Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election

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In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, which can be held no later than 7 May 2026.

Constituency vote[edit]

Polling for the next Holyrood election - constituency vote
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Others Lead
9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat Sunday Times 1,086 35% 17% 30% 10% 5% 4% 5
6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 34% 21% 32% 6% 2%
6%
Reform UK on 3%
Alba on 2%
 2
25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,100 34% 15% 32% 9% 4% 5% 2
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 35% 18% 31% 5% 3%
7%
Reform UK on 4%
Alba on 3%
 4
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 35% 18% 33% 8% 3%
4%
Reform UK on 3%
Alba on 1%
 2
25–31 Jan 2024 Ipsos STV News 1,005 39% 14% 30% 7% 4%
5%
Reform UK on 1%
Alba on 1%
Independent candidates on 2%
Other on 1%
 9
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North 1,029 35% 16% 31% 8% 5% 5% 4
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,007 36% 16% 31% 7% 5% 5% 5
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,040 37% 18% 32% 8% 3% 2% 5
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos STV News 1,004 41% 15% 27% 8% 4% 5% 14
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,092 34% 22% 30% 8% 2% 4% 4
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 34% 14% 32% 9% 7% 4% 2
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,002 37% 18% 33% 6% 5% 4
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians 1,028 37% 20% 29% 9% 3% 3% 9
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,022 35% 16% 31% 7% 7% 4
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,094 35% 20% 29% 10% 3% 1% 6
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institute 1,004 42% 20% 26% 8% 5% 16
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times 1.103 41% 16% 28% 8% 3% 4% 13
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 39% 16% 30% 8% 3% 4% 9
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North 1,022 39% 16% 34% 8% 4% 5
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov 1,086 41% 14% 31% 7% 3% 4% 10
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 36% 19% 32% 8% 2% 2% 4
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,030 33% 21% 30% 10% 2% 3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation 1,891 38% 17% 33% 10% 3% 5
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,007 36% 13% 32% 9% 7% 4
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 40% 16% 33% 8% 7
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 27% 11% 21% 6% 5% 3% 6
3–6 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,395 36% 21% 29% 8% 2% 0% 7
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos STV News 1,090 42% 17% 28% 7% 4% 3% 14
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Survation True North 1,009 39% 19% 30% 9% 4% 9
30 Apr – 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,295 36% 18% 32% 8% 2% 3% 4
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times 1,032 38% 16% 30% 10% 2% 4% 8
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A 1,001 38% 16% 27% 7% 3% 11
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 38% 18% 28% 10% 3% 4% 10
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,009 39% 19% 32% 7% 3% 7
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,089 37% 17% 30% 8% 5% 4% 7
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected as the leader of the SNP and then as First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News 1,002 43% 15% 26% 8% 4% 3% 17
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,013 39% 14% 31% 8% 6% 2% 8
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 40% 20% 29% 7% 2% 3% 11
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times 1,017 42% 18% 28% 8% 2% 4% 14
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,034 43% 17% 29% 8% 3% 14
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1008 43% 17% 30% 8% 2% 13
15 Feb 2023 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party.
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study 1239 39% 17% 28% 8% 5% 3% 11
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1070 43% 17% 29% 7% 4% 14
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times 1,088 44% 17% 26% 7% 2% 3% 18
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North 1,002 46% 17% 27% 8% 2% 19
22–31 Dec 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,025 44% 16% 29% 8% 0% 3% 15
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman 1,048 44% 18% 28% 8% 3% 16
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times 1,090 50% 13% 25% 7% 2% 2% 25
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,045 50% 14% 24% 7% 3% 3% 26
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,239 34% 11% 17% 6% 4% 2% 17
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party 1,018 45% 15% 28% 6% 3% 3% 17
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times 1,067 49% 13% 26% 8% 4% 23
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 47% 17% 25% 8% 2% 22
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,011 45% 14% 30% 6% 4% 15
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,133 47% 17% 22% 9% 3% 2% 25
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,010 47% 17% 22% 9% 3% 2% 25
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 18% 25% 8% 4% 21
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times 1,115 47% 18% 23% 7% 2% 3% 24
5 May 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr – 3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,010 46% 18% 25% 7% 4% 21
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,009 42% 19% 24% 7% 4% 4% 18
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald 1,012 44% 21% 22% 8% 4% 22
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 46% 20% 25% 7% 2% 21
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,008 46% 20% 24% 7% 3% 22
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes The Economist 1,866 47% 21% 22% 8% 2% 25
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,014 44% 19% 22% 8% 3% 3% 22
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,004 47% 19% 22% 8% 4% 25
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,107 52% 19% 17% 5% 3% 4% 33
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times 1,060 48% 21% 19% 7% 2% 3% 27
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,781 47% 20% 19% 8% 4% 2% 27
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,005 48% 20% 22% 7% 3% 26
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 2,003 46% 22% 18% 7% 4% 3% 24
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,016 48% 22% 20% 7% 3% 26
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,014 51% 21% 18% 6% 4% 30
20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,287 46% 24% 19% 6% 3% 2% 22
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election[1] 47.7% 21.9% 21.6% 6.9% 1.3% 0.6% 25.8

Regional vote[edit]

Polling for the next Holyrood election - regional vote
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dems Alba Others Lead
9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat Sunday Times 1,086 28% 19% 25% 9% 10% 3%
5%
Reform UK on 4%
 3
6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 26% 17% 29% 9% 9% 3% 7% 3
25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A 1,100 29% 16% 29% 9% 8% 3%
7%
Reform UK on 5%
UKIP on 1%
 Tie
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 28% 16% 29% 9% 9% 3% 5% 1
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 27% 16% 29% 9% 9% 3% 6% 2
25-31 Jan 2024 Ipsos 1,005 33% 13% 31% 11% 7% 1% 6% 2
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North 1,029 31% 16% 29% 9% 8% 3% 3% 2
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,007 30% 19% 29% 9% 7% - 6% 1
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,040 25% 17% 30% 11% 10% 2% 1% 5
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,092 28% 21% 27% 9% 8% 3% 4% 1
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos Mori 1,004 35% 14% 29% 10% 8% 6% 6
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 30% 14% 30% 11% 8% 2% 5% Tie
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,002 28% 20% 29% 13% 8% 2% 1
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians 1,028 28% 19% 28% 11% 7% 3% Tie
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase Sunday Times 1,022 29% 18% 30% 12% 8% 3% 1
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,094 26% 19% 25% 12% 12% 3% 1% 1
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institution 1,004 35% 18% 25% 8% 8% 2% 3% 10
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times 1,103 33% 16% 25% 11% 8% 2% 2% 8
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,100 25% 15% 30% 14% 9% 4% 3% 5
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North 1,022 30% 15% 30% 9% 9% 2% Tie
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov 1,086 32% 14% 28% 11% 8% 2% 1% 4
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 29% 18% 30% 9% 9% 2% 3% 1
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,030 29% 19% 26% 8% 12% 2% 1% 3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation N/A 1,891 30% 18% 29% 10% 9% 1
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,007 30% 17% 28% 12% 8% 4% TBC 2
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 28% 18% 28% 13% 11% Tie
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 22% 12% 20% 6% 8% 2 1% 2
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,395 25% 18% 25% 13% 10% 3% 0% Tie
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos STV News 1,090 35% 17% 27% 12% 5% 2% 2% 8
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Survation True North 1,009 32% 19% 26% 10% 7% 3% 6
30 Apr – 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,295 25% 19% 27% 13% 10% 2% 4% 2
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times 1,032 30% 17% 26% 12% 9% 2% 3% 4
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A 1,001 32% 17% 23% 8% 7% – 4% 9
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 19% 24% 11% 13% – 4% 6
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,009 33% 18% 30% 10% 7% – 2% 3
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,089 31% 20% 27% 10% 6% 5% 2% 4
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected as the leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News 1,002 35% 16% 25% 11% 8% 2% 2% 10
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,013 32% 17% 27% 12% 8% – 3% 5
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 29% 20% 26% 10% 11% – 4% 3
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times 1,017 35% 18% 27% 9% 7% 2% 4% 8
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,034 35% 18% 27% 8% 8% – 3% 8
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1008 32% 16% 27% 14% 9% – 2% 5
15 Feb 2023 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party.
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study 1239 33% 17% 28% 11% 7% 1% 3% 5
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,007 33% 17% 25% 12% 7% – 4% 8
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times 1,088 36% 17% 26% 9% 6% 3% 4% 10
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North 1,002 33% 18% 25% 12% 8% – 3% 8
22–31 Dec 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,025 33% 15% 26% 12% 9% 2% 3% 7
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman 1,048 32% 18% 24% 13% 10% – 2% 8
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times 1,090 40% 13% 24% 11% 6% 3% 3% 16
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,045 43% 14% 21% 13% 6% – 3% 18
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,239 29% 11% 18% 6% 9% 1% 1% 11
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party 1,018 37% 17% 26% 9% 7% 4% 0% 11
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times 1,067 38% 14% 24% 12% 8% – 3% 14
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 32% 19% 26% 13% 8% 2% 1% 6
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,011 31% 14% 27% 14% 9% 1% 3% 4
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,010 41% 19% 22% 7% 8% – 3% 19
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 33% 20% 24% 13% 8% 2% 1% 9
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times 1,115 39% 18% 21% 10% 8% 2% 2% 18
5 May 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr – 3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,010 31% 18% 23% 14% 10% 3% 1% 8
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,009 36% 20% 22% 10% 7% – 5% 14
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald 1,012 33% 20% 22% 10% 8% 3% 4% 11
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 34% 19% 23% 11% 8% 2% 3% 11
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,008 34% 20% 22% 13% 8% 2% 1% 12
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes The Economist 1,866 34% 21% 20% 14% 8% 2% 1% 13
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,014 38% 21% 20% 9% 8% – 5% 17
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,004 38% 18% 20% 12% 9% 2% 1% 18
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,107 43% 20% 15% 12% 6% 1% 3% 23
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times 1,060 38% 19% 19% 11% 7% 1% 5% 19
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,781 41% 21% 18% 10% 8% – 2% 20
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,005 38% 22% 20% 11% 7% 1% 1% 16
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 2,003 38% 23% 18% 9% 8% – 4% 15
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,016 36% 23% 18% 13% 7% 2% 1% 13
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,014 40% 21% 16% 8% 5% 0% 10% 19
20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,287 38% 23% 17% 9% 6% – 6% 15
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election[1] – 40.3% 23.5% 17.9% 8.1% 5.1% 1.7% 3.4% 16.8

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "Full votes and seats by party etc - SPE21". Electoral Management Board for Scotland. 9 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2 August 2021. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
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