Oscars 2023: Best Documentary Feature Predictions
We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See IndieWire’s previous Oscars Predictions for this category and more here.
State of the Race
Because the much-enlarged documentary branch sees all fifteen shortlisted films when they pick their nominees for Best Documentary Feature, it wasn’t a surprise that a film that was not widely lauded on the awards circuit would sneak into the final five. Danish filmmaker Simon Lerent Wilmont’s Sundance World Cinema directing winner “A House Made of Splinters” was the surprise on Oscar nominations morning. Produced by Joshua Oppenheimer’s team behind “Flee,” the touching film goes inside a home for neglected children anxiously awaiting court custody decisions, and earned nominations from the Cinema Eye Honors, European Film Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards. A third of Academy voters are international.
The documentary race starts every January at the Sundance Film Festival, which launches a slew of Oscar contenders. While there are notable exceptions (Oscar winners “Citizenfour,” “Free Solo,” and “My Octopus Teacher”), most eventual documentary Oscar nominees launch at Sundance, including the aforementioned animated immigration saga “Flee” (Neon), and last year’s eventual winner Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson (Searchlight/Hulu’s 1969 concert film “Summer of Soul”).
2022’s new pandemic era Sundance crop was equally impressive. Four scored nominations.
Both the Sundance Documentary Audience prize and Festival Favorite awards went to riveting docu-thriller “Navalny” (CNN/HBO Max), Daniel Roher’s timely nail-biter about the charismatic Russian opposition leader who survived poisoning by Vladimir Putin’s thugs. After recovering in Germany, Alexei Navalny bravely returned to Russia amid fervent throngs of supporters — and was slapped in jail. The film landed both the Critics Choice Association Bronze award for Best Feature and Best Political Documentary, made the DOC NYC Short List, was nominated for the BAFTA, DGA, and PGA awards, and won Cinema Eye Honors for Outstanding Production and the Audience Choice Prize. “Navalny” could boast the most mainstream appeal across the entire Academy.
NatGeo grabbed Sara Dosa’s popular Sundance opening nighter “Fire of Love” (NatGeo/Neon, $1.7 million worldwide) with a lyrical narration by Miranda July, which tracks through the decades two French volcanologists in love not only with each other but with the thrill of chasing erupting volcanoes around the globe. The volcano-chasing crowdpleaser collected the Jonathan Oppenheim Editing Award for U.S. Documentary, and went on to score the Silver Award at the CCA Awards as well as Best Archival documentary; won Best Editing, Visual Design, and Score at the Cinema Eye Honors; won two IDA Awards for Best Cinematography and Writing; landed a slot on the DOC NYC Short List, plus BAFTA, DGA, and PGA noms. Among the Oscar contenders it’s the one popular box-office hit, and could pull the most votes from the wider Academy.
Winning the Sundance World Documentary jury prize was Shaunak Sen’s documentary “All That Breathes” (October 21, HBO Documentary Films), a lyrical portrait of two brothers who rescue the predatorial black kites circling in the polluted air above New Delhi, which took home the Cannes 2022 documentary jury prize, landed on the DOC NYC Short List, won Best Nonfiction Feature and Cinematography at Cinema Eye Honors, won four IDA awards including Best Feature and Director, and notched Indie Spirit, BAFTA, DGA, Camerimage, ASC, and PGA noms. This gorgeously mounted Indian eco-documentary will need to pull admirers from across the Academy.
Laura Poitras’ Venice Golden Lion winner and critics’ favorite “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (HBO/Neon), a riveting portrait of artist-activist Nan Goldin, landed DOC NYC’s Short List of 15, won Best Director at the Cinema Eye Honors, landed DGA, BAFTA, and Indie Spirit nominations, and won Best Documentary at both the NYFCC and LAFCA. Poitras has won the Oscar before (“Citizenfour”), so it’s a testament to her that the documentary branch included the film. But will this searing portrait of a heroic yet transgressive artist play as well to the wider Academy?
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.
Contenders:
“Navalny”
“Fire of Love”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“All That Breathes”
“A House Made of Splinters”
You may also like
