Back in 1992, Bill Clinton’s campaign guru, James Carville, enunciated a precept that he insisted should guide a savvy presidential campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Few have argued against Carville’s assertion in the years since. A strong economy does often help an incumbent running for reelection and a bad economy often boosts a challenger. But it is not as simple as Carville implied. For voters, “the economy” is a term that may mean something very different from the macro data that leads astute economists to declare an economy good or bad.
By measures such as job growth, stock prices and comparisons with other national economies, the current state of the U.S. economy is robust. If this is the result of Bidenomics, then President Joe Biden should be coasting easily to reelection, according to the Carville rule. That he is not suggests that plenty of people — maybe most — do not assess the economy through broad statistical measures.
For them, it is a matter of personal circumstances. Can I afford to buy a house? Can I put my kid through college? Am I forced to keep my creaky old car another year because the purchase price of a newer automobile is out of reach? Do I feel sticker shock at my favorite restaurant or at the grocery store checkout?
Beyond very individual concerns, perception of the economy is also greatly affected by political polarization. Even if Biden were overseeing the most vibrant economy in American history, hardcore fans of former President Donald Trump would never acknowledge it. They would remember Trump’s four years in the White House as a golden age when money was falling from the sky.
Yeah, maybe it’s the economy, stupid, but sometimes stupidity trumps any good economic news.
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