Republicans have the potential for a surprisingly big victory come this November’s midterm elections.
The public is dealing with a cost-of-living crisis (more than 20,000,000 are behind on their utility bills), rising energy costs, a record number of homicides, carjackings, and robberies, and the consequences of a wide-open border policy that has brought in a massive influx of both people and drugs. On virtually every front, people are finding themselves frustrated and frightened by a
Democratic Party
that is simply failing.
In turn, a powerful battle cry for the fall campaign would be, “It just isn’t working.” There’s proof of concept here. Facing many similar social and economic ills, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher ran her successful 1979 campaign on the same simple message: “Labour isn’t working.”
President Joe Biden’s
bizarre Philadelphia speech (with its ominous, red-colored setting and its shameless and totally inappropriate use of the Marine Corps) furthered the sense that the Democratic Party is both disastrous and dangerous. According to a Trafalgar Group
poll
, 57% believe the speech “represents a dangerous escalation in rhetoric and is designed to incite conflict amongst Americans.” Only 36% agreed with the statement that “it is acceptable campaign messaging that is to be expected in an election year.”
More than 50 years ago, Edward Tufte proposed that midterm elections ultimately become referenda on the party occupying the White House. This puts an enormous burden on the Democrats. In June, a Monmouth University poll
found
that 88% thought America was “on the wrong track.”
On Sept. 8, the University of Virginia Center for Politics
published
an analysis using two different election forecast models. Both approaches project a large Republican sweep in the House of 37 to 44 seats and a more modest Republican gain of three to five seats in the Senate. A separate analysis from UVA
projects
a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and a one-seat Republican gain in the Senate. A pickup of 42 seats would give Speaker Kevin McCarthy the largest GOP majority since 1928. The author points out that the Republican challenge in the Senate is greater because there are 21 Republicans and only 14 Democratic Senate seats up this year (which means the next two cycles will be harder in the Senate for Democrats).
The August strategy (cooked up by the propaganda media and Democratic consultants) that relied on using phony polls and personal attacks on Republican candidates has now failed. The momentum is shifting back to Republicans. So what, then, should Republican candidates do to maximize their victory this fall?
Here are some key steps.
First, ignore the media’s efforts to get you to focus on 2024 presidential politics and the unending effort to smear
President Donald Trump.
Your job is to stay focused on the issues that matter in the lives of everyday people. The cost-of-living crisis, especially the skyrocketing cost of food, comes first. The ripple effects of the cost-of-living crisis on electricity prices, gasoline prices, heating oil in the Northeast, diesel fuel, fertilizer, and other necessities should be a part of your campaign. When possible, campaign at gas stations and grocery stores. Explain big-government socialist spending as the major cause of inflation.
Second, crime may be the big sleeper issue this fall. Philadelphia is on pace to suffer from a record number of homicides in 2022. A staggering
70%
of Philadelphians consider crime and safety their biggest issue. Biden said nothing about it while speaking there. Republicans might note that Pennsylvania’s Democratic senatorial candidate, John Fetterman, has two people convicted of murder on his payroll and voted to release other criminals with murder convictions from prison, even though the other members of the Board of Pardons refused to put them back on the street. In Atlanta, which now has more murders and aggravated assaults per capita than Chicago, the Democratic district attorney is focused on investigating the last election rather than locking up criminals. The same story can be told in city after city.
Third, tie the flood of illegal immigrants across the open border with the flood of illegal drugs and overdose deaths now surpassing 100,000 people per year.
Fourth, insist on the right of parents to know what is being taught to their children and what is going on in the classrooms. As high a number as 84%
believe
parents have an absolute right to know what is being taught to their children.
Fifth, insist on a better funded-but-reformed Pentagon to enable America to stand up to communist China. Emphasize that we need a military focused on defeating America’s enemies, not on being a woke social service center.
Kevin McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” is going to be a wonderful contrast with the negative attacks and failed performance of Biden and the Democrats. Study it. Talk about it. Show America how a party with commitment and optimism can achieve what a party with hate and anger cannot.
That is the Republican formula for 2022.
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich is the host of the Newt’s World podcast and an author of the bestseller Defeating Big Government Socialism. More of his commentary can be found at
www.Gingrich360.com
.
