By Tom Bonier
August 3, 2022
There was much more at stake in yesterday’s primaries than in any typical primary for voters in Kansas. Instead of simply deciding on Republican and Democratic candidates to be on the ballot this November, Kansans were voting on a women’s right to abortion, the nation’s first vote on the issue since the Supreme Court handed down Dobbs.
Voters turned out in record numbers to deliver a resounding victory for pro-choice advocates in a red state where Trump bested Biden 56.2% to 41.6% in 2020 and Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 400,000 registered voters.
It’s clear that abortion rights were a massive motivator in the state, reaching well beyond the Democratic base. As of publication, over 900,000 votes have been counted. Turnout is on pace to nearly double the 500,000 votes that were cast in the 2018 primary which had a hotly contested Republican primary for governor that was decided by fewer than 200 votes. Indeed, turnout was closer to the record-breaking 2018 midterm when 1,054,622 votes were cast.
While the turnout in yesterday’s election was unprecedented, particularly amongst women, it’s important to understand that the groundwork was laid in the days after the Supreme Court’s decision was released.
Among Kansans who registered to vote on or after June 24th, the days after the Dobbs decision was announced, Democrats have had an 8 point advantage.
Percent of new female registrants in Kansas (7 day average)
Compare this with the GOP's overall advantage of 19 points among all registered voters in Kansas. The landscape changed on June 24th, and voters in Kansas, a conservative state in every sense of the word, unified around a woman’s right to choose.
Even more significant, and perhaps more concerning for Republicans heading into the midterms, is the fact that 70% of Kansans who registered to vote after the Dobbs decision was released were women.
It remains to be seen what will happen on November 8th, but if Kansas is a sign of a larger trend across the country, Democrats have to feel better about their chances. Kansans and most Americans overwhelmingly support a woman’s right to choose, and that fact has been made clear by an August primary in a historically conservative state.
At TargetSmart we’ll continue to look at voter registration trends, particularly in the time period after the Dobbs decision first leaked. Follow along at @TomBonier and @TargetSmart for the latest.