Here's an important discussion that people are missing in this polarized environment. Not only can we not remain in full lock-down forever because of its human costs, we should not. Good luck discussing that though. (Work by @mlipsitch/@yhgrad and others). https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/10/opinion/its-possible-flatten-curve-too-long/ …pic.twitter.com/eJ3qGpwQz2
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The unfortunate reality is that we are likely to open up in the worst possible way: relax restrictions too early because of political polarization and/or inability to provide proper financial relief to those affected and/or the unscientific policies of closing all parks etc.
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TO CLARIFY because it is always too easy to misunderstand. I'm *not* at all suggesting relaxing right now! It's too dangerous to brings people together especially indoors. The point is we need to bring this way down now *and* get ready for controlled reopening. Tough road ahead.
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Yes something like that. We locked down too late, we’re still not locking down properly. We didn’t start masks early enough. We are not testing enough. We’re not fully building tracing. Instead of a controlled opening, we may just have a deadly outburst.https://twitter.com/likeluke/status/1253680298862284802 …
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Also, *please* stop explaining trace-and-isolate, *obviously* that's part of the strategy and you're missing the point if you think epidemiologists don't know this. Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.
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Exactly. That's not what the epidemiologists are talking about! That was nuts—just bloodshed. One key Q is when/if people think we might get a vaccine (big unknown) and how much test/trace can work with a functioning economy (maybe a lot? important Q).https://twitter.com/RukhnamaLives/status/1253686060422488065 …
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This is another important point. We aren't ready to and SHOULD NOT relax anything yet in the US and hopefully we will have more clarity soon re:immunity/vaccine. But we will have to make these decisions and consider hard choices under real uncertainty.https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1253687214015463425 …
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Yes, that's the other end of this discussion as well as keeping R(eff) down via supplementary measures: modified indoors rules/masks/UVC in air ducts/vents etc. (which I think we should) *but* no single path is a proven success yet, including S. Korea.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253689940283719681 …
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We can: try to stamp it out completely and hope that we can implement a test-trace capacity re:South Korea that never gets overwhelmed and we get vaccine soon, three big assumptions. One hopes! But there has to be discussion what if assumptions don't hold.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …
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Effective herd immunity comes via vaccine or sufficient natural immunity and/or measures to lower R(eff) via supplementary strategies: different ways of more isolated living; masks/UVC in air vents etc. That's the discussion to have if we could.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …
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Anyway, for now: keep your distance, work from home if possible; wear masks around other people; avoid crowded indoors if at all optional. Given the way things are, it may all be wishful thinking to try to hope for sane long-term strategies. Right now, we isolate.
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Just in case that’s not clear. This isn’t what herd immunity means.https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1253726850632708096 …
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End of conversation
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