Sudan’s Warring Generals Ignore Truce

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: Foreign governments evacuate diplomatic personnel as Sudan fighting continues, Eritrean forces are still in Tigray, and South Africa tries to withdraw from the ICC.

More than a week of fighting in Sudan had killed more than 400 people as of Tuesday and injured thousands more, according to the United Nations.

A 72-hour truce meant to start at midnight on Monday was broken by both parties. Residents in the capital city of Khartoum reported heavy gunfire near the presidential palace despite the latest cease-fire attempt brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, health care support and humanitarian aid is becoming harder to access as people shelter at home amid gunfire and explosions.

Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, a former warlord who heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is battling Sudan’s de facto military leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, for control of the country.

The RSF and Sudanese army both have camps in densely populated urban areas, and there have been reports of bombed-out homes and damaged hospitals being used as military bases. Vandalization of homes and businesses is rising, and there are also reports of scammers who prey on civilians by promising to help navigate safe routes out of the city but instead take people’s money.

Many civilians are looking to escape via Sudan’s seven neighboring countries as conditions deteriorate, with internet and electricity outages plus a shortage of food, water, and gas.

“The situation doesn’t seem to be improving,” said Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael. “When both parties have barricaded all the bridges connecting Khartoum, and with very little essential supplies reaching Khartoum, you expect that lawlessness is going to happen, which it has. A number of incidents have been reported where armed forces in uniform have taken part in looting, and most of this looting is for food and water.”

Up to 20,000 Sudanese living in border areas such as the western region of Darfur have fled into neighboring Chad. Egypt, which has a significant Sudanese population, is seeing refugees crossing the border in trucks.

The governments of Ghana, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, China, and various European Union nations say they are working to evacuate all their citizens from Sudan. The United States, Britain, France, and Canada over the weekend evacuated diplomats and their families. But it was currently unsafe to evacuate private U.S. citizens, the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum—which is now temporarily closed—said on Saturday.

Each warring side has stepped up its PR campaign. On social media, the RSF, which in the past has appointed Western lobbyists to brand-wash its image, has been adopting the language of international law and human rights, mentioning legal “violations” and a need for “stability.” In a statement, the RSF said it coordinated the evacuation of U.S. diplomats. The Sudanese Armed Forces also claimed responsibility for the evacuation.

“That was not the case. They cooperated to the extent that they did not fire on our service members in the course of the operation. I would submit that’s as much in their self-interest as anything else,” said John Bass, the U.S. undersecretary of state for management.

Burhan claims he is acting in Sudan’s democratic interests. “I informed Hemeti that if we are the cause of Sudan’s problems, we should step down together, but he refused, telling me you could leave alone but I would stay,” Burhan said on Al Jazeera TV.

With an exodus of Western mediators including John T. Godfrey, the U.S. ambassador to Sudan (who only arrived in the country about eight months ago), analysts warn that more influential regional actors such as Egypt, Russia, and Gulf nations—which have meddled in Sudan before—could prolong the war by officially picking a side in this latest conflict.

The United Arab Emirates and Russia benefit from financial ties to Hemeti’s businesses in gold mining, banking, and agriculture. The UAE has sold weapons to both sides in the past. CNN reports that Russian Wagner Group mercenaries trained RSF troops and could be supplying them with weapons.

The RSF has denied ties with Wagner in a tweet on Saturday, instead accusing the Sudanese army of links to the group. Wagner’s founder, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, offered to mediate in the crisis and said Wagner had not been present in Sudan for two years, adding that the group has had no contact with either military leader “for a long time.”

“What is happening now in Sudan is not what we trained the Sudanese to hold arms for. We trained them to defend their borders,” he said in a statement on Telegram.

Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan strongman accused of war crimes during Libya’s 2014-20 civil war, could be aiding and training Hemeti’s troops, according to the Observer. In the shadows, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi may have been sabotaging Sudan’s democratic transition because Sudan’s military favors Cairo’s interests.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed has had to deny reports that Ethiopian forces had attacked the disputed al-Fashqa border areas, which Sudan is accused of having reclaimed during Ethiopia’s civil war. (According to a Sudanese source, it is possible that regional militias, rather than Ethiopian army forces, have been active in the area.)

Kenya’s government, which has grown closer to the United States since President William Ruto took office, directly accused Russia and Gulf nations of political meddling in Sudan.

“We see from where we sit a lot of international interference, a lot of other players trying to use Sudan as a playing field for whatever reason, for the gold in Sudan, for territorial strength and control of the region,” said Alfred Mutua, Kenya’s cabinet secretary for foreign affairs, on Monday during a joint press briefing with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“We’ve been quite concerned by some of our friends in the Middle East,” Mutua said. But Sudanese analysts also blame the escalation of violence on U.S. and U.N. mediators in attempting to rush a problematic framework agreement.

There is pressure from political observers for regional players to form a united anti-war stance, backing neither side and taking part in one dialogue to end hostilities. “Otherwise, a lot of different actors engaging the warring parties with diverse interests may not lead to a successful mediation process,” said Crisis Group’s Woldemichael.

African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat convened a virtual special ministerial meeting on Thursday attended by regional and foreign powers, including the Arab League, Libya, Russia, and China. They called for an end to the violence and resumption of talks “towards the establishment of an inclusive, democratic transitional civilian-led government.”

But local resistance movements want any talks to focus on an immediate future for Sudanese people without Burhan and Hemeti at the helm of government or pulling strings behind the scenes.

Wednesday, April 26: The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on Tunisia.

Wednesday, April 26, to Friday, April 28: The president of Finland, Sauli Niinisto, continues his visit to South Africa and Namibia.

Wednesday, April 26, to Thursday, April 27: A hearing that began Monday on legal challenges to the U.K. government’s Rwanda asylum plan, continues at the Court of Appeal in London.

Thursday, April 27: South Africa Freedom Day marks the 29th anniversary of the country’s first post-apartheid democratic elections.

Friday, April 28: Uganda releases inflation figures for April.

Ethiopia peace process. Eritrean forces still control several administrative areas in Tigray, according to the newly formed Tigray Interim Administration, as reported to the Ethiopia Reporter. The new administration says it cannot begin governing parts of Tigray due to the ongoing occupation by Eritrean soldiers and Fano, a militia that supported federal and Amhara regional troops against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front during the civil war.

The areas are in contested territories claimed by the Eritrean government during the border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia from 1998 to 2000. Meanwhile, Fano forces are occupying areas that are contested by the Amhara regional state in Tigray. A peace agreement signed last November hinged on the establishment of a regional administration in Tigray, but Amhara militias and Eritrean forces were not included in the talks.

Separately, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the rebel Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) began peace negotiations in Tanzania on Tuesday. The OLA is an armed splinter group of the Oromo Liberation Front opposition party that is calling for self-determination. In a statement, the OLA said it “remains unwavering in its commitment to engaging in constructive dialogue and working towards a peaceful resolution that addresses the grievances and aspirations of the Oromo people.”

Zambia IMF deal. A long-awaited restructuring of Zambia’s $12.8 billion external loan debts is close to being finalized, according to Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane. The restructuring is needed to unlock $188 million in credit from the International Monetary Fund.

“Everyone is working very hard to make sure that this money is released. I feel confident that this money will come,” Musokotwane said on Friday. China is Zambia’s largest bilateral creditor, and Western officials blamed China for having held up the restructuring process when Beijing demanded that Western multilateral lenders such as the World Bank also take losses on loans.

A woman who identifies as lesbian makes jewelry to sell at a shelter for lesbian, bisexual, and queer women in Kampala, Uganda, on April 24. Luke Dray/Getty Images Europe

Uganda LGBTQ+ bill. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has refused to sign into law a new, hard-line anti-LGBTQ+ bill that imposes the death penalty and life imprisonment for homosexuality, requesting that it be returned to parliament for reconsideration.

Museveni wants lawmakers to amend the bill to include amnesty for those who come out as gay and seek rehabilitation and to delete a provision that stipulates penalties for those who don’t report gay people to the authorities.

The bill has faced widespread international condemnation, but Museveni has said that “Western countries should stop wasting the time of humanity by trying to impose their practices on other people.” In a statement, he added on Thursday, “I totally agree with the bill, but my original problem is the psychologically disoriented person.”

The United States significantly props up Museveni’s administration through $950 million a year in health and development assistance, and his latest move may be part of an effort to placate foreign donors and investors.

South Africa wants to leave ICC, again. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that his government will pull out of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in August.

“Having heard what the ICC has said in relation to President Putin, that matter is under consideration and discussion,” Ramaphosa said at a joint press conference with visiting Finnish President Sauli Ninisto. Ramaphosa added that the decision was reached to pull out of its obligations “because of the manner that the ICC has been seen to be dealing with these type of problems.”

In March, the ICC in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children. However, it is highly unlikely that South Africa would be able to withdraw from the treaty in time before Putin’s visit.

Tanzania signed agreements worth $667 million with three Australian companies to mine graphite and rare earth minerals. Tanzania will have a 16 percent stake in each of the deals signed with Evolution Energy Minerals, EcoGraf Ltd., and Peak Rare Earths. The United States and its allies are looking to reduce China’s control of rare earth minerals that are critical in smartphone, computer, and battery technology, as well as essential in green energy technology.

China currently controls 71 percent of graphite processing. Zimbabwe, currently the world’s sixth-largest lithium supplier, is looking to supply 20 percent of global lithium, but much of that mining is Chinese-owned, after Chinese firm Huayou Cobalt acquired one of its largest expansion projects—Zimbabwe’s Arcadia Lithium Mine—for $422 million in 2022.

• Ukraine’s Longest Day by Franz-Stefan Gady

• The West Is Preparing for Russia’s Disintegration By Anchal Vohra

• In Sudan, U.S. Policies Paved the Way for War By Justin Lynch

Liberia elections. A general election in Liberia is slated for Oct. 10, as the country moves from manual to biometric voting. In African Arguments, Robtel Neajai Pailey, a Liberian academic, and Oscar Bloh, a Liberian lawyer, argue that the process of biometric voter registration has been hampered by “technical glitches, biometric card shortages and general ineptitude by NEC [National Elections Commission] employees.”

Liberia is Africa’s oldest democratic nation; however, they write that because it is “populated by political appointees who appear to be loyal to embattled president George Oppong Weah, Liberia’s NEC has repeatedly demonstrated its inability to organise free and fair elections.”

Qaddafi-era graft. Sana Sbouai, Khadija Sharife, and Mustapha Sesay for the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) examine how former dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi’s vision of Pan-Africanism in part enabled corruption by those close to him.

The Libyan state investment fund was supposed to fund a ferry line for Sierra Leone costing $4 million. But according to bank statements obtained by OCCRP, Abdusalam Abulghasem Abughila, a relative of Qaddafi, had the fund deposited into his personal account in Malta. Only $2.6 million was paid for the ferry while the remaining $1.4 million was allegedly siphoned by Abughila, leaving Sierra Leone with a poorly working ferry.