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Early analyses show global warmth surged far above previous records in September — even further than what scientists said seemed like astonishing increases in July and August.

The planet’s average temperature shattered the previous September record by more than half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), which is the largest monthly margin ever observed.

Temperatures around the world last month were at levels closer to normal for July according to separate data analyses by European and Japanese climate scientists.

September’s average temperature was nearly 1 degree Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above 1991-2020 levels — or about 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.1 to 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal from before industrialization and the widespread use of fossil fuels.

The September data shows an acceleration in the warming trend that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/31/july-hottest-month-extreme-weather-future/" target=_blank>rang alarm bells this summer</a> as the planet’s temperature reached <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/06/hottest-summer-record-extreme-heat/" target=_blank>its warmest level in modern records </a>and probably <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/08/earth-hottest-years-thousands-climate/" target=_blank>in thousands of years</a>.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather <a href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1709217151452954998" target=_blank>called the September warming</a> “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”

“We’ve never seen a record smashed by anything close to this margin,” Hausfather, climate lead for the payment company Stripe, said in an email.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, in a statement called the record margin “extraordinary.”

And she said it made recent projections that 2023 is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/15/warmest-year-earth-noaa-climate/" target=_blank>on track to surpass 2016 as the warmest year on record</a> even more likely.

Copernicus estimates annual average temperatures this year are expected to end up about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. That would be closer than the planet has ever come to a feared benchmark at which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/20/climate-change-ipcc-report-15/" target=_blank>sustained average temperatures surpass 1.5 degrees of warming</a> above preindustrial levels.

September’s temperature estimates come from models in which scientists use temperature data from around the world to calculate average global warmth. Such analyses have become a reliable complement to assessments that NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conduct each month, but with more lag time for data review and processing.

<a href="https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/" target=_blank>Temperature data derived from weather satellites</a> also showed it was the warmest September on record, by far.

Scientists say the extreme warmth is the latest sign of both human-caused climate change and of the climate pattern El Niño, which appeared in June and is approaching expected peak strength this winter. Climate forecasts suggest it will be a “strong” El Niño, and perhaps <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/26/super-el-nino-forecast-winter/" target=_blank>one of the strongest ever observed</a>.

El Niño is known to increase global temperatures by a few tenths of a degree Celsius, on top of global warming as a result of the greenhouse effect and the burning of fossil fuels. Warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean waters mark the presence of El Niño, as wind patterns over the tropics allow warmth stored in deeper levels of the ocean to come to the surface and be released into the atmosphere.

The planet is markedly hotter this year than it was when the last major El Niño hit in 2015 and 2016. It’s not just the Pacific that is anomalously warm — marine heat waves developed around the world this summer. And global air temperatures hit records the past two months in a row.

Scientists say the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/23/record-warm-temperature-september-climate-threshold/?itid=sf_weather_weather_Extreme%20weather_p003_f001&itid=lk_inline_manual_4" target=_blank>unprecedented surge in global temperatures</a> has increased the chances for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/09/08/climate-change-temperatures-population-summer/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4" target=_blank>brutal heat waves</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/19/libya-greece-flood-climate-change/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4" target=_blank>deadly floods</a> that have hit the planet in recent weeks and months.

Along with the extreme warming, Copernicus said the month brought record low Antarctic sea ice extent for September, about 9 percent below average.

Pulitzer Prize finalist for breaking news, 2016

First place for outstanding beat reporting, Society of Environmental Journalists, 2023

University of Maryland at College Park, BA in Journalism

University of Maryland at College Park, Master's of Public Policy

Scott Dance is a reporter for The Washington Post covering extreme weather news and the intersections between weather, climate, society and the environment. He joined The Post in 2022 after more than a decade at the Baltimore Sun.

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Earth breaks September heat record by unprecedented margin

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Brazil warns of a heatwave, Rio De Janeiro - 19 Sep 2023

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September 2023 temperature compared to other Septembers. 

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