Classified document reveals details of bringing Syria back to Arab League

Relations resumed

In late 2018, several Arab countries resumed diplomatic relations with Damascus. Some accepted the reality of the political situation and were seeking to counter Iranian and Turkish influence.

The moves also looked like a response to align with Moscow's intentions for the region. They also followed signals from Donald Trump, then the US president, who had ended a covert programme to arm the Syrian opposition.

Mr Trump had also agreed to a Jordanian-Russian-American deal to abandon support for the opposition in southern Syria, allow the return of government forces there.

After President Biden's administration took office, Syria and the Middle East lost their priority status on Washington's political agenda. That provided regional and Arab powers with a greater opportunity to take the political initiative in the Middle East, including over the Syrian conflict.

The Jordanian Paper on Syria

Jordan was at the forefront of the move into the gap left by the US.

King Abdullah II was among the first Arab leaders to address the burden of refugees and the related drug problem in his country, where abuse of the amphetamine Captagon is becoming increasingly prevalent. He also wanted to counter a growing role for Iran near his borders.

In 2021, the Jordanian government presented an official paper outlining its vision for a solution to the Syrian crisis. It was shared and discussed separately with both President Biden of the US and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

Some amendments were made to reflect changing developments, but the Jordanian Paper still largely reflects Jordan's thinking on Syria, as well as the approach of some other Arab countries.

The Paper says that after 12 years of conflict, there are no real prospects for resolving the Syrian crisis. There is currently no comprehensive strategy in place to achieve a clear political solution, and everyone agrees that there is no military end to the conflict.

It argues that changing the ruling Syrian regime is not an effective goal and that instead, a political solution should be sought based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

It concedes that there has been no meaningful progress made towards this goal and that the current situation only results in more suffering for the Syrian people and strengthens the opposition.

The Jordanian Paper notes that the current status quo only increases the suffering of the Syrian people and allows for the Islamic State.

The Paper notes that the current conditions in Syria enable "Iran to continue imposing its economic and military influence on the Syrian regime and several vital parts of Syria by taking advantage of the people's suffering to recruit militias."

It continues: "Iran's proxies are becoming stronger in the main areas, including the southern region, and the drug trade generates significant income for these groups while posing an increasing threat to the region and beyond."

Incentives

The Paper advocates a gradual approach to change the behaviour of the ruling regime, in exchange for carefully defined incentives. They would seek to benefit the Syrian people and open the way for voluntary return of refugees and the internally displaced population.

A political solution based on Resolution 2254 could be reached via a step-by-step approach, the Paper suggests, with support from like-minded regional and international partners. The Paper recommends agreeing such an approach with Russia and establishing a mechanism that would involve the Syrian government in the process.

The Paper calls for "…Direct participation of a group of Arab countries to bridge the cracks in the current Arab situation and address concerns about the absence of a collective Arab role in the efforts aimed at resolving the crisis. The participation of Arab countries is necessary to obtain incentives while framing them within the efforts aimed at bringing about positive changes."

Any "offers" made to Damascus will depend on "demands" made from it. The initial focus would be on be determined in exchange for "demands" from it, with the initial focus on humanitarian issues and ahead of political matters.

Timetable

The Paper presents a clear timeline of the steps required from Damascus and those offered by the Arab countries.

It calls on the Syrian government to "…allow humanitarian aid and agree on the flow of aid across the border in exchange for facilitating United Nations convoys inside Syria, providing a safe environment for the voluntary return of the displaced and refugees, and granting the UNHCR full access to the areas concerned, to ensure the safe return of the displaced to their homes and that they are not persecuted."

In return, the Arab countries would offer additional aid, financing "early recovery" projects, and the passage of aid through Damascus. Some of these steps have already been implemented, particularly after the earthquake that struck north-western Syria and south-eastern Turkey.

After the disaster struck, Damascus opened two additional crossings with Turkey, and Western countries provided exemptions from US and Western sanctions to finance those affected by the earthquake.

The Paper proposes a detailed program that addresses the political dimension of the crisis, including "positive participation" from Damascus in implementing Resolution 2254, supporting the work of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, releasing prisoners and detainees, uncovering the fate of missing persons, and holding elections "under the supervision of the United Nations, with the goal of forming an inclusive government."

After that, Arab and Western countries would offer a "gradual easing" of sanctions, followed by them being lifted, including measures against the central bank and government institutions. The program also includes the restoration of political and diplomatic relations and "facilitating Syria's return to international forums and restoring its position in the League of Arab States."

Cooperation to counter Islamic State

The Paper moves on to suggest details for cooperation against the extremist militant group Islamic State, including the exchange of security information, to bring about "the cessation of activities of extremist groups linked to Iran and its provocations against the Sunni sects and ethnic minorities in Syria."

The penultimate phase includes "…a declaration of a nationwide ceasefire, the withdrawal of all non-Syrian fighters from front lines and border areas with neighbouring countries, a cessation of all military operations including aerial bombardment and raids, and the cessation of all foreign military air operations over Syria, except for those within the framework of the ceasefire process. The commitment of partners on the ground in Syria and regional allies to the declared ceasefires across the country is also required."

This will require positive engagement with neighbouring countries and their commitment to regional stability and security, including fulfilling obligations under the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The measures here seek the reduction of Iranian influence in parts of Syria, the withdrawal of all foreign forces and foreign fighters from Syria prior to 2011, and the withdrawal of US and coalition forces from north-eastern Syria, including from the Al-Tanf base.

In tandem, the Paper says "coordination channels will be opened between the Syrian army and the military and security services in neighbouring countries to ensure the security of the borders with Syria."

Since the Jordanian Paper was written, numerous developments have taken place in Syria, the region, and internationally.

As a result, it has been updated. Some changes reflect the moves to normalise Saudi-Iranian relations reached with the help of China. Others involve the Ukrainian crisis and its impact on Syria and the Arab region. The recent turbulence in Sudan is covered, as is Moscow's launch of a path towards normalization between Damascus and Ankara with Russian-Iranian participation.

Amid these changes, there has been a notable shift in Saudi Arabia's role towards Syria.

Following several unannounced contacts, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Al-Mikdad visited Jeddah and reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia to resume consular work. Shortly thereafter, a meeting was held for the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council with Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq.

It led to the highest-ranking Saudi visit to Damascus since the start of the protests and the crisis in Syria in 2011 by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan who met with President Assad in April.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, they discussed "efforts to achieve a political solution to the Syrian crisis that would preserve Syria's unity, security, stability, Arab identity, and territorial integrity for the good of its people." 

They also spoke of the necessary steps for a comprehensive political settlement of the Syrian crisis that would end its repercussions, achieve national reconciliation, and contribute to the return of Syria to its Arab surroundings, and its resumption of its natural role in the Arab world.

Saudi Arabia emphasized the importance of creating an environment suitable for aid to reach all regions in Syria, enabling the return of Syrian refugees and displaced persons to their areas, and taking further measures to stabilize the situation throughout Syria.

In the Paper's final stage – for which no timeframe is specified – it is expected that all foreign forces will withdraw from Syria.

Roadmap of Amman

In parallel, work started on an Arab-Syrian "road map" for the next stages of relations.

It includes a series of joint steps to contribute to resolving the Syrian crisis, resuming relations, and Syria's return from isolation, seeking an Arab consensus on Damascus' return to the Arab League and alleviating Western objections to that.

Accordingly, another high-level meeting was held, in Amman, Jordan's capital, in early May. There, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria approved the roadmap.

It included a reference to Resolution 2254, the implementation mechanism and the countries participating in the follow-up committees. It considered the timetable, at between four months and six months for Damascus to make the changes outlined before it can return to the Arab League.

Striking wording from ministers

The Syrian side highlighted the special amnesty issued by President Assad last year and the government's opening up of two crossings for humanitarian aid between northern Syria and Turkey.

The Arab ministers, however, insisted on the need to explicitly mention Resolution 2254 and the formation of committees to combat terrorism and drug smuggling.

A strikingly worded statement was issued and the end of the ministers' meeting.

It summed up the interventions and mediations of many Arab countries with Damascus, including many points to which the Syrian government had objected.

Broad in scope and detailed, it called for:

"…talks aimed at reaching a solution to the crisis in Syria that is consistent with Security Council Resolution 2254 and addresses all the consequences of the humanitarian, political, and security crisis, a political solution that preserves Syria's unity, cohesion, and sovereignty, fulfills the aspirations of its people, rids it of terrorism, and contributes to strengthening the conditions for voluntary and safe return for refugees, leads to the exit of all illegal foreign forces from it, in a way that achieves national reconciliation, and restores Syria's security, stability, health, and role."

The ministers also agreed to "form a technical team, including Syria, Jordan and Iraq, to follow up on the implementation of the outcomes of the ministerial meeting, according to an agreed timetable, and in a way that integrates all international efforts".

While emphasizing that "the voluntary and safe return of refugees to their country is a top priority, and the necessary steps must be taken immediately to start implementing that."

In addition, "cooperation must start to advance efforts to exchange abductees and detainees and search for missing persons according to a studied approach", and "enhance cooperation between Syria and neighboring countries and countries affected by drug trafficking and smuggling across the Syrian borders with neighboring countries".

In order to "Agree on effective steps to address security challenges related to border security, by establishing effective coordination mechanisms between the Syrian military and security services and their counterparts in neighboring countries".

After the meeting, the Arab foreign ministers at the meeting contacted their counterparts in other Arab countries, informing them of its outcome, expanding the circle of supporters for Syria's return to the Arab League.

Their aim was to encourage Qatar, Kuwait and Morocco not to object.

US contact

A chance was taken to keep the US up to date.

The Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shokry, took advantage of contact with his American counterpart, Anthony Blinken, over the situation in Sudan to make Washington aware the outcome in Amman.  

Mr Blinken reacted by calling his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Al-Safadi, to say that Washington "will not normalise relations with the Assad regime and does not support others normalizing until there is authentic, UN-facilitated political progress in line with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254."

Mr Blinken emphasised the importance of coordinating with the UN Special Envoy for Syria, underscoring that Resolution 2254 is the "only viable solution to ending the war."

Arab countries perceive that the Biden administration is not actively working to impede normalisation efforts. But they believe that Washington wants to see a "price" for normalisation, whether it be related to bilateral issues such as drugs, refugees, or terrorism or collective issues related to political settlement and accountability.

It also seems that Washington requires coordination of the initiatives opening diplomatic overtures to Syria in order to withstand pressure from Congress to extend sanctions against Damascus.

To this end, some Arab countries have attempted to facilitate a Syrian-American dialogue in Oman in recent weeks, including talks on the fate of missing American journalist Austin Tice in Syria.