On Oct. 7, with Hamas terrorists still rampaging around southern Israel, I was interviewed on one of the American new channels that needed an analytical voice from Tel Aviv, where I live. The interviewer's confident assumption was that tanks were already rolling into Gaza. Almost three weeks later we're still waiting, and I'd be happy to wait a little more.
To be clear: Hamas is a criminal mafia with the wrong kind of ideals. Its raison d'etre, since the 1990s, was to dog the peace process with suicide bombings so as to turn Israel to the nationalist right and prevent a peaceful partition of Palestine. They are Islamic fundamentalists who have taken 2 million Gazans hostage, make their lives miserable with corruption and fanatical religion, use them as human shields, and when they are killed, rejoice because Israel looks bad.
American progressives who think Hamas fights for Palestine are infuriatingly clueless. A person who is gender non-binary would last about three seconds under the Hamas regime. Contrary to lazy journalistic boilerplate, the Gazans never voted in Hamas as their government. Hamas took over in 2007 by means of a violent coup against the Palestinian Authority. If the group were vaporized tomorrow, it would be a very good thing for all, the Palestinians most of all.
But there is a very big "however."
For Israel to topple Hamas by means of a ground invasion of Gaza would probably result in more casualties on the Israeli side than Oct. 7 itself. Hamas has had 16 years to prepare for this moment, and they can be trusted to have booby-trapped whatever is left standing after Israel's aerial campaign. The Israelis will face fierce resistance from suicidal and possibly drugged-up fanatics popping out of tunnels and sniping at them from rooftops.
Even if they succeed, as they probably will, the insurgency may last years, as the Americans discovered in Iraq. The hostages Hamas managed to drag into Gaza on Oct. 7, numbering more than 200, may well be executed, adding to Israel's rage.
The level of death and destruction this will entail will greatly increase the chances of contagion in the conflict—to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to another intifada in the West Bank, and possibly to deadly riots by some extremist Israeli Arabs inside the country. Israel's response to all this will become the story, eclipsing the horrors of the massacre, which will gradually be forgotten.
A new peace treaty with Saudi Arabia, which had been widely expected before the massacre, will be off the table. Existing peace agreements, with Egypt, Jordan, the UAE and others, will be severely strained and actually might collapse. Israel's economy, the envy of the region until Benjamin Netanyahu launched his effort to Putinize the country this year, will be severely hobbled.
All this is not punishment for Hamas and its backers in Iran, who almost certainly green-lighted the assault. They will have been expecting an Israeli ground offensive in response. They seek the mayhem that will result. They want Israel to be saddled with another ruinous occupation, criticized around the world for civilian casualties. They want Israel, the West Bank and Gaza to be a single entity, half the population of which would then be Arab. It is a gift for Hamas and Iran, wrapped with a bow.
Here's what would not be a prize for Hamas and Iran.
Israel and Saudi Arabia can fast-track a peace deal. The EU and United States should positively ban any support for or funding of Hamas, including from Qatar. Even indirect contact with Hamas should result in travel bans, freezing of accounts, criminal liability and the like. Sanctions should resume in full force against Iran.
Meanwhile, a monumental kitty should be pulled together from the nations of the world and the region—not in promises, not over many years, but a half trillion dollars on the table—for assisting Gaza the split-second Hamas hands it over to the Palestinian Authority.
Israel should continue assassinating the Hamas leaders one by one, wherever they may be. And the blockade of Gaza by Israel and Egypt should be tightened, with the exception of allowing Palestinians who wish to move to the West Bank safe passage and economic aid. Infighting and insurrection will soon follow.
Israel can try to negotiate for the hostages. Other countries can do so as well. And if the above fails, Gaza will still be there to be invaded. The tanks can roll in another time, perhaps with the element of surprise. Hamas will be weaker then, more divided, even less popular.
Haste is from the devil. As religious fanatics, Hamas will know the saying well. Israel should know it too.
Dan Perry is managing partner of the New York-based communications firm Thunder11. He is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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