The Kremlin has a serious problem.
The late Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya once said “a little dragon has been raised by the Kremlin. Now they need to feed it. Otherwise it will spit fire.” She was talking about Ramzan Kadyrov, Vladimir Putin’s murderous Chechen satrap, but it seems the Kremlin has bred itself another fire-breathing serpent, one that is perhaps even more dangerous.
Now, it’s in the process of getting burned.
In news that has surely rattled the Kremlin, and electrified the political landscape in both Russia and war-torn Ukraine, Wagner’s mercurial chieftain, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has apparently offered to betray the lives of Russian soldiers, in exchange for allowing his fighters to claim Bakhmut. He made numerous offers to disclose Russian military positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and a bit of breathing room for his own fighters in that destroyed city.
The Ukrainians wisely refused the offer. They didn’t trust him.
These stunning revelations, reported by the Washington Post last night, emerged from the massive dump of classified documents released by 21-year-old Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira on the Discord gaming chat servers. It comes at a particularly tense and difficult moment on the battlefield, as Russian forces cede precious ground in Bakhmut, paid for with tens of thousands of soldiers’ lives, in the run-up to Ukraine’s long awaited counteroffensive.
Prigozhin played typically coy about it, issuing a sarcastic statement saying,“Yes of course I can confirm this information, we have nothing to hide from the foreign special services. Budanov and I are still in Africa,” referring to Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate. He was likely alluding to several in-person meetings reportedly held between himself and Budanov in an undisclosed African country. Later, he issued what was described as a “rambling” audio message for reporters.
Vladimir Putin may not feel so sanguine about this.
For the Kremlin, this likely amounts to incontrovertible evidence that Prigozhin has outgrown his leash, even as the private warlord openly nurtures his worsening blood feud with Russia’s Ministry of Defense, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. While it’s possible Russia’s military/intelligence apparatus, or factions within it, were aware of these conversations, that seems quite unlikely.
Rather, it seems that Prigozhin was simply attempting to sell the lives of Russian soldiers, hoping to put up a Wagner-branded victory in Bakhmut, damn the larger campaign. He’s operating more as a freelancer, at this point, than anything else. This is unsurprising, given that he’s literally a mercenary warlord.
However, in the past, “Putin’s chef” has always solved problems for the Kremlin. Now he is the problem, during a very hot war in which Russia needs all the combat power it can muster, mercenary or not. It’s one thing to belittle the Defense Minister over ammunition shortages; it’s another thing entirely to betray the lives of Russian soldiers.
There are presumably some lines you just don’t cross.
This certainly presents both PR and political dilemmas for Putin, as he tries to prosecute a dismal invasion with a hodgepodge of ill-trained conscripts and proxy mercenaries, or PMCs. Thus far, Russia’s lost an estimated 200,000 men in this war, and that number continues to climb inexorably higher. Putin can ill afford the loss of his mercenaries on the battlefield, particularly without another unpopular draft of fighting age men, a profound political risk.
In any case, the ongoing battle between Prigozhin and the Russian army is in sharp relief now. This betrayal smells like it could be the beginning of a Russian civil war; Wagner controls 40,000–50,000 fighters, and is clearly no longer under the Kremlin’s complete control.
This is the problem with mercenaries. Ultimately, it’s a question of loyalty.
Prigozhin intended to take Bakhmut by May 9th Victory Day, celebrated this year with a few rusted World War II-era tanks, and a quick and subdued speech on Red Square by Putin. This news merely adds to the growing list of headaches and fissures in the depleted Russian ranks, as Ukraine prepares to unleash what could be a game-changing offensive in the near future, fueled with advanced Western weapons, and a desire for victory.
Of course, the Kremlin will likely want to sweep all this unpleasantness under the rug, if at all possible. As Prigozhin himself noted in his discussions with Ukraine’s intelligence officers, morale is at an all time low in the Russian military, to say nothing of the Wagner units that have been decimated trying and failing to take Bakhmut.
Certainly, it’s an inauspicious beginning to the fighting season, a threat to the cohesion of Russian forces on the battlefield, and a perilous chapter for Vladimir Putin, as the war he unleashed forges battle-tested leaders no longer in his grasp.
It’s quite the conundrum. The convict turned hotdog seller turned catering magnate turned warlord has now become, of all things, a political threat.
At this point, it’s unclear what Putin is willing or able to do about it.
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