Hello, dear readers:
In this issue, I offer my take on what’s ahead in 2023. Attentive subscribers will find few surprises here, but I do think the BookTok effect will cool off in the year ahead.
Also (drum roll) …
The Hot Sheet archive is now available to paid subscribers!
I held off on a separate email notification in favor of notifying you today. Here is how to gain access to the archive of all content published since The Hot Sheet launched in 2015.
- Visit The Hot Sheet website (hotsheetpub.com).
- Look for the Subscriber Login in the upper right corner.
- Enter your subscription email address, then click on “Lost your password.” You’ll receive an email to help you set your password.
- Once you’ve set your password, you should be able to log in and search the archive as well as update or modify your Hot Sheet subscription account.
- Anyone still in trial will not be able to access the archive until the subscription becomes paid and active.
If you have any trouble gaining access, just respond directly to this message. I (or Mark) will be happy to assist.
Finally: With this first issue of the new year and in the issues ahead, you’ll notice changes to the newsletter content and structure. The goal: to keep the value high while making it an easier (and more delightful) read. If you have feedback, hit reply.
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Sponsored by: San Francisco Writers Conference. Supercharge your writing with us this year. Meet agents and editors, and acquire the tools you need to publish successfully.
February 16–19, 2023
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Hot Shots
Recently in the headlines
What’s entering the public domain this year?
Every year, Jan. 1 is celebrated as Public Domain Day. This year, works published in 1923, including Virginia Woolf’s To the Lighthouse, Countee Cullen’s Copper Sun, and Edith Wharton’s Twilight Sleep, among many others, enter the public domain. To see a list of books, movies, and music freshly in public domain, visit Duke University’s site.
Canada extends copyright protection by 20 years
At the end of 2022, the Canadian government changed its copyright laws so that books, songs, and plays will enjoy an additional 20 years of copyright protection. That means copyright in Canada now lasts for the life of the author plus 70 years—the same as in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Europe. The change was made to bring Canada into compliance with a North American free trade deal. The law applies to works going forward as well as to authors, composers, or screenwriters whose works would have been added to the public domain between now and 2043. Learn more.
HarperCollins phases out physical ARCs for children’s titles
Word has spread that HarperCollins will no longer send advance review copies (ARCs) in print format for children’s titles—except for lead titles. And beyond fall 2023, no physical copies will be sent, according to the current plan. On Twitter, author Margaret Owen wrote, “Multiple publishers/imprints have quietly phased out physical ARCs in lieu of e-galleys and event-specific bound manuscripts.”
Brandon Sanderson distributes his audio on Spotify, not Audible
Sanderson ran the most successful Kickstarter in history last year for four “secret” novels that will be self-published and later distributed (in print only) by his publisher, Tor. But Sanderson won’t be distributing digital audio editions on Audible. He says that’s because Audible pays a “measly” amount (25 percent to indie authors if you’re not exclusive), but he has struck a deal with Spotify. He writes, “Audible has grown to a place where it’s very bad for authors. It’s a good company doing bad things.” Read his 2022 year in review.
The most popular digital checkouts at public libraries in 2022
According to OverDrive, which distributes digital materials to 22,000 libraries in 45 countries, these were the most popular titles globally.
- Adult fiction: The Last Thing He Told Me by Laura Dave
- Adult nonfiction: Educated by Tara Westover
- Young adult fiction: A Court of Thorns and Roses by Sarah J. Maas
- Children’s fiction: Diary of a Wimpy Kid by Jeff Kinney
Browse the full list.
Storytel increases prices for unlimited listening
The leading digital book subscription service in Europe, Storytel, has launched a new subscription level with a listening cap. At the same time, the price has increased for unlimited listening. This follows a similar move by European competitor BookBeat.
Book sales update
Good news: The final week of holiday sales in 2022 outpaced the same week from 2021. That leaves print book sales at roughly 6 percent below last year. While that may seem disappointing, it’s the second-best print sales year in a long time, ahead of 2020 and behind 2021.
Michelle Obama’s The Light We Carry was the number-one title during the final week, selling 150,000 hardcovers. Literary novel Lessons in Chemistry by Bonnie Garmus was the highest-ranking debut, selling an impressive 62,000 hardcovers in the final week.
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What to Watch for in 2023
After a few years of extraordinary growth, the creator economy, AI, BookTok, and Amazon may be poised for a fall
In the last issue, I recapped the most notable stories of 2022. In 2023, I’ll be closely watching these ongoing developments.
Publishing workers fight for better pay and benefits
The HarperCollins union remains on strike, and the workers have widespread support among agents, authors, and other industry figures. The union appears ready to hold out for the long haul. In the UK, most big publishers have already offered financial support of some kind to employees, especially in light of inflation. Penguin Random House UK has given its lowest paid staff a pay “award” of 9 percent, which includes a 5 percent pay increase and a 4 percent one-off payment. Simon & Schuster UK, Hachette UK, and Pan Macmillan have also offered one-off payments of support to workers. Especially if the economy trends downward, look for increased pressure and demands alongside a groundswell of community support for the workers.
Big publishers versus The Internet Archive: a landmark case for copyright
More than two years ago, several large US publishers filed a lawsuit against the Internet Archive, which operates the Open Library. In a nutshell, the Open Library (some say it is not a library at all) pushes copyright-law boundaries through a controversial concept known as controlled digital lending (CDL). Controlled digital lending involves lending one digital copy at a time for each hard copy that’s been scanned and digitized. No payments are made to publishers/authors for CDL.
Your average local library pays for ebook licenses and rarely, if ever, engages in CDL-based lending. So CDL is not a norm by any stretch—and publishers are fighting to ensure it does not become one. The legal battle now underway will likely affect the future of copyright law and fair use. Publishers have convincingly argued that CDL does not fall under fair use and that the Open Library is little more than a pirate site.
CDL seems unlikely to hold up in today’s courts as a legitimate practice, but if readers are increasingly attracted to libraries for ebooks (despite long wait times and sporadic availability), publishers need to ask themselves why and what that means for their business model in the future. Across all media, consumers are becoming accustomed to subscription-based services where they can experiment and try new things without a commitment, abandon books without any concern for sunk costs, and of course read as much as they like without pulling out their wallet each time.
Related, publisher David Wogahn wrote us, asking, “A topic I keep thinking about is whether larger publishers will (can?) continue to price their ebooks as high as they have been pricing them relative to print. Printing and distributing physical products is only getting more expensive—in real dollars and in costs to the environment. There seems to be evidence that some of these publishers are losing market share to lower-priced books. And I’m sure returns factor into print format profitability as well. Related, I wonder if anyone has looked at how high ebook pricing impacts author royalties. Between family and friends, six of us read one print copy of The Thursday Murder Club. And when it’s given away or sold as used, the reading continues without royalties to the author. It seems like authors are, in a sense, subsidizing the cost of publishers helping bookstores compete with Amazon. (As worthy an objective as that may be.)”
The creator economy cools off
The pandemic saw the growth of countless efforts to help creators earn more money, whether through tipping and donations, advertising, subscription sales, or outright financial bonuses for posting content. We saw the launch of Kindle Vella and Wattpad Yonder; the phenomenal growth and publicity surrounding Substack; social media sites battling each other for first dibs on the best creators (TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and others); and the frenzied speculation surrounding NFTs. But across media and tech businesses in particular, companies have been tightening their belts (cutting workers) and modifying their business to focus on return on investment. Terms for creators may become less favorable, with bonuses discontinued.
A number of media prognosticators see clouds on the horizon for creators who have gone solo over the last couple years. Brian Morrissey commented, “When I started [my newsletter] the Rebooting in October 2020, I saw the shift taking place from institutions to individuals. That was one reason why I wanted to start on Substack. That shift will continue, only I believe much of the creator economy will face a reality check. The connection audiences feel to individuals is powerful, without a doubt, but the fallout from endorsements of crypto show how that can work against individual creators. I expect we’ll see a correction as more individuals begin to build out micro-media companies. Running a solo media business is hard and not for most people.”
Amazon falters
In 2022, it was already apparent that Amazon was faltering. Recent headlines have noted its layoffs in the books and devices divisions, so the question is how deep the cuts will go and how much change is ahead that will affect authors directly. Will Amazon stick with Vella? Will they pull back on their support and involvement in the self-publishing community? Several years ago, Amazon shuttered a range of programs in quick succession (Kindle Worlds, Kindle Press, Kindle Scout, Write On); I would not be surprised to see the ground shift significantly once again this year. Tim Carmody has an explication on the decline of companies such as Amazon; professional author Kristine Kathryn Rusch has an item in her year in review that stresses the importance of diversifying away from Amazon.
AI will be the center of conversation and controversy
There are three separate areas to consider in publishing: AI narration, AI-generated art and illustration, and AI-generated text. The most straightforward of these in legal terms is AI-narrated audiobooks, which Google and Apple have already started to support. Both publishers and authors are eager to make use of the technology, especially for backlist and nonfiction.
Things aren’t as straightforward for AI-generated art and text as they raise so many copyright and intellectual property questions, not to mention ethical concerns. No one can say with absolute certainty who owns AI-generated material, and current copyright laws are sure to be challenged. I expect things to move fast, as the technology is moving fast. Canva—very popular with authors—already offers AI-generated art as part of its service; Notion already has built-in AI writing assistance; Microsoft already uses AI in Microsoft Office; and so on. TechCrunch rounds up what we can expect to see in generative AI next year, and here’s a look at AI and Hollywood.
TikTok falls from grace, at least a little bit
This is a gut feeling based on years of observing the rise and fall of social media platforms. For a number of reasons, I think the bloom will come off the rose this year, especially for the book publishing industry. I predict TikTok won’t be boosting sales the same as in the past; I think TikTok itself will put its thumb on the scale in a way that isn’t helpful to BookTok; and I think we’ll see darker issues emerge, as they always do with social technology. Ted Gioia also thinks TikTok has peaked (subscription required).
Related: It’s the end of the mass social media era
I’m stealing this one from Brian Morrissey’s look ahead to 2023. He writes, “Connecting the world in one massive room—or town square—seemed like such a good idea. … The picture has changed. … Already people are dispersing to private texting groups and more niche gathering places.”
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Was The Hot Sheet’s 2022 outlook accurate?
Here’s what I discussed a year ago.
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👍 The battle over digital lending. It’s not over yet (see the Internet Archive mention above), but the libraries lost a major battle when the state of Maryland’s ebook licensing law was struck down by a judge. At the time, I said the libraries’ case looked weak. However, libraries have not given up the fight and are exploring all their options.
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👍 Copyright Claims Board begins operations. It was launched on time and in an organized fashion. So far, it’s going well.
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👍 Increased AI narration. It’s hard to go wrong on this one; expect it to continue growing for years.
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👍👎 Books as intellectual property: Yes and no. I wasn’t strictly wrong about the increasing profitability of books as foundational IP driving sales of other products (movies, podcasts, etc.); it’s just that nothing splashy occurred in 2022. That said, one glance at the new publishing efforts launched last year shows that media businesses love to partner up with publishers on new imprints, and publishers benefit from the sale of licensed content: MTV Books, Sugar23 Books, Random House Worlds, Seuss Studios, and more.
- 👎 The PRH-S&S merger: I thought it would happen. Big miscalculation!
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Big-Picture Sales Trends of 2022
An early look at book publishing sales data
While we’re awaiting final numbers and analyses from NPD BookScan and the Association of American Publishers (plus the big publishers), here are some starting takeaways based on 2022 data thus far.
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The romance market was the leading growth category and drove overall gains in the adult fiction market. This growth is specific to print; ebook sales volume actually declined by 16 percent. NPD BookScan’s Kristen McLean noted, “The fact that the growth is happening only in print formats, coupled with the fact that traditional romance authors are not keeping up with the overall sector growth, indicates that this truly is a whole new group of readers coming to this genre.”
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Authors featured on BookTok drove the lion’s share of fiction growth, and most BookTok sellers are backlist (older) titles. You can hear more from McLean on BookTok in this 15-minute NPD podcast. Backlist sales are about 70 percent of print sales as measured by BookScan, meaning authors and publishers should capitalize on opportunities to repackage backlist fiction for a new generation of readers.
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Adult nonfiction has seen declines this year, especially in ebook format. In print alone, the decline is about 10 percent versus 2021. Prior to the pandemic (and while Trump was still president), adult nonfiction drove growth while adult fiction flatlined. The two categories have exchanged places. However, business and economics books reached a 10-year sales high; popular topics include entrepreneurship, revamping of HR, and expanding skills. The travel category also rebounded after severe declines in 2020–2021.
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YA fiction print sales grew about 3 percent this year, which may not seem like a lot but represents an increase of over 50 percent compared to 2019. TikTok is one of the drivers.
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Colleen Hoover’s newest title, It Starts with Us, sold more than 800,000 copies during its first week on sale. Atria printed 2.5 million copies and said the book was the most pre-ordered novel in Simon & Schuster history. Overall, print unit sales of Hoover’s books in 2022 rivaled E.L. James’s Fifty Shades of Grey and surpassed the Bible. At one point during the year, Hoover’s books accounted for six of the top 10 bestselling books in the US.
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Prominent paid placements in retail locations are no longer enough for book discovery (and Barnes & Noble doesn’t accept them now). Sales highs typically result from streaming media (e.g., Netflix), page-to-screen pipelines, influencer book clubs, anime/manga series, fan mobilization, and (of course) BookTok.
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Amazon Trend Report: Teen & YA
Trends and takeaways from the teen/YA market
We work with Alex Newton of K-lytics to bring you a high-level look at publishing trends based on what’s currently being read and sold at Amazon. These trends relate strictly to the Kindle ebook market, where Newton has been tracking sales rank data since 2014.
Teen & YA
YA literature has been a growth area for traditional publishing since 2010, although it has slowed down in recent years. (In 2021, YA fiction sales were flat.) Conventional wisdom says that more adults read in the category than young people.
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YA does not mean “short.” Amazon data shows that YA books are the same length as books in the adult market.
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The leading subcategories in YA—by a significant margin—are science fiction & fantasy as well as romance.
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Popular keywords used to search for YA books on Amazon include “teen girls” and “teen romance books.” Popular topical searches include “teen depression,” “teenage witch,” and “teenage cookbook.”
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In the past year, declines have occurred in YA historical fiction (-30 percent) and LGBTQ (-10 percent).
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Pricing is in the middle to lower tier relative to other main Kindle categories, with $4.99 as the most frequent price point. More than 70 percent of the top YA titles are in Kindle Unlimited.
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Virtually all YA bestsellers are part of a series. Top-performing authors right now, aside from the perennially popular JK Rowling, are Tracy Wolff, Sarah J. Maas, and Alex Aster.
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For more insights, you can purchase the full report.
Side Notes
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Amazon’s new limitation on bestseller list rank (a book can only rank in three categories at a time) continues to play out and create opportunities for less well-known authors to reach the Top 100 in their subcategory. This is particularly true in YA.
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Recently, romance surpassed the more general, catch-all category of “literature and fiction” to become the highest-selling category in the Kindle store.
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“Publishing has grown more and more corporate. I think it’s all changing. Luckily, I don’t have to deal with any of that.”
—Longtime editor Robert Gottlieb
quoted in Vulture
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Trailblazes
Opportunities, launches, and startups
AI Watch
The latest product launches in the generative AI space:
- Longshot: AI writing assistant for blogging
- ChatBCG: AI assistant for creating slide packs (for belly laughs, click on “How to write a best selling book”)
- Embolden: Write better product descriptions and emails for ecommerce
- Hypotenuse: Another ecommerce/copywriting assistant
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Links of Interest
More 2022 Recaps
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Publishers Weekly summarizes supply chain problems last year. Conditions did improve, and price increases eased. But costs remained above 2019 levels and hurt publishers’ profit margins. Read Jim Milliot and Ed Nawotka in Publishers Weekly.
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Author Kristine Kathyrn Rusch offers her year in review. There are six parts thus far, including an overview and a close look at Amazon.
TikTok
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How will BookTok change publishing? For now, white romance novels dominate BookTok. Meanwhile, influencers feel they’re not compensated sufficiently. Read CT Jones in Rolling Stone.
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TikTok drama of 2022: Plagiarism, the CoHo effect, and more. Read Meg Zukin in Vulture.
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Librarians meet young people where they are: TikTok. Library TikTok is similar to but different from BookTok: There is chatter about books, but librarians post about resources and events, showcasing libraries as welcoming places for diverse communities. Read Lora Kelley in the New York Times (gift link).
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Is picking books by trope reductive? Some say BookTok trope recommendations reward authors for simplicity rather than complexity. Read Radhamely De Leon at Slate.
Libraries
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Fascinating data on library borrowing habits in San Francisco: After the pandemic, there are fewer patrons who borrow only physical materials and a larger share of digital-only and “omni users” (those who check out both physical and digital copies). At the beginning of the pandemic, 24 percent of public library patrons in San Francisco were digital only. By the end of last month, the share of digital-only users increased 22 percentage points, omni-users were up 1 point, and physical-only patrons down 23 points. Read Nami Sumida in the San Francisco Chronicle.
AI
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How are Kindle novelists using ChatGPT? Jennifer Lepp writes cozy paranormal mysteries under the pen name Leanne Leeds. She’s interviewed by Josh Dzieza at the Verge.
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The death and rebirth of writing: Novelist and cultural commentator Stephen Marche discusses ChatGPT with academic and broadcaster Shahidha Bari. Listen to the Intelligence Squared podcast.
Bookselling
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Waterstones asks for 85 percent discount from publishers. According to an email seen by the Bookseller, UK chain Waterstones seeks 85 percent off certain frontlist titles it expects to have a surplus of in January. A publisher said that no one except Waterstones would make money at such a discount—and small publishers would lose money. Read Ruth Comerford in the Bookseller (subscription required).
Culture & Politics
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The Jan. 6 Report will be available in a half dozen editions. Most are left- or right-leaning, with the exception of Melville House’s release, which will have no preface/introduction or other supplementary material. Read Alexandra Alter and Elizabeth A. Harris in the New York Times (gift link).
- What makes an unfilmable novel? For the purposes of this commentary, “unfilmable novels” are books that are considered artistically unfilmable: “Works whose power is so bound to the pleasures and possibilities of the page—which are different, not better or worse, than the pleasures and possibilities of the screen—that they couldn’t be adapted without losing most of their DNA.” Read Lincoln Michel at Counter Craft.
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Exclusive Authors Guild offer for Hot Sheet Subscribers: Save 35% when you join the Guild today. Since 1912, the Guild has been advocating for working writers at all levels of their careers. Use promo code HOTSHEET35.
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Cartoon: Bob Eckstein
Copy editor: Nicole R. Klungle
Production coordinator: Mark F. Griffin
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