China ups food security drive, plans to grow 90 per cent of its grain by 2032, warning for US and Thai farmers
- China plans to grow nearly 90 per cent of the grain, including rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, it needs by 2032 amid efforts to ensure food security
- It also plans to reduce grain imports and increase rice exports, with food security high on the agenda for Beijing amid rising geopolitical tensions and the Ukraine war
China has significantly raised its grain self-sufficiency projections over the next decade by pledging to build a “diversified food supply system”, a move that has the potential to impact corn and soybean farmers in the United States and rice exporters in Thailand and Vietnam.
The flagship Agricultural Outlook Report for 2023-32 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs sets out China’s plan to grow 88.4 per cent of the grain – mainly referring to rice, wheat, corn and soybeans – it needs within a decade from the current level of 82 per cent.
It also plans to reduce grain imports to 122 million metric tonnes from last year’s 146.9 million metric tonnes, according to the report released by the agriculture ministry’s outlook committee on Monday.
“The foundation of grain security will be consolidated steadily,” it said, citing Beijing’s efforts to tap growth potential by increasing farming acreage and also promoting higher-yield seeds, farming machinery and technology.
“The agricultural trade structure will be changed significantly, with grain imports expected to fall 16 per cent over the next 10 years.”
Bulk purchase of agricultural products, mainly corn and soybeans, were often a tool used by Beijing to sweeten bilateral ties or leverage its demands during negotiations.
“China does not have too much trouble with grain self-sufficiency now, but its soybean production is a more obvious shortcoming,” said Weng Ming, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Domestic soybean production in China is set to grow at an annual rate of 7 per cent over the next 10 years to lift the self-sufficiency ratio from 18.5 to 30 per cent.
China’s soybean imports could fall to 83.6 million metric tonnes by 2032, while corn imports would fall below 7 million metric tonnes from last year’s 20.6 million metric tonnes, the report estimated.
Its soybean imports dropped by 5.6 per cent year on year to 91.1 million metric tonnes last year, with Brazil providing 59.7 per cent and the US 32.4 per cent, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
China’s purchase of US corn dropped by a quarter to 14.9 million metric tonnes last year, or 72 per cent of its total.
“Although we have seen many recent technological breakthroughs in China’s agricultural sector, the biggest hurdle remains their practical application on farmland, and Beijing’s policies need to be practically implemented in the countryside,” Weng added.
China still needs to defend its farmland as local governments tend to sell more land for property and industrial development, which is forcing policymakers to increase grain yields through technology applications, Weng added.
Authorities have already pledged to ensure China has a total arable land of no less than 120 million hectares (297 million acres) in its 14th five-year plan for 2021-25 and to ensure food self-sufficiency as geopolitics have disrupted food supply chains and raised prices, while tensions with the West potentially threaten food imports.
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The flagship agricultural outlook report for 2023-32 also outlined a plan to increase rice exports by 24 per cent in the next 10 years, which could affect the likes of Thailand and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, China also plans to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of oil crops – including soybeans, peanuts, rapeseed and sesame – from 32 per cent this year to 43.8 per cent by 2032.
The world’s largest fruit consumer also plans to further increase research on indigenous tropical fruit varieties by bringing more tropical Southeast Asian varieties into domestic production, while maintaining its persistent trade deficit, the report added.