🇺🇦 Pictured: Ukraine is negotiating with the US to receive long-range HIMARS ammunition that can reach 300km-500km
🇺🇦 The referenced picture is a terrible infographic that gives hardly any actionable information, but I’m hoping nobody cares because it LOOKS like it’s a good infographic, and looks awesome as a thumbnail for this post!
🇺🇦 Russian requests for artillery fire pass through a convoluted chain of command, resulting in a delay of several hours to several DAYS between Russian ground forces requesting artillery fire, Russian targeting, and conducting the actual strikes. This has been verified with multiple sources. Hey soldier friends…can you imagine calling in a strike and it takes DAYS to happen?
🇺🇦 UK is putting Ukrainian soldiers through a 3-week basic training. 20% are women. The program aims to train another 10,000 Ukrainians over the next 4 months. (MissouriBob, that update is for you!)
🇺🇦 Following the above announcement, Poland has announced readiness to train the Ukrainian military.
🇺🇦 Germany will completely stop buying Russian coal on Aug. 1 and Russian oil on Dec. 31, marking a major shift in the source of the country's energy supply
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers are increasingly more drunk and insubordinate. Alcohol abuse and desertion are rampant in Russian forces. This is according to Ukraine’s General Staff. This sourcing is believable because 1) it follows many reports of RU drunkenness and insubordination 2) UA propaganda MO is based on spreading favorable true news stories
🇺🇦 A pro-Russian separatist blogger likely got the Nova Kakhovka ammo depot blown up, by posting an 11 second video that allowed deduction of the location
🇺🇦 It appears the FSB is searching houses and basements for deserters…there’s an elevated number of people deserting due to the HIMARS attacks.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is negotiating with the US to receive long-range HIMARS ammunition that can reach 300km
🇺🇦 In resistance news, Ukraine partisans are increasing activities in occupied areas. As Russia seeks to consolidate control of occupied areas, British Intelligence is noting increased anti-Russian sentiment in these areas. The most recent high profile partisan attack involved a Ukrainian collaborator named Volodymyr Saldo—an administrator in a Russian-installed administration—getting poisoned.
🇺🇦 In Kherson, Russia can’t steal grain because they previously stole the combines
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted failed ground assaults north of Slovyansk and around Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 Thought Russia is largely in an operational pause, they continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and west of Donetsk City.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian rail lines on the Eastern Axis.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to attempt limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are using financial incentives for civilians working in occupied Ukraine….which is ironic because (in some places) Russian occupying forces are acting like migrants and doing odd jobs for Ukrainians for bare minimum wages
🇺🇦 According to Institute for the Study of War Russian occupation authorities may be setting conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainian children in occupied territories to Crimea. *rage intensifies*
🇺🇦 Sorry for the late post…I keep hoping that if I wait long enough I’ll hear news about another Russian general
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
Wednesday, July 13
Thanks! That 3-week basic training will greatly increase the survivability of the Ukrainian military.
I hope Ukraine gets the longer range HIMARS. Then say goodbye to the Kerch Bridge.