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The Ukrainian army is engaging in fierce battles and retreating on key front lines. An explanation with maps

Monday, 20 January 2025, 05:30

Statistics from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine show that since the beginning of January, on average around 150 combat clashes have been reported daily in the Russia-Ukraine war. The frequency of these clashes varies significantly across different sectors of the front, often indicating where the situation is most critical.

Towns such as Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk and Velyka Novosilka are being mentioned increasingly frequently in the news, accompanied by the warning "the situation is difficult". Many of these towns still have civilian populations.

After speaking with frontline soldiers, Ukrainska Pravda highlights the most challenging areas and the risks and threats arising from the ongoing events in these areas.

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1. The Pokrovsk front

Situation:Critical. The Ukrainian army is losing settlements daily on this front and has been unable to stabilise the front for a year since its withdrawal from Avdiivka.

Currently, Russian forces have decided not to assault Pokrovsk directly, but to bypass it from the south instead and cut off Ukrainian logistics. As of 19 January, the Russians are just 3 km from Pokrovsk and 5 km from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.  

The number of routes leading to Pokrovsk is steadily diminishing. Recently, Russian forces completely severed the Mezhova-Pokrovsk road, having destroyed numerous Ukrainian vehicles along it. In the past few days, they have also advanced north of this route, partially entering Kotlyne and Udachne – the last villages before the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk.

Serhii Filimonov, commander of the 108th Da Vinci Wolves Separate Mechanised Battalion, who has been fighting on the Pokrovsk front for an extended period, told Ukrainska Pravda in an interview: "There is a railway from Udachne and Kotlyne to Pokrovsk, and it’s in the nature of the enemy's operations to use all railways. They will almost certainly use this route to block access to Pokrovsk."

 

Threats:

  • the risk of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad being encircled;  
  • a rapid advance by the Russians towards the E50 Dnipro-Donetsk highway;  
  • the Russians’ increasing proximity to Dnipropetrovsk, raising the threat of the war spreading to a sixth oblast of Ukraine.
 

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • there is a lack of effective command at brigade level, within the Donetsk Joint Task Force and the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group of Forces. Resources, including equipment, weapons and personnel, are not being allocated efficiently;  
  • there is a shortage of infantry, primarily due to a high rate of desertion;
  • the infantry's level of training is inadequate.

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Situation specifics: Unfortunately, chaos has reigned for almost a year in the command of troops and units at various levels on the Pokrovsk front. The "old" brigades are becoming exhausted and are not receiving the reinforcements they need, while the "new" brigades, lacking experience, quickly lose personnel and equipment or suffer from a high rate of desertion, resulting in positions and defensive lines being lost.  

A recent case in point is the deployment of the 155th "Anna of Kyiv" Brigade of Ukraine's Armed Forces to the Pokrovsk front. This brigade was formed with funding from France and partially trained on French territory. Serhii Filimonov was tasked with assisting the 155th Brigade in securing positions during a meeting at the Donetsk Joint Task Force.

"I asked the unit representative: what went wrong? He replied, 'The bus didn’t have electronic warfare equipment.' I said, 'Are you planning to transport people to positions by bus?' He answered that he didn’t know or understand how it should be done," Filimonov told Ukrainska Pravda.  

"I also asked if the positions were being held and if there was communication with them. He said the positions were still standing, but there was no communication with some of them – either their radios were broken or they didn’t have any. There was one position that could only connect when it had internet access, but it wasn’t through Starlink, just mobile internet.  

The soldiers were completely unprepared for combat, which is what led them to desert their unit – to stay alive, I guess. And I don’t blame them."

2. Velyka Novosilka (Nova Pavlivka front)

Situation: the situation is approaching a critical point. Russian forces, with two columns of equipment, began an assault on Velyka Novosilka on 18 January. Unfortunately, several units managed to break through and enter the village. The timing of the attack was perfectly calculated, as it occurred during two hours of fog, snow and rain – conditions that rendered drones ineffective due to zero visibility.

Just a few days earlier, the Russians had also captured the village of Vremivka, which was a key part of the logistical route from the west to Velyka Novosilka – Zelene Pole to Vremivka.

Threats: 

  • there is a risk of Ukrainian forces being encircled in Velyka Novosilka. The distance between the Russian flanks which are trapping the Ukrainian forces is less than 3 km.

"The Russians are trapping us from three sides – Vremivka-Neskuchne, Zolota Nyva-Shakhtarske, and Novyi Komar. They will try to close the encirclement, though it will require significant forces to do so," one of the commanders on the Velyka Novosilka front explained in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.

 

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • a dire lack of infantry, particularly in the 110th Brigade, which is key to this front. The brigade has been given just 20 personnel since the assault on Velyka Novosilka began;
  • false reports from unit commanders to the operational and tactical group, often leading to breaches of the line of contact.

Situation specifics: Velyka Novosilka is a geographically and topographically challenging location for defence. It is a lowland area divided into three parts by the Mokri Yaly River. All crossings have been destroyed. The Russians bombard the town continuously with guided bombs and Solntsepyok and Grad multiple-launch rocket systems.

It has been impossible to access Velyka Novosilka by vehicle for several weeks. Logistics are extremely complicated.

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3. The Toretsk front 

Situation: difficult, Ukraine's defence forces control about 30% of Toretsk, intense urban battles are ongoing. The current task of the Ukrainian units is to detect and destroy Russian infantry infiltrating between buildings.

Threats: 

  • Firstly, the risk of losing complete control over Toretsk, which is on high ground and thus an ideal position for artillery and a crucial location for conducting radio and electronic reconnaissance.
    In this context, four spoil tips on the western outskirts of the city, each approximately 200 m high, are of particular importance. Capturing these spoil tips and the high ground would enable the Russians to target the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road, Kostiantynivka itself and other locations. Fortunately, these spoil tips are currently under Ukrainian control.
 
  • Secondly, Toretsk is a large city with pre-existing fortifications in buildings and basements. A retreat from Toretsk would force Ukrainian defenders to hold the line in open fields and forest strips, which is significantly more challenging.
  • Thirdly, and most critically, the capture of Toretsk would pave the way for a Russian advance on Kostiantynivka from the south. This would mark the beginning of battles for the large and strategically crucial agglomeration of Kramatorsk, which is densely populated with civilians (over 100,000 people still live there). The Russians are now about 15 km from Kostiantynivka and have been shelling it with artillery for several months.

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • lack of infantry;
  • low-quality ammunition.

Unfortunately, the problem of low-quality ammunition persists on the Toretsk front, particularly with 120mm mortar rounds, according to Mozok (Brain), a mortar battery commander in the 21st Special-Purpose Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade. His unit has been operating in the city since November 2024.

"The main challenges for artillery units are the quantity and quality of weaponry," Mozok says. "The quantity has definitely increased. The quality varies. There are different batches and manufacturers. Some produce defect-free ammunition and their rounds fly as they should – and those aren’t necessarily the imported ones. But there are others you return even before reaching the firing position. We’ve decided not to accept such rounds at the battalion level."

Situation specifics: To destroy buildings where Ukrainian soldiers are stationed, the Russians often physically carry TM-62 anti-tank mines in their arms and throw them into basements and the ground floors of buildings. This causes more damage than, say, artillery strikes. The Russians used a similar tactic in Kurakhove.

Carrying a TM-62 mine is extremely dangerous due to the risk of accidental detonation, so the Russians usually assign this task to former convicts, Mozok explains. Ukrainian soldiers refer to this Russian tactic as "kamikaze", the kamikaze being a person rather than a drone.

Interestingly, Mozok’s comrades – intelligence officers from the 21st Special Purpose Battalion – sometimes resort to a similar tactic but execute it differently. Under fire cover, soldiers approach a building in an armoured vehicle, throw anti-tank mines at the Russians, retreat, and detonate the mines remotely. If you want to see what this looks like, you can check it out here.

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4. Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk front)

Situation: difficult. Ukraine's defence forces control about 30% of Chasiv Yar, and a further 20% of the city is in the grey zone. Unfortunately, in mid-January Ukrainian troops had to withdraw from the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, which had been a large and reliable stronghold. Fighting is now underway in the artillery-ravaged residential areas.

 

Threats: 

  • the risk of losing the rest of Chasiv Yar, a significant area of high ground and a large city with reliable fortifications;
  • a retreat from Chasiv Yar would open up another route for the Russians to advance on Kostiantynivka from the east.

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • a severe shortage of infantry.

Situation specifics: One of the Russians’ hideouts on the front, between Chasiv Yar and Kalynivka, is the massive pipes of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. These pipes are over 2 m in diameter, allowing the Russians to move through them unnoticed at full height and to accumulate forces there for assaults.

The Russians used a similar tactic a year ago at the height of the battles for Avdiivka. They covertly broke into the rear of the Ukrainian forces in the southern part of the city through a main water pipeline that fed the Donetsk filtration station. This was, in fact, how they managed to enter Avdiivka.

 
The main water pipeline feeding the Donetsk filtration station

5. Kupiansk front

Situation: difficult. Russian troops are 2-3 km from Kupiansk. For a long time, Ukraine’s defence forces managed to restrain Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River. However, the Russian army has now established a foothold on the right bank of the river, north of Kupiansk, in the vicinity of Dvorichna-Zapadne-Masiutivka.

South of Kupiansk Vuzlovyi (a village adjacent to Kupiansk), the Russians have reached the Oskil River near Kruhliakivka-Zahryzove and are trying to expand their bridgehead near the river from the left bank.

 
The territories marked in red are occupied by Russia
Screenshot: DeepStateMAP

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • at the beginning of the year, the Russian Federation deployed additional reserves to the Kupiansk front;
  •  assaults using armoured vehicles have become more frequent.

In their assaults, the Russians generally use up to several dozen pieces of heavy equipment under cover from artillery and machine guns. They operate according to a standard protocol: first, they try to remove mine barriers, then the vehicles deliver the assault troops. After landing, the Russian infantry attempts to break through the Ukrainian combat formations and drive the Ukrainian soldiers from their positions.

"In early January there were a lot of videos of Russian vehicles burning en masse. One battle can go on for several days," a commander on the Kupiansk front told Ukrainska Pravda. "But even though they lose a lot of equipment and we manage to stop their advance, they don’t give up trying to enter Kupiansk from both the north and the south. When there is no equipment, they resort to assaults with small infantry groups."

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Situation specifics: The Oskil River makes it difficult for Russians to employ their usual tried-and-tested tactics and to bypass and pincer Kupiansk.

However, the Russians' success north of the city in the Dvorichna-Zapadne-Masiutivka area has allowed them to focus on trying to cut the logistics of Kupiansk and Kupiansk Vuzlovyi from both sides.

North of Kupiansk, the Russian army will likely try to move along the right bank of the Oskil River and along the road that connects the city with Dvorichna.

From the south, the Russians will seek to expand their presence along the left bank of the Oskil River to try to eliminate the Ukrainian forces' bridgehead in the vicinity of Kupiansk Vuzlovyi and the left-bank part of Kupiansk.

Threats: If the Russians keep up the pace of their advance from Dvorichna, they could eventually break through to the vicinity of Kindrashivka-Tyshchenkivka, northwest of Kupiansk. There is a road intersection to Kupiansk from Velykyi Burluk, which will further complicate the city's logistics for Ukrainian troops.

 
The territories marked in red are occupied by Russia
Screenshot: DeepStateMAP

6. Lyman front

Situation: difficult. In early January, Russian troops managed to break through to the western bank of the Zherebets River near the village of Ivanivka.

The tensest situation on the Lyman front is in the vicinity of Ivanivka – Terny – Yampolivka – Torsk. The Russian army is actively seeking to expand its presence in this area.

At present, the Russians are making more frequent attacks towards the village of Kolodiazi, which is located on the right bank of the Zherebets River, next to Ivanivka.

 
The territories marked in red are occupied by Russia
Screenshot: DeepStateMAP

Challenges faced by Ukraine’s defence forces on this front:

  • At the end of last year, the Russians mostly resorted to assaults by small infantry groups on the Lyman front. This is clearly due to the lack of armoured vehicles.

"Starting from the end of December, we began to see infantry fighting vehicles and tanks again after there hadn’t been any for almost a month," a soldier in a unit fighting near Terny told Ukrainska Pravda. "They seem to have been supplied with equipment, and at some point the Russians went back to using armoured vehicles again on our front. First there’ll be a tank, followed by an infantry fighting vehicle that’s trying to get closer to our positions in order to land infantry."

The soldier said the Russians are sending a rather mixed bag of infantry units into battle on the Lyman front – both experienced fighters and people who "don't really know what they’re meant to be doing".

However, the Russian army significantly outnumbers Ukraine’s defence forces on this front.

Situation specifics: as on the Kupiansk front, the Russians are hampered by water obstacles – in this case the Zherebets River.

Lyman is a very important area, as it is the gateway to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north-east.

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Threats:

  • If the Russians continue to move towards Lyman, this could create several problems for Ukraine’s defence forces.
    First and foremost, as mentioned, the potential Russian advance on Sloviansk from the northeast, coming from the Lyman-Raihorodok direction.
  • Secondly, if the Russians move south along the Zherebets River, this could threaten the rear of Ukrainian units fighting on the Siversk front. Ukrainian units holding the line in Siversk, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka may be at risk.
 
The territories marked in red are occupied by Russia
Screenshot: DeepStateMAP

Currently, the Russians do not have sufficient forces to reach Sloviansk. However, the risk of intensified attacks should not be discounted.

***

Of course, the war is not limited to the fronts described in this piece. Ukrainska Pravda will continue to follow developments. We are already working on an article which will outline the situation on the fronts not covered here.

Olha Kyrylenko, Yevhen Buderatskyi, UP

Translation: Sofia Kohut, Tetiana Buchkovska, Yelyzaveta Khodatska 

Editing: Teresa Pearce

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