Hello, dear readers!
Please treat this issue of Hot Sheet as a momentary snapshot in time, when much remains unknown. While a judge has blocked Penguin Random House from buying Simon & Schuster, it’s unclear whether there will be an appeal. We also don’t know whether a new buyer will emerge and how attractive they might look.
Meanwhile, the biggest water cooler for the writing and publishing community—Twitter—is undergoing mass upheaval, and its future remains uncertain. Imagining a future without Twitter feels empty and sad for me personally, despite the platform’s drawbacks. Below I share links to some of my preferred commentary on the matter.
Finally: I have the latest trends in the romance market in terms of ebook sales on Amazon, as tracked by K-lytics.
Coming up soon: I’ll be doing my usual year-end review with comments about what to look for in 2023. Do you have reflections to share or predictions for the new year? Reply to this email and let me know.
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Hot Shots
Recently in the headlines
Amazon limits how many categories a book can rank in
While books can be assigned up to 10 categories, Amazon has now disallowed books from ranking in more than three categories. We first learned of this from author Pamela Kelley, who posted in an Authors Guild forum. An Amazon rep confirmed the change to her, writing, “Books can be ranked in up to three bestseller category lists regardless of how many categories the book may feature within; customer activity influences which three categories your book will be ranked in and appear on your Amazon detail page.” Kelley recommended using this tool to see all categories assigned to a book and the three categories it is currently ranking in.
For authors who want to work with Yonder
In our last issue, you might recall our write-up of Yonder, a new serialized literature app from the Wattpad–Webtoon family. While the app isn’t open to all authors—it’s a curated experience that largely requires an invite—we learned that Written Word Media (WWM) is another avenue for authors to publish with Yonder. WWM can assist authors in one of two ways: (1) helping create original and exclusive works for the platform (which includes an advance), and (2) repackaging backlist titles into serialized format. For the latter, the serial must be exclusive to Yonder, but such titles can continue to be published widely in other formats, including ebook. There is currently a waitlist of authors being vetted for fit. Learn more.
Ingram launches advertising platform
Ingram has launched Ingram iD, an ad platform for book publishers to reach consumers. Through Ingram, publishers can advertise on Amazon, Facebook, and Google, with more options to be added—including Ingram’s own consumer websites. Publishers can also pay to advertise to Ingram’s Verified Readers list, a database of several million names the company has been collecting. Learn more.
Book sales update
According to NPD BookScan, the holiday season this year is taking a less prosperous path than 2021 in the US book market. Overall print book sales were down in October for the second month in a row, a pattern not seen since 2019. That said, overall performance remains 5 percent lower year to date versus 2021. This is still 14 percent higher than the pre-pandemic market.
Colleen Hoover’s latest title, It Starts with Us, sold more than 800,000 copies in print on its first week on sale. If you remove the 1 million in unit sales contributed by this launch over the last two weeks, the year-on-year sales deficit this year would be 12 percent on a unit basis.
Year to date, Colleen Hoover has sold 10.1 million print units in retail outlets that BookScan tracks. NPD analyst Kristen McLean notes, “While that isn’t the most dominant annual run in NPD BookScan history—that honor belongs to E.L. James, who sold 14.4 million units in 2012—it certainly is in the top two or three.”
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IMHO: The DOJ vs PRH Decision Reflects Our Socio-Political Moment
A judge ruled that Penguin Random House cannot acquire Simon & Schuster, opening the door to similar government cases that can prove harm to workers rather than consumers
On the evening of Oct. 31, Judge Florence Pan handed down her decision on DOJ vs PRH: the government had proven its case that harm would come to authors of anticipated top-selling books if Penguin Random House were to acquire Simon & Schuster.
All along, I’ve said in this newsletter (and elsewhere) that I don’t think this case has much or any bearing on the average author’s earnings. While I can’t speak to the legal merits of the government’s case, I’ve never been convinced that blocking this merger would save anything of value that wasn’t already lost decades ago, when industry consolidation began. Nor is anyone arguing, as far as I’ve seen, that preserving the advances of authors who receive $250k+ will have positive trickle-down effects for the entire literary ecosystem.
Judge Pan writes in her ruling: “It is the Big Five who have the backlists and the marketing, publicity, and sales advantages necessary to consistently provide the high advances and unique services that top-selling authors need. It is precisely those specialized needs that make the authors of anticipated top-selling books vulnerable to targeting for price reductions.”
So, it’s a feel-good story for top-selling authors and their agents (around 1,200 authors, based on this case’s definition), and maybe it’s truly a win in the face of Big Bad Corporate Publishing. But the rest of us face the same constraints and problems of yesterday. What has really been gained aside from preserving the status quo for a while longer? I find this a sad celebration.
That said, the judge did call out a serious injustice that affects every type of author in Big Five book deals of all sizes. Pan writes, “Recent years have seen the industry-wide standardization of certain contract terms—involving payment structure, audio rights, and ebook royalties—in ways that favor publishers over authors, suggesting that the top publishers have engaged in coordinated conduct. Advances used to be paid to authors in two installments, but publishers uniformly moved to paying them in three installments and then four installments. ... After audiobooks became a significant source of revenue for the industry, publishers uniformly refused to acquire books without audio rights included, thereby limiting authors’ ability to maximize their compensation and preventing authors from diversifying their sources of income. In addition, during the early years of ebooks, publishers uniformly shifted ebook royalty rates from 50 percent to 25 percent, thereby reducing authors’ compensation. Thus, in an industry where the competition to acquire anticipated top sellers is intense, the competing publishers nevertheless choose, almost always, not to gain advantage by offering more favorable contract terms. This phenomenon bespeaks a tacit agreement among the publishers to compete only on the basis of advance levels because it collectively benefits them not to yield on other contract terms.”
Of course, none of that “standardization” is subject to change with this ruling; it shall continue no matter who acquires Simon & Schuster.
This case was brought by a US Department of Justice that wants to turn the page on how antitrust battles are fought. The focus is on worker welfare rather than consumer welfare. Longtime book critic Ann Kjellberg commented, “The ruling presented a rare victory for a justice department positioning itself to redefine antitrust cases. It is notable that the leader of this effort, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chair Lina Khan, cut her antitrust teeth on a historic paper identifying Amazon as behaving monopolistically, youthfully challenging a decades-dominant view of antitrust practice laid out by otherwise quiescent jurist Robert Bork: that consumer benefit (low cost) is the sole metric for measuring excessive influence over markets. … A dawning realization that such an apparently consumer-centric antitrust regime may deliver inexpensive goods but create very detrimental effects for workers, resources, and society as a whole has been percolating for a while in politics.” Her full piece is worth your time.
So, perhaps this case will open the door to action against Amazon. The New York Times article (gift link) announcing the judge’s decision concludes with this quote from Barry Lynn, the executive director of the Open Markets Institute, an antitrust think tank: “The target immediately moves over to Amazon. Once you’ve come in and said that this kind of consolidation and these kinds of actions are bad for authors and for readers, then you look over at Amazon and see a corporation that has 80 percent market share, there’s only one conclusion.”
Another industry giant often escapes scrutiny but wields tremendous power: book wholesaler and distributor Ingram. During the trial, some pointed to Ingram as a greater or equal threat in the publishing landscape. In his commentary after the ruling, industry analyst Mike Shatzkin wrote, “The biggest winner with today’s decision is Ingram. The list of titles distributed and managed under their auspices can continue to grow because Ingram doesn’t buy the companies or own the titles under their umbrella.”
Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster may appeal the decision. However, Paramount Global (parent company of Simon & Schuster) has to agree to give Bertelsmann (parent company of PRH) time to appeal and conclude the deal. Paramount may decide it’s better to seek another buyer, especially given that the judge’s ruling—quite scathing against the Big Five—could make an appeal feel like a time-wasting effort.
Plus, Simon & Schuster is on track to hit $1 billion in sales for the first time ever in 2022 and remains an attractive acquisition. A private equity buyer may be up next, but the judge explicitly left room for another Big Five house like HarperCollins, suggesting in her ruling that instead of a private equity deal, “It is just as likely that another publishing company will prevail in a future sale.”
Regardless of who prevails, I remain skeptical we will see a better outcome for S&S’s employees, authors, and partners—or the industry. Stephen King seems confident, though, that literary culture will be preserved as a result of the judge’s decision. He told The New York Times he was “delighted with the outcome,” adding that “publishing should be more focused on cultural growth and literary achievement and less on corporate balance sheets.” Last time I checked, Big Five publishers remain corporations operating in a capitalist society. Any new owner of Simon & Schuster will continue to scrutinize the balance sheets on a regular basis. (For more on what a new owner might do, I recommend publisher Kenneth Whyte’s article, This Solves Nothing.)
Bottom line: In his first comments after the judge’s ruling, PRH’s Markus Dohle said, “I think the ruling is utterly wrong” and made mention of a “political agenda.” One can indeed imagine this case turning out very differently if it had happened at another time, under another administration. I’m keeping a close eye on what other cases the DOJ might bring next. But I don’t expect publishers or author earnings to meaningfully change. As Shatzkin wrote, “The Big Five will continue to operate as shrinking but very profitable entities for a long time.”
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IMHO: I’m Staying on Twitter for the Foreseeable Future
Current alternatives can’t replace Twitter, but uncertainty and chaos seem likely to plague those who remain
Over Halloween weekend, I received a text from my 88-year-old mother asking if I plan to stay on “Musk’s Twitter.” I wasn’t planning to write about it, but that was just the first of many inquiries I received from friends and colleagues. So, here’s the full answer.
Despite the chaotic road ahead (and that’s a kind word for it), yes, I’m staying. While it may turn into a place I no longer wish to remain, for now, this month’s Twitter is not hugely different from last month’s Twitter, once you filter out heightened discussion of Twitter itself. It’s too early to say what will happen over the long term.
In the meantime, we have to deal with daily breaking news of Musk’s latest shenanigans. As one journalist said, “It’s like the world’s richest man wakes up every day, drops his trousers, and takes a dump right in the middle of the ‘world’s town square’ and everyone has to stand around offering their opinions on the dump he’s just taken.” My favorite commentary (as of this very moment, anyway) is by James Fallows, who says of people who have relied on Twitter, “I think most will try to hang on until the water backing up behind the dam becomes too deep.”
No doubt there will be terrible decisions and also reversals, ethical quagmires, and—dare I suggest it?—even positive changes. But to try to make sense of it, especially given how erratically Musk behaves, is a fool’s errand. Certainly months or years from now (I decline to guess how many), we’ll look back and see his brief or long ownership as a turning of the tide. But turning toward what, who knows. Even the very wise cannot see all ends.
My reason for staying is self-interested. I made my career on Twitter, unintentionally, when I became obsessed with it in 2009 and 2010. I began cataloging activity related to the writing and publishing community, curating a “best tweets for writers” column every week at my blog. That landed me on a recommendation list from Twitter itself as well as a mention in a Publishers Weekly article about the most influential book people on Twitter. Twitter was the first time I felt seen by the larger publishing community from my flyover spot in Cincinnati, and it made all the difference. It led to business partnerships, a panel invite from the National Endowment for the Arts, even a job offer.
And perhaps at the root of why I’m still on Twitter and don’t want to let go: It’s still about words. Atlantic contributor Alexis Madrigal recently tweeted, “The anxiety that word-people feel about the end of Twitter isn’t just about Twitter (tho it is that too!)—it’s also about our declining relevance on an internet that has turned largely visual with a side-helping of audio.”
A recent report warned that Twitter is losing its most active users. My own tweeting has declined over time, but I use it for research and industry reporting more than ever. There are times when I actively hate Twitter and wish I could abandon it, but I have yet to find its equivalent as far as a public forum. I’ve signed up for various alternatives, and I’ve poked around Mastodon. Some of them are liberal echo chambers, just as I assume Truth Social and Parler are conservative echo chambers.
Bottom line: I’ve dedicated almost 15 years of my life to cultivating a Twitter stream that’s highly attuned to what I need and want to see (although I will not be paying for a blue checkmark). I am willing to put up with “Musk’s Twitter” because it still delivers value, despite its problems. But I can easily see it decaying and disappearing. I recently read Ted Gioia’s article that argues the internet itself is on the decline. While I don’t entirely believe that, it’s interesting to consider whether these last 10 to 20 years will be a strange anomaly in our lives.
If you’re looking for writerly opinions on the state of Twitter, I recommend reading Jason Sanford’s round up of commentary, mostly drawn from the science fiction and fantasy community.
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Amazon Trend Report: Romance
To break into the rich romance market, look for a subgenre with high sales and lower competition
Romance is the biggest selling genre on Kindle and has always been incredibly competitive for both authors and publishers alike. The good news: according to the latest genre report by Alex Newton at K-lytics, the category has benefited from the pandemic. Seasonal lows for the category, usually in January, have become negligible since the first lockdown in spring 2020. As of this writing, there are more than 1 million ebooks available on Kindle, and the supply has grown 15 percent over the last 12 months. Given that volume, savvy authors typically focus on specific niche markets and tropes to have a chance at competing.
The leading subcategory sales in romance include contemporary, mystery & suspense, and romantic comedy. Contemporary romance in particular has strengthened its position as the highest-selling romance subcategory over time, and it has shown the highest 12-month sales rank improvement, driven by sales of Colleen Hoover, mafia romance, and billionaire romance.
The multiracial and interracial romance subcategory is showing increased sales. Newton says that some believe this is driven by Black woman, white man romance (BWWM) or urban romance, but he sees other types of romances being categorized in this way, including mafia and organized crime romance, with sci-fi and monster romance also contributing to growth.
On a current decline: paranormal romance involving werewolves and shifters. However, Newton says the cool-off in this submarket might be short term; over the last 10 years, one paranormal romance trope that’s continued to grow is shifters. Plus interest in shifters remains strong. Elsewhere: Amish romance is also on a negative trajectory, and there have been similar downward trends in the overall Christian romance market.
To break into the market, consider a submarket with an attractive sales-to-competition ratio. This means writing to market in a category in which there are fewer overall titles but strong sales. Right now, these submarkets include the later-in-life category (a new Kindle romance category with older protagonists), medical, gothic, action & adventure, sports, demons & devils, and new adult & college. Also, regarding that later-in-life category: This is where many women’s fiction books end up being categorized.
Romance books carry among the lowest prices of all main Kindle categories. The only categories that sell for less are humor and entertainment (our apologies to Hot Sheet cartoonist Bob Eckstein) and religion and spirituality. However, over time, prices for romance ebooks have inched upward. In 2017, the category hit a low point where average pricing was less than $2.50. Today, it’s $5.11. Newton advises authors, “Don’t undersell your work.”
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The average price of Top 100 Kindle titles in the romance category from 2015 to 2022
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Romantic erotica has been performing better over the last couple years, possibly because of TikTok. It is very difficult to market and promote in this submarket because of restrictions on advertising on Facebook and Amazon. But these challenges don’t (yet) exist on TikTok. Newton says, “All of a sudden people find ways of really getting traffic [via TikTok] to these steamier books … with a 44 percent sales improvement in romantic erotica alone.”
Bottom line: Ten or 15 years ago, vampire and paranormal romance were the hot subcategories, but these have given way over time to fantasy romance and dark romance. Romances have been getting darker, grittier, and steamier—and in some areas, more abusive, Newton says. To gain more in-depth insights into the romance category on Kindle, you can purchase the K-lytics October 2022 report.
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Correction
In the Oct. 26 issue, we noted that Kindle Unlimited pays out nearly half a billion dollars to authors and small publishers per month. It should have been per year. Our apologies for the error.
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Trailblazes
Opportunities, launches, and startups
New imprint from Tyndale
Tyndale Elevate will focus on apologetics: arguments and justifications for Christian beliefs. The first title will be How to Talk about Jesus without Looking Like an Idiot: A Panic-Free Guide to Having Natural Conversations about Your Faith by Andy Bannister, due out in August 2023. Learn more.
New imprint from Disney-Hyperion
Freedom Fire is a new middle-grade imprint that will feature stories written by Black creators about Black resilience and Black joy. The first titles will release in spring 2024. The imprint is headed up by Kwame Mbalia, bestselling author of the Tristan Strong trilogy. Learn more.
New book marketing and consulting company
Andrea DeWerd, who formerly worked as a marketing director at HarperCollins, is launching The Future of Agency, a book marketing and consulting company. Learn more.
HQN Books relaunched as Canary Street Press
Harlequin’s flagship romance imprint HQN is relaunching as Canary Street Press, named for Toronto’s Canary District. The new name reflects Harlequin’s “expansion to publish a greater variety of modern, commercial love stories,” in hardcover, trade paperback, and mass market formats. Learn more.
New literary agency: True Literary
After 12 years with Idea Architects, Lara Love Hardin is launching True Literary Agency. She will continue to work on nonfiction and expand into literary fiction; she will also represent short-form writing with the potential for TV or film adaptation. Submissions are open.
New agent at ASH Literary
ASH Literary is a children’s- and YA-focused agency established in 2020. Saffron Dodd joined the agency in 2022 and will become an associate agent in 2023; learn more. Submissions are open.
New podcast: If Books Could Kill
Hosted by Michael Hobbes and Peter Shamshiri, If Books Could Kill focuses on “airport bestsellers that captured our hearts and ruined our minds.” The first episode is all about Freakonomics.
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Links of Interest
Trends
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An analysis of the last five years of US traditional publishing sales. Publishing Perspectives breaks down five years of book market data collected by the Association of American Publishers. Read Porter Anderson.
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Bookstores vanish from Japan as population declines. The number of bookstores in Japan has declined by 30 percent since 2012. Read Chika Takada at The Japan Times.
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Read a summary of the PageBreak conference. An editor who works with self-publishing offers insightful takeaways about publishing tools, technology, and the future. Read Kristen Tate at The Blue Garret.
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Why musicians and other creatives will soon get their revenge on the old guard. You don’t have to give your work away for free, and alternative economic models have emerged. Read Ted Gioia at The Honest Broker.
Culture & Politics
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More on the Hobart problem: A poet in the literary publishing community comments on the practices of “rehoming,” “dogpiles,” and online smear campaigns as they pertain to literary journals. Read Johnny Longfellow at Lit Mag News Roundup.
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PEN America rejects call to cancel Amy Coney Barrett’s book. Their statement says in part, “It is the role of major publishers to make available a wide array of ideas and perspectives. … Editors should play a role in raising tough questions in preparing a book for publication to ensure that work serves the public interest in terms of thoroughness and veracity.” Read at PEN America.
- A closer look at Moms for Liberty, the right-wing group behind the book-banning movement in schools. The group claims that teachers are indoctrinating students with dangerous ideologies—but are they really concerned about protecting kids? Read Paige Williams at The New Yorker.
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Cartoon: Bob Eckstein
Copy editor: Nicole R. Klungle
Production coordinator: Mark F. Griffin
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