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YOUPeterSaarJudge EricJudge WillScottDanielReplace all question marks in YOU column with numbers - the odds ratio under lab leak. If a piece of evidence is more likely under lab leak, enter a number greater than 1. If it's more likely under zoonosis, enter a number less than 1 (but still higher than 0)
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For example, if you think it's twice as likely that a lab leak pandemic would have an insert at the furin cleavage site, compared to a zoonotic pandemic, enter 2 for the "furin cleavage site" question.
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PriorsIf you think a piece of evidence doesn't matter (ie it's exactly as likely in a zoonotic and lab leak pandemic), enter 1.
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Years per natural pandemic?2020160662020----- A natural coronavirus pandemic happens once per how many years?
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Odds of Wuhan?0.030.0150.0250.010.0150.02----- Odds that a random natural coronavirus pandemic starts in Wuhan
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Natural pandemic in Wuhan#VALUE!0.00150.000750.000156250.00015151515150.000750.001(this gets auto-calculated)
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Lab leak at WIV?0.020.150.020.050.030.01----- Odds that, given that WIV is researching COVID, it leaks
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Lab leak starts a pandemic?0.330.410.50.40.5----- Odds that, given COVID leaked, it starts a pandemic instead of fizzling out
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Prior ratio for lab leak (derived from above)#VALUE!4.480128165165(this gets auto-calculated)
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Location in wet market
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First known cases in wet market?0.000250.50.00050.0010.0020.003----- The first officially confirmed cases were in the Huanan Seafood Market, and not somewhere else
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Highest case density near wildlife stalls?0.031110.50.066----- Surveys found the highest density of positive COVID samples near the wildlife stalls in the market
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No intermediate host?141141----- Nobody was able to find a potential intermediate host (like a raccoon-dog) that was positive for COVID
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No wild animal vendor sick?11111.52----- The first officially confirmed case wasn't in a wild animal vendor, and nobody was able to find a sick wild animal vendor.
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Two lineages
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All market cases B?1111316----- All confirmed wet market cases were Lineage B, not the seemingly-earlier Lineage A
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First A near market?0.021110.11----- ...but the first confirmed Lineage A cases were very close to the wet market
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Two basal polytomies?0.2511111----- COVID is divided into two polytomies, Lineage A and B, with the existence of intermediates disputed
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Genetic clock?0.111111----- The genetic clock appears to show that Lineage B has more mutations
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Viral genome
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New furin cleavage site through 12 base insertion
?52020255024----- COVID has a novel furin cleavage site made of a 12 nucleotide insert
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Frameshift PRRAR?0.00050.2510.0170.250.14----- COVID's furin cleavage site is an unusual frameshift-inserted PRRAR
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Binds to human ACE2?122111----- COVID is surprisingly good at binding to human ACE2
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CGGCGG?2511027----- COVID's furin cleavage site contains the unusual codons CGGCGG
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Reasons WIV couldn't/wouldn't create COVID
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DEFUSE not happening?0.40.40.060.50.660.25----- Adjustment for the fact that we don't know for sure that WIV was even doing DEFUSE-style gain of function research
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Needed backbone virus?0.0010.50.50.010.50.16----- Adjustment for no plausible backbone virus in WIV's publicly released databases
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Needed to find it interesting?0.11110.51----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to choose to do gain-of-function on a COVID progenitor virus instead of other seemingly-more-promising candidates
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Needed reverse genetics for it?0.0110.20.111----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to create a reverse genetics system for the COVID progenitor
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Live virus instead of pseudovirus?0.511111----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would have to choose to use live virus instead of pseudovirus
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FCS in S1?0.511111----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to choose to put the furin cleavage site in the S1 area
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Didn't publish anything?0.111111----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would have to do all of this without publicizing intermediate steps
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Have to succeed at creating/culturing COVID?0.110.5111----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to culture COVID without creating any uncharacteristic mutations
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Other factors
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No outbreaks in other cities?1111011.33----- The early stages of COVID seemed confined to Wuhan, without separate outbreaks in other cities
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Same month as SARS?0.2511111----- COVID started in the same month as SARS, which might mean the outbreak displays normal seasonal patterns
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Coverup would succeed?0.10.3330.110.51----- Adjustment for the fact that China would have to cover up lab leak successfully enough to produce only the evidence we see, and no more
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Final ratio#VALUE!0532.80.0007680.003506250.05940.03964004352(this gets auto-calculated)
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Inverse ratio#VALUE!4.84848E+200.0018768768771302.083333285.204991116.8350168425.22701569(this gets auto-calculated)
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