitting at each precinct table would elect a delegate and an alternate to represent the precinct at the March 2 Spokane County Republican Party Convention. 

Since there are only 251 of the 451 precincts have an elected Republican Precinct Committee Officer (PCO) there are 200 precincts with no PCO to guide the process of electing the delegates in those precincts. We know from the reporting of Aaron Hedges of RANGEmedia that sitting around at least one precinct table was only the PCO of that precinct. It seems clear that many precinct delegates elected at the January 13th Caucus turned out to be the PCOs themselves. Whether anyone from a precinct that lacked a PCO came to be duly elected as a delegate from the Caucus to the March 2 Convention is unclear.

We know from Mr. Hedges that the Spokane GOP had planned on 1000 to 1500 delegates coming from the January 13 Caucus to the March 2 Convention. When only about 450 delegates advanced from the Caucus, the venue (and expense) for the Convention was shrunk down from the original, the County Fairgrounds, to the Spokane Valley Assembly of God Church (where the former chairman of the SpokaneGOP, Brian Noble, was at one time a pastor).

The purpose of the March 2 Republican County Convention (see Section 11.2.1 of the Bylaws, the party rules that govern all of this) was mainly twofold: to elect delegates to the Washington State Republican Convention (to be held April 18-20 in Spokane) and “for consideration of a Convention Platform and resolutions.” 

The delegates who advance to the State Republican Convention from all of the counties in the state will be winnowed down to 43 who will represent Washington State at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in June.

What Happened to the WA Republican Greed Initiatives?

The one that’s important to its major backer will be on the November ballot

In a sustained effort over two years, a single über-wealthy hedge fund manager, Brian Heywood, a Republican transplant from California, founded the PAC “Let’s Go Washington.” He funded the PAC with six million dollars (pocket change for him?). (See under “Support” here). Let’s Go Washington paid signature gatherers (hardly a “grassroots volunteer” effort) to obtain certification for six Initiatives to the Legislature—all of which were filed with the Washington State Secretary of State by Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh.

Jet-fueled with six million dollars to pay signature gatherers, all six Initiatives to the Legislature qualified by the January 2024 deadline. As “initiatives to the legislature” the Washington State legislature is first given a chance to pass them without amendment. The State House and Senate passed three of the six. You can explore them: Initiative 2081,  Initiative 2111, and Initiative 2113

However, Mr. Heywood’s personal main squeeze, Initiative 2109, his attempt to repeal the Washington State capital gains excise tax, will appear on the November ballot (along with two others, 2117 and 2124—topics for another day). Initiative 2109 is guaranteed to generate a blur of misinformation as Republican’s try to convince average voters that this tax threatens their personal finances—and to obscure the fact that the tax is earmarked to help fund the public schools. 

Mr. Heywood’s spoken hope is to rejuvenate the Washington State Republican Party, a project he likens to building a corporation—but it is hard to miss the personal financial benefit to Mr. Heywood that passage of Initiative 2109 would bring.

For tax year 2023 the WA State capital gains excise tax only kicks in on capital gains that exceed $262,000. Capital gains above that amount are taxed at 7%. Worried about paying capital gains on the sale of the ancestral family farm or the family home? Don’t be. The sale of buildings and land (“real estate”) is exempt from the tax. So are capital gains made in retirement savings accounts. Who on earth makes more than $262,000 in capital gains in a year? Mostly such capital gains are made on paper from sales of stocks or bonds—and, even then, the tax only applies to gains that exceed $262,000 in any one year. Imagine the sort of wealth necessary to make yourself subject to this tax. In fact in 2022 the capital gains excise tax was triggered on only 3,765 returns. That represents roughly 1/5 of 1% of the population of the state—surely none of these folks endured an hardship as a result. (The average return would have reported $3,370,000 in capital gains over the $250,000 threshold to have generated the collections of $889M.)

The proceeds of this tax are earmarked for the benefit of public schools. This tax is the price some very wealthy people pay for the privilege and considerable benefits of living in the State of Washington and having an educated workforce. If Initiative 2109 doesn’t pass, some people like Mr. Heywood may pull up stakes and move to Texas or Florida to avoid paying. We ought to bid them a hearty farewell and tell them to be careful not to let the door hit them on their backsides as they leave.

After a career of making money by moving money around, Mr. Heywood knows his numbers. Surely he has calculated the annual savings he would achieve if his Let’s Go Washington investment of $6M pays off with a repeal. Sparing him the 7% tax on $9,000,000 in total capital gains each year for ten years would amortize it. For most of us it is unimaginable for an individual to clock $9,000,000 in taxable capital gains each year for ten years—but so is the idea of an individual owning, maintaining, and operating a private jet or a multi-million dollar yacht—and yet that’s reality for a growing number of the über-wealthy. These are big numbers, but, since this repeal would be a gift that keeps on giving, spread out not paying a 7% tax on large chunks of capital gains over ten or twenty or thirty years and the ROI (Return On Investment) eventually pencils out. 

Understand what the Washington State Capital Gains Excise Tax actually taxes. Understand what it pays for and understand who would benefit from its repeal. Talk it up with anyone who will listen. Don’t be fooled.

Keep to the ground,
Jerry

P.S. For more information check out these prior posts:

The Republican Greed Initiatives and The Perversion of the Initiative Process

P.P.S. Local Republican writers conveniently downplay the outsized-role of Brian Heywood and his six million dollar investment when they discuss the six initiatives—and they never mention that all the signature gathering was accomplished with paid help, mercenaries, not grassroots volunteers. Eleanor Baumgartner of the right wing Washington Policy Center (and wife of U.S. Congressional hopeful and current Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner), takes the cake. She suggests in one of the apparently mandatory WPC Guest Opinions in the Spokesman that the “capital gains ‘excise’ tax” is one issue “most directly spiking costs for those trying to get by in harder times.” Really? There isn’t even a tenuous connection, much less a “direct” one. Pure Republican logic-twisting economic propaganda.

“20 Days in Mariupol”

And the Putin Republicans

For students of humanity (and the inhumanity of war) “20 Days in Mariupol,” last Sunday’s Documentary Film Oscar winner, is a must watch. (It is available to stream on YouTube here and on PBS/Frontline here [the latter may require a highly recommended subscription to your local public television station].) Strap yourself in. This is not a piece of fictionalized history. It is the raw reality for civilians and those trying desperately to hold things together on the ground in Mariupol in February-March 2022. The time was the beginning of the still-ongoing, Putin-driven, Russian war of conquest of Ukraine. It is totally heart-rending. This type of journalism is the reason that some want people kept in the dark about the realities of life in war.

Strikingly, Mariupol was a modern city, a complex built environment, a port city, that was home to nearly a half a million people, a city not unlike many an American city. Thanks to Vladimir Putin’s warped ambition for empire, all that was Mariupol now lies in ruins—along with the hopes and dreams of its former inhabitants. That men like Putin and Hitler can convince themselves of whatever they use to justify what you see in this documentary totally escapes me.

It is no wonder that the Russian propaganda machine went into high gear accusing this documentary and the TV footage that preceded it of “fake news” staged by “crisis actors.” That similar claims appear on the lips of Putin’s allies here in the U.S. should surprise no one. “20 Days in Mariupol” is a vivid reminder of the importance of a free press—and the need to pay attention to the source of what you are being fed by the media you consume. Putin cannot afford to have real life images of his war of conquest in Ukraine revealed to the Russian people, lest they see themselves in the misery of the Ukrainians. 

Meanwhile, back here in the U.S. it seems like the war in Ukraine almost dropped out of the news, overwhelmed by the Oscars themselves, the presidential primary process, and the coverage of war in Gaza. “20 Days in Mariupol” is a vivid reminder of the toll not only of Putin’s grinding, horrific, unjustified war of conquest in Ukraine, but also a reminder of one presidential candidate’s fawning admiration for Putin and Putin’s authoritarian grip on Russia. We should also be reminded of that candidate’s Republican minions in the U.S. House who have for months, voting as a block under the leadership of Mike Johnson, choked off funding for Ukraine, leaving Ukrainian soldiers short on ammunition. 

I used to lean Republican. In recent decades, as the Republican Party was taken over by the ‘Christian Right’ I considered myself an independent. Now, as the leader of the Republican Party looks up to men like Putin and works to purge all those from his party who voice the slightest disagreement, the Republican label is electoral poison to me at all levels of government. 

Watch “20 Days in Mariupol,” and contemplate the plight of humanity under deranged autocrats.

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

P.S. I am indebted to Petra Hoy for alerting me to the writing of Teri Kanefield. Her post “Why Some Prefer Oligarchy and (🎶 What’s Russia got to do, got to do with it? 🎶).” You can read it here. Kanefield does a terrific and well-referenced job of explaining how the Republican Party came to be an ally of Putin and Putin’s vision of Russia. 

P.P.S. Russia under Putin is something very different than the vision of the U.S.S.R. that I was raised on in school in the 1960s. The U.S.S.R. was posed as a nation of atheists in which Christian believers were relentlessly persecuted and abortion was supposedly the primary method of birth control. The U.S.S.R. was depicted as a totalitarian state like the state profiled in George Orwell’s “1984.” The U.S.S.R. carried the label of “communist” but it bore only a passing resemblance to the state that Karl Marx wrote about. (In spite of that disconnection, “communism” and “socialism” were still vilified and somehow intertwined with the U.S.S.R.) 

Weirdly, the Russia that has emerged today is still labelled in the minds of many as an evil “communist” or “socialist” state, when, in fact, Russia has become an oligarchic theocracy. Putin has revived Russian Orthodox Church as the pre-eminent spiritual authority. No atheists need be tolerated. Under Putin, church and state are once again fused as they were under the czar, abortion is illegal, homophobia is the standard, gay marriage is unthinkable, and media are controlled by the state. (Note how all this aligns with what the Christian Nationalists of the Republican Party are preaching.)

Republicans, Trump, and Gasoline

More potential Interference in our election from abroad

There is nothing quite like a sharp rise in the price of a gallon of gas to trigger the anger of the American consumer. After all, gas prices are prominently displayed on digital signs along every roadway. If you’re not buying gas that day you’re still aware of the price. With our transition toward electric vehicles and renewable sources of power only in the early stages, a rise in gas prices puts a dent in a lot of budgets. 

Any of my readers alive during the gas/oil crises of 1973 and 1979remembers the turmoil brought on by our dependence on importation of foreign crude oil. Back then we could blame the “lines at the pump” on the countries of the OPEC cartel that controlled much of the worldwide oil supply. It was an unaccustomed feeling of dependence and helplessness that spurred efforts to ramp up oil and gas drilling here at home (and helped efforts to improve the efficient use of energy and to decarbonize).

Forty years later, in 2020, the United States became a net petroleum exporter in 2020 for the first time since at least 1949. (This is mostly the result of recent technical advances, e.g. fracking and directional drilling.) 

Problem solved, right? We control our own energy destiny now. Not only are we “energy independent” but we’re chipping away at our overall dependence on fossil energy as we turn to clean energy production. (Our oil consumption peaked in 2005.) Screw those oil rich countries that held us hostage back in the 1970s! We’re free! Not so fast.

We as a nation became net total petroleum exporters in 2020, i.e. in very gross terms we produced more than we used. The key word, though, is net: a whole lot of total petroleum was shipped both into and out of the country. “In 2022, total petroleum exports were about 9.52 million barrels per day (b/d) and total petroleum imports were about 8.33 million b/d.” Those import/export numbers demonstrate a huge to and fro. The U.S. “only” consumes about 20 million barrels/day (for a reality check, that works out to 2.5 gallons of petroleum per day for every man, woman, and child in the U.S.). Almost half of that daily total is shipped into or out of the U.S. in a complex web of worldwide trade. There remain choke points in that web subject to manipulation by foreign actors wishing to influence elections. 

Below I have pasted Thom Hartmann’s March 6 Substack post. I sometimes find Mr. Hartmann’s writing a little shrill, but this post resonated with me, particularly as he recounts all the connections between the Trump family, the Saudis and the Russians. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. 

(I checked. The Port Arthur TX refinery is the largest single oil refinery in the North American. It is a major supplier of gasoline and other petroleum products to the southern and eastern U.S. And, yes, it is wholly owned since 2017 by Aramco, the Saudia state oil company controlled by the Saudi royal family.) 

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

The Saudi & Putin Scheme for Screwing Biden’s Election Hopes

So, get ready: it’s coming this fall. And unless the administration acts quickly, there will be nothing they can do about it. Gas at $6 a gallon could easily throw the election to Trump…

THOM HARTMANN

MAR 5

READ IN APP

Have you noticed gas prices are rising? Get ready: you ain’t seen nothing yet.

The bloodthirsty leader of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia loves his dictatorial soul-mate Donald Trump and is today setting the stage to intervene in November’s election in a big way, much like he did with a smaller test run during the fall of 2022 when he drove US gas prices up above $5, forcing President Biden to release oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve.

As Stanley Reed reported for the Business pages of The New York Times three days ago:

“Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Sunday that it would extend [their one-million-barrels-a-day] cuts in oil production through June, noting that it was acting ‘in coordination with some’ other states.”

That “other state” would be their OPEC+ partner Russia, which also announced last weekend a simultaneous production cut of 471,000 barrels a day. Putin wants Trump back in the White House, too.

This time, though, because Trump refused to block the sale of America’s largest gasoline refinery to Saudi Arabia in 2017 (completed in 2019 with Trump’s blessing), no matter how much oil Biden releases from the reserves will be irrelevant: if the Saudis shut down their Port Arthur, Texas refinery this October “for maintenance,” US gasoline prices will explode.

It’s the largest refinery in America: as Foreign Policy magazine noted in May 2017:

“Port Arthur, referred to as the ‘crown jewel’ of U.S. refinery infrastructure, can process 600,000 barrels of oil a day.”

That alone is enough to radically swing gasoline prices in the US.

So, get ready: it’s coming this fall. And unless the administration acts quickly, there will be nothing they can do about it. Gas at $6 a gallon could easily throw the election to Trump, as Biden will take the blame (just like in November 2022) and Fox “News” and rightwing hate media will hang gas prices around his neck like a flaming tire.  

MBS and his sovereign wealth fund have funneled literally billions of dollars into the Trump family, between Jared’s investment company and Trump’s golf courses and the LIV Tour, in addition to giving Trump himself additional hundreds of millions over the years renting and purchasing Trump properties.

During Trump’s presidency, MBS funneled additional millionsdirectly into the Trump family’s pockets via Trump’s DC hotel and NYC properties in clear violation of the Emoluments Clause of the US Constitution.

In exchange, Trump broke with the US tradition of new presidents visiting democratic allies and made Saudi Arabia his first overseas destination, blowing away congressional concern about MBS having ordered the brutal murder and dismemberment of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi and elevating the international status of that country beyond anything ever done by any US president.

Trump followed that up by organizing a 2019 sale of $8.1 billion in US weaponry in clear violation of US law (such sales require congressional approval). When the Senate voted to block the sale, Trump killed their effort. As Frontline noted in a July 2019 report:

“Both chambers have registered their disapproval of the emergency declaration — the Senate voted to block the sale in June. President Trump, however, has pledged to shoot down the measure when it arrives at his desk.”

When Saudi Arabia and Russia tried to screw Biden and the Democrats by cutting oil production — in October leading up to the midterm 2022 elections — President Biden was furious. Russell Baker wrote about it for The New York Times on October 11, 2022:

“President Biden vowed on Tuesday to impose ‘consequences’ on Saudi Arabia for teaming up with Russia to cut oil production, signaling a rupture in the relationship between two longtime allies and a reversal of his own effort to cultivate the energy-rich kingdom.

“Amid deep anger over last week’s decision by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus, Mr. Biden’s staff announced that he would re-evaluate the entire relationship with Saudi Arabia and expressed openness to retaliatory measures offered by congressional Democrats such as curbing arms sales or permitting legal action against the cartel.

“‘There’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,’ Mr. Biden told CNN’s Jake Tapper in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night.”

Weighing in for Democratic Senate leadership, Illinois Senator Dick Durban added on an October, 2022 CNN appearance:

“Let’s be very candid about this. It’s Putin and Saudi Arabia against the United States.”

The Saudis are well aware of the power of gas prices over US politics. Retired Saudi Oil Ministry Adviser Ibrahim Al-Muhanna wrote in his book Oil Leaders: An Insider’s Account of Four Decades of Saudi Arabia and OPEC’s Global Energy Policy:

“During the midterm election in 2018, President Trump pushed for lower oil prices—meaning gasoline—and he succeeded, but he used completely different methods. In the middle of June 2018, the oil price was about $75 and the gasoline price in the United States was more than $3.50 in some states. Trump was worried that the Republican Party might lose the majority in both houses of Congress. …

“The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided in June 2018 to increase their production by 1.2 MBD. Saudi Arabian production in November rose to more than 11.3 MBD, its highest ever.”

For reference, Saudi oil production right now is standing at around 9 million barrels a day, and they just announced a million-barrel-a-day production cut to kick in this summer/fall just in time for the presidential election.

So, what can President Biden do?

One step would be to nationalize the Port Arthur refinery, the “crown jewel” essential to US energy security that never should have been sold to a foreign nation. I’ve written extensively about the process of nationalization here and here, but it would require congressional approval and would probably take more time than Biden has before the November election.

Nonetheless, it would be a shot across the bow of Saudi Arabia and may get their attention sufficiently to stop their intended manipulation of US gas prices this fall. And it’s the right thing to do, even if it takes a year or more.

Another would be to take America back to the oil export policy that was put into place during the Nixon administration, prohibiting the export of any US crude petroleum products. US oil production is higher today than it’s ever been in history, and in 2019 America achieved technical energy independence, as noted by the US Energy Information Administration:

Source: Energy Information Administration

In 1973, at the height of the Arab Oil Embargo, President Nixon and Congress put into law legislation that banned the export of US crude. It stood until December, 2015, when Congress and President Obama, under pressure (bribes legalized by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court) from the fossil fuel industry, repealed the ban.

American oil companies are currently exporting a bit over 4 million barrelsa day, while we’re only importing around 900,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia and 290,000 barrels a day from Russia (yes, it sounds wacky). Ending exports would cut the tie between US oil prices and Saudi and Russian production. (Which only leaves that Port Arthur, Texas refinery owned by the Saudis as the weak link MBS could use to manipulate US elections via gas prices.)

While it would be challenged in court, there are emergency powers the president has that may allow him to reinstate that ban, at least temporarily, by executive order. Both The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times have argued in editorials that banning exports and lifting such a ban are both within the president’s powers.

Finally, President Biden could get ahead of the Saudis and Putin by exposing what they’re up to. They increased production (lowering US gas prices) in 2018 to help Trump and the Republicans in that year’s midterm elections, and cut production (raising US gas prices) in 2022 to hurt Biden and the Democrats in those midterms. Arguably, they got a Republican-controlled House of Representatives out of that effort.

Most Americans are probably unaware of this, and letting them know how our system is being manipulated by these two malevolent foreign powers would take some of the political sting out of the high gas prices that we can expect to see this fall.

And even if Biden chooses not to engage in this kind of public and high-stakes brinkmanship with MBS and Putin, you and I can. Tell everybody you know what’s happening and how we can expect it to play out: it may well begin to bleed through to the mainstream media if enough of us raise hell.

Pass it along!

Science and the PFAS Story

There’s always a lag in understanding the consequences

If you’re a bit mystified by all the talk about “PFAS,” fire-fighting foam, Fairchild Air Force Base, and Spokane International Airport you’re not alone. Why is it relevant to folks other than those with water wells on the West Plains? How does this story fit into the larger picture?

PFAS stands for Per- and polyFluoro Alkyl Substances, a class of chemicals invented in the 1940s that previously did not occur in nature. Heralded by the chemical industry for their impressive slipperiness and water-repellant qualities, PFAS in all their variations came into widespread use over the next half century for everything from making stain-resistant carpets (Scotchgard) and clothing (Gore-Tex) to effective suppressants for fuel fires at airports. Along with those useful qualities of PFAS come two other less recognized properties: PFAS tend to bio-accumulate, that is, animals and plants concentrate these chemicals in their tissues and, since the carbon-fluorine bond is one of the most durable bonds in chemistry, PFAS are incredibly persistent in the environment and in biologic systems. (Hence, PFAS is what’s meant when you hear about “Forever Chemicals.”)

To understand how the world became aware of the health and environmental concerns around PFAS, I strongly recommend you spend a couple of hours (and $4) streaming the movie Dark Waters (2019) on YouTube. (And/or read the reporting on which the movie is based: see next paragraph for a link.) Either way, understand that the PFAS chemicals they focus on in the “Dark Waters” story are the same predominant chemicals that are seeping through the ground water on the West Plains. Those main PFAS chemicals are PFOA and PFOS.  PFOA (aka “C8” for its eight carbon atom backbone) which was used for decades in the manufacture of Teflon and Gore-Tex. It was an essential ingredient in the Aqueous Film-Forming Foams (AFFFs) used in fire-fighting at airports like Fairchild and SIA. PFOS was also used in AFFFs and was once the primary ingredient in Scotchgard. 

“Dark Waters” is based on the excellent 2016 New York Times Magazine investigative article “The Lawyer Who Became DuPont’s Worst Nightmare.” Click the following link to read the story (It is a “gift article”, i.e. there should be no paywall.):

An important point from this whole story is that the funding (and the spur) for a key scientific study that clearly demonstrated the health risks of PFAS ingestion resulted only from this high profile lawsuit documented in the NYT article and the movie. Discovery and production of thousands (if not millions) of tons of PFAS—and the dissemination of PFAS based products—pre-dated the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970. PFAS production and use was therefore “grandfathered” in. 

PFOA and PFOS are now banned and/or phased out of production in much of the world, but we are left with the residual chemical contamination seeping into the groundwater from a multitude of sites, including many airports.

Judging by his actions, Spokane County Commissioner Al French that would rather that the extent of PFAS contamination on the West Plains remain under-investigated, swept under the rug, and the health risks faced by constituents drinking contaminated well water remain hidden from view. French’s associate, Larry Krauter, CEO of Spokane International Airport, would rather lobby to change the regulations than to acknowledge the risk and make efforts to mitigate it. There must be some deeply-seated belief among these people that those living on the West Plains are somehow expendable in the pursuit of industrial development and monetary value of the property around the airport. Officials that fail to put the health of their constituents first don’t deserve to remain in office.

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

P.S. For a glimpse of the science behind quantifying the health risks of PFOA (=C8) in humans check out this website: C8 Science Panel. Much of this research (perhaps all of it) came about as a result of the lawsuit detailed in “Dark Waters.” (Note that PFOA is only one of the PFAS. This is just the tip of the research iceberg investigating the adverse health associations of these “forever chemicals.”) The overall conclusion: “For six disease categories, the Science Panel concluded that there was a Probable Link to C8 exposure: diagnosed high cholesterol, ulcerative colitis, thyroid disease, testicular cancer, kidney cancer, and pregnancy-induced hypertension.”

P.P.S. THE LARGER PATTERN: The PFAS story is another example of a repeating pattern. A product, tobacco, for example, is packaged in a new way (cigarettes) or invented in a lab (PFAS). The product or chemical is found enjoyable or useful in some way. The product’s advantages are marketed to the public. (In the tobacco example the marketing included the infamous physician endorsements of smoking.) Thanks to marketing and peer pressure the product becomes embedded in our lives. (Smoking becomes ubiquitous; Teflon-lined pots and pans were found in most kitchens; Scotchgard becomes a household name.) The people and companies making the product happily make profits—and are generally and genuinely convinced that they are doing something good for consumers. Everybody’s happy. 

Then someone notices that people exposed to high doses of the product sometimes exhibit health problems that might be related to that exposure. (Lung cancer in heavy smokers, kidney cancer in DuPont chemical workers exposed to PFOS.) Researchers, spurred by such observations, expose animals in the laboratory to relatively high doses of the product and observe a higher incidence of a health effect in the exposed animals when compared to unexposed control groups (where the exposure or non-exposure is the only variable). Of course, unlike humans, the experimental animals are relatively genetically homogeneous and, since they have naturally shorter life spans than human, the effects of exposure appear on a shorter time scale.

Usually by this time the corporations making profits from producing and selling the product shift into high gear pumping out propaganda questioning the validity of the laboratory studies. (An unrealistically high dose was administered, lab rats aren’t humans, the results are only suggestive, grandma smoked all her life and lived to be a hundred, etc., etc.)

Testing in humans to gather evidence of health effects is where things get complicated—and expensive. It is unethical to intentionally expose one group of human subjects to a chemical, drug, or product suspected of having health effects while monitoring a carefully matched, unexposed control group and compare the difference in outcomes. Consequently, scientists, including epidemiologists and statisticians, work to understand the risk of exposure by comparing a group of people exposed to the chemical, drug, or product to an unexposed group. The quality of such studies in humans depends on a multitude of factors including the extent of the exposure (which varies, of course) and the matching of the two groups for age, gender, race, other exposures, etc. The best studies have large numbers of well matched participants in which the two groups are followed for a period of time and the outcomes compared (a “prospective study”). The conclusions of any study are enhanced by extensive “peer review” in which other scientists examine the details of the study for biases that might affect the result.

It is no wonder, then, that concluding that a low level exposure to a chemical, drug, or product has nasty health effects over the remainder of a human life always requires years, often decades, to come to light. The original glow of the discovery and popularization of the product starts to dim. This is a pattern we’ve seen many times. Examples include cigarette smokingDDTtrans-fatschlorofluorocarbonsthalidomideasbestos, and the burning of carbon-based fuels (see the History section at any of those links for details). Even after a risk is well understood and documented by a majority of the scientific community it still takes years before a clear message is received by the general populace. That is sometimes due to the ongoing efforts of folks with a vested interest in the chemical, drug, or product, folks who are suspicious of science, and people who simply do not wish to hear. 

And one final note: Of course there are examples in which one or a few studies claim to demonstrate a risk or benefit that is later thoroughly debunked, but the controversy lingers. A classic example of this is the debunked link between vaccines and autism (Robert F. Kennedy’s favorite topic). More recently, the supposed link between modest amounts of red wine consumption and health benefits was debunked—but I expect it will take decades for that message to penetrate. See “How Red Wine Lost Its Health Halo.” Here’s the link to what should be a free read: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/well/eat/red-wine-heart-health.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU0.bcG0.t3BkJ1GWLc11&smid=url-share

Building Codes, Energy Savings, and Global Heating

Al French concerned for the poor??

On February 21 an article appeared in the Washington Post titled, “How the housing industry is working to stop energy efficient homes.” This was the subtitle: “Home builders have used their political muscle to prevent states and cities from adopting the latest code, which would lower the climate impact of new houses.” The subtitle reminded me of local rhetoric.

Striving for energy efficiency has always made economic sense to me—even before most of us were aware of global heating resulting from the burning carbon fuels. Building a snug home (or retrofitting an older one) with insulation and efficient heating and cooling systems will cost something extra up front, but the investment will always pay for itself over a period of years thanks to lower energy bills—and after that the annual savings is a dividend.

Furthermore, it is usually cheaper to build an energy efficient home than it is to retrofit an old one. 

At the end of a recent county legislative meeting Spokane County Commissioner Al French (District 5-West Plains & South) offered up from the dais (to no one in particular) that changes in the state building codes requiring more energy efficiency would “hurt the poor.” French’s statement seemed broad and counterintuitive—a gratuitous soundbite.

Al French sits on the State Building Code Council where he has staunchly opposes updated energy efficiency standards. Predictably, in her periodic Spokesman opinion column Sue Lani Madsen has spilled a lot of electrons and ink decrying the extra costs entailed by the new code. (See hereherehere, and here.) Both she and French strictly avoid mentioning the energy savings that would result from the new code—and both of them cite between $25,000 and $50,000 additional cost for the average home to comply, quoting numbers from various builders associations. In addition, neither Madsen nor French consider that with code-mandated anti-fire upgrades the new homes are likely to draw lesser increases in home insurance premiums—as well as helping to keep home insurable at all.

Both French and Madsen try to focus the reader’s attention on the plight of those seeking to rebuild following the wildfires of last summer, while Mr. French, in particular, works to oppose the code changes overall 

The Washington Post article cited in the first paragraph concentrated on Republican efforts to freeze building code updates. It cited North Carolina as an example of the building industry’s nationwide efforts to oppose energy efficiency standards. This quote stood out for me:

A federal study found that North Carolina’s proposed code update would have added at most about $6,500 to the price of a newly built home, not $20,400. According to the analysis, these changes would have paid for themselves through lower power bills and, during the first year alone, reduced carbon dioxide emissions by the equivalent of taking 29,000 cars off the road.

Granted that eastern Washington is not North Carolina, but there’s that builder’s lobby quote of upwards of $20,000 again. It makes you wonder how that quote was generated and whom it is meant to serve. Once put out there and repeated all over the nation such numbers take on a life of their own. 

But, leaving the number aside, one wonders if the real issue for Madsen and French (and others) is this [the bold is mine]:

Tim Minton, executive vice president of the North Carolina Home Builders Association, also cited spiraling home prices in his group’s push to freeze residential energy standards. “I’m not going to get into a debate about climate change, what I’m going to get into a debate about is affordability,” he said in an interview.

To me that Tim Minton quote makes Al French’s sudden concern for “the poor” into perspective. If one denies the science of climate change based on burning carbon fuels, then, from a builder/developer’s viewpoint any additional cost expended to comply with code in building a home simply cuts into the profit to be made. The energy savings from the upgrades accrue to the homeowner, not the builder/developer. The builder/developer moves on to the next project even as the consequences in global heating from building energy inefficient homes lives on for decades.

Neither Sue Lani Madsen nor Commissioner French—or, for that matter, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, is likely to come out and say the quiet part out loud. That would be to declare global warming a “hoax” like the leader of their Party has done. Mr. French, like McMorris Rodgers, is far too politically savvy for that—but their arguments give them away.

Pick your candidates carefully this August and November. Deduce from their arguments where they stand on global heating and vote accordingly. We cannot afford to get this wrong any longer—nationally or locally.

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

Next Republican Target: Death with Dignity

The red flag of the word “natural”

“Freedom” for the Fundamentalist Christians and Christian Nationalists who dominate the modern Republican Party means “Freedom to impose my narrow religious view of the world on everyone else.” Freedom means the freedom to intrude on the most important and personal decisions in everyone’s life not just from cradle to the grave but from conception to the grave. As detailed in last Wednesday’s post, rulings based on “life begins at conception” not only make the method by which 2% of babies in the U.S. are currently conceived (in vitro fertilization [IVF]), expensive, untenable, and legally dangerous, but future rulings based on that religious dogma threaten several forms of birth control and the very position of women in society. 

If that weren’t enough to make a voter suspicious of anyone willing to run under the banner of “Republican,” now there is evidence these religious zealots want to dictate how we approach the other end of life as well. 

Judd Legum in his widely read Substack “Popular Information” posted on February 29th:

Former president Trump has endorsed Michael Whatley, a corporate lobbyist and chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, as the next chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

(For clarity, Lara Trump, Donald’s loyal daughter-in-law, is endorsed to be “co-chair”of the RNC along with Mr. Whatley.) Whatley is a lesser known, but devoted, election denier and, apparently, a religious zealot. Under Mr. Whatley’s leadership [the italics are mine]:

The most recent version of the North Carolina Republican Party Platform, approved in 2022, states that “[u]nborn children have constitutional rights to life and liberty and, the government must respect and protect all innocent human life from conception to natural death.”

“From conception to natural death.” Of course, no one should be surprised. These religious zealots have worked against Death With Dignity laws, laws that offer a personal choice in how one gets to exit this life, for decades. Based on the medically-chilling, wide-ranging effect of “life begins at conception” one must assume that “natural” in this application means something like, “however God’s wills it,” that is, with no medical assistance. 

I am a physician. I am well aware of the agony that one may face at the end of life in the process of dying. For me the prospect of death itself is not frightening, but the prospect of religious zealots telling me that I must exit this life only by their concept of “naturally” makes me profoundly angry. By what right do they propose that some of us must suffer indescribable pain at the end of life?

I am facing what, absent an alternative legal exit plan, could be a miserable, painful, struggling death with metastatic cancer. As recorded in the platform of his North Carolina Republican Party the prospective new co-chair of the National Republican Party wants to impose his narrow belief system on my and other’s most personal life choices. The Republican Party is driven by those who believe it to be well and proper that their particular narrow interpretation of Christianity should dominate the lives of everyone. Of course, anyone who carries the Republican label who challenges these ideas is not long for the party. Consequently, there is now no level of government for which I would be comfortable casting a ballot for a candidate with an “R” behind their name.

Keep to the high ground,

Jerry

P.S. “Medical Aid in Dying” (MAID), aka “assisted suicide,” is now legal (and regulated) in ten states and the District of Columbia. Getting to this patchwork in support of personal choice has not been easy. (See the wikipedia article for a detailed discussion.) Oregon was first, passing Measure 16, the Death with Dignity Act, with 51.3% of the vote in 1994. In 1997 Oregon voters 60% of Oregon voters cast votes to keep it available when a repeal initiative was floated. The Washington State “Death with Dignity” initiative was passed by 58% of state voters in 2008. The North Carolina Republican Party platform discussed above with its “protect all innocent human life from conception to natural death” clause strongly suggests a Republican drive toward preventing legalization of MAID in states where it is not now legal, repealing it where it is legal, and, if necessary, establishing a federal ban. If that seems doubtful, consider that, although the Dobbs decision expressed the idea that abortion was a matter for states to decide, 125 U.S. House Republicans went right ahead and signed on in support of a bill that would outlaw all abortion by federal law, “The Life at Conception Act.” Apparently, the argument for “states’ rights” is only a matter of convenience.