Nova Kakhovka Dam Destruction Threatens One of Putin's Biggest Wins

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine could imperil the supply of fresh water to the Russian-occupied Crimea, a key component of Moscow's hold on the peninsula which was a priority for President Vladimir Putin in the opening days of the full-scale February 2022 invasion.

The dam spanned the Dnieper River which currently forms part of the front line between Ukrainian forces on its west bank and Russian on its east.

Nova Kakhovka, the linked Kakhovka reservoir, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) are all sensitive Russian-controlled sites along the river frontier, which has been touted as a potential location for Kyiv's planned spring-summer counteroffensive.

The Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed in the early hours of Tuesday morning following several months of maintenance issues. Kyiv blamed Russia, whose forces it has previously accused of mining the structure in preparation for its destruction. Moscow-installed occupation authorities had accused Ukrainian forces of multiple attacks on the dam, though did not initially say it had collapsed entirely. The Kremlin denied any involvement.

Its collapse poses problems for both sides. Hundreds of thousands of people have been ordered to evacuate as floodwaters surge through downstream areas. Military positions on both banks are being flooded as are vital supply routes.

Any potential Ukrainian attack across the Dnieper is now effectively "impossible," Andriy Zagorodnyuk—a former defense minister of Ukraine now acting as an adviser to the country's Defense Ministry—told Newsweek.

On the Russian side of the river, there is now a danger to the ZNPP, the cooling system of which is reliant on the Kakhovka Reservoir, the water level of which is now rapidly falling. A meltdown there could create a nuclear disaster spreading across Ukraine, Russia and much of Europe.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi has said there is "no immediate risk" to the safety of the plant, though stressed that a "prolonged absence of cooling water" available could pose a danger.

The emptying reservoir also means trouble for the North Crimean Canal, which runs 250 miles to the south and east to supply the Russian-occupied peninsula with fresh water.

Vladimir Leontyev, the Kremlin-installed head of the occupied Kherson region, has already raised the alarm over the canal. "The only threat [is] that we will have problems with the supply of water to Crimea," the official said, as quoted by Russia's RBC outlet.

The Crimean occupation authority said in a statement, though, that there is "no threat of the North Crimean Canal losing water," the state-run Tass news agency reported. However, occupation authority head Sergey Aksyonov said there is a risk that the canal's water level will fall, though the peninsula's reservoirs currently have sufficient water volume.

The canal has been a problem for Moscow since its "little green men" seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014, as the shockwaves of Ukraine's pro-Western Euromaidan revolution still reverberated around the country and the wider region.

Before that, the canal provided some 85 percent of Crimea's water, most of which was used for agriculture. The rest was used for industry and public consumption.

Invading Russian troops took control of the canal on the first day of the full-scale invasion last year, with the offensive cohort driving northwards from Crimea enjoying more success than their counterparts in the north and east of the country. Days later, Moscow's troops blew up the dam put in place after Crimea's annexation.

Anna Olenenko, an agriculture historian from the Khortytsia National Academy in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, told NPR last summer that the quick return of water to Crimea "shows us the importance of that issue."

Olenenko added: "Putin and the government promised to the Crimean people that they would solve the water problem in Crimea."

Blocking the canal and choking Crimea's water supply was "one of the few things they had available that they could actually do," James Rogers, the co-founder of the United Kingdom-based Council on Geostrategy think tank, told Newsweek of the post-uprising Ukrainian administration, whose armed forces had been proven unable to prevent the Kremlin's lightning annexation.

More than a year after the canal was reopened, though, the Kremlin has been unable to secure it.

"This is indicative of the fact that the Russians have not seized any further territory, that the conflict appears to have kind of ground to a halt," Rogers said.

Zagorodnyuk said the Kremlin's military concerns are now taking priority over Crimea. "I don't think they care about it now," he said. "All they think is about losing the war."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry via email for comment.