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NOAA/SPC

A dangerous recipe for wildfire conditions will brew across the Plains on Monday and again midweek because of abnormally warm, dry and windy weather. The National Weather Service has placed a sprawling region from eastern Wyoming to eastern New Mexico, including the Texas Panhandle, under red flag warnings for a heightened fire threat.

It comes as the Smokehouse Creek Fire, the largest on record in Texas, is still smoldering in parts of the Panhandle. Xcel Energy, a utility in Texas, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/03/07/smokehouse-creek-texas-fire-cause-xcel/" target=_blank>acknowledged its power equipment probably ignited the blaze</a>, which was fanned by powerful winds. It has since burned 1,058,482 acres but was 87 percent contained as of Monday morning. The blaze killed two people and at least 3,600 cattle and its full toll is<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/05/texas-wildfire-impact-cattle-farmers-agriculture/" target=_blank> just beginning to come into focus</a>.

The nearby Windy Deuce fire, which was ignited between Dumas and Amarillo, is 92 percent contained, and has burned 144,045 acres.

Now the Panhandle is once again at risk for fast-moving blazes.

WeatherBell

Several ingredients have come together to intensify the fire threat that cuts across much of the Plains. Over the Texas Panhandle, after a mild February, a sudden cold snap has killed grassy fuels — leaving them ripe to burn. Farther north, a lack of precipitation and desiccated vegetation are increasing the fire risk.

“Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread,” the Weather Service wrote in a discussion Monday.

Meanwhile, the weather pattern is very conducive to fast-moving fires. Clockwise flow around a high pressure zone over the Southwest is pumping unseasonably mild air across the Plains. High temperatures are running 8 to 10 degrees above average in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and up 15 to 30 degrees above normal in the central Plains and eastern Wyoming. Some readings are 35 or more degrees above normal in eastern South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota.

That warm weather will help sap the ground and vegetation of moisture by speeding up evaporation.

Meanwhile, a zone of low pressure over the northern Plains will intensify the flow of winds from the south. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be common, with gusts up to 35 mph on Monday and strengthening to 45 mph Monday night. That could help to kindle and rapidly spread any fires that do materialize.

Winds circulating from west to east over the Rockies will also induce a phenomenon known as downsloping. That will cause the air to heat up and dry out even more as it passes over the mountains toward lower altitudes over the Plains. Relative humidity levels could drop to 10 percent in eastern New Mexico, southeast Colorado, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and far southwest Kansas. Elsewhere, relative humidity will dip to about 20 percent or below.

The dangerous wildfire conditions look to persist beyond Monday. Even though the risk will retreat to eastern New Mexico and west Texas on Tuesday, Wednesday could be an another threatening day as the risk expands again over the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

It appears that fire conditions will ease later this week as temperatures cool dramatically across the southern Plains and moisture increases.

Harvard University, B.A. Atmospheric Sciences

Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019, and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy.

Matthew Cappucci

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