1.  MONOPOLIES UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

• We have two big questions. Will these proposals succeed and do they signal the start of a trend that could lead to similar efforts in places like Oregon and New Hampshire?
• At first glance, we note two headwinds to passage. The first is something we’ll call “framework inertia.” Having operated under the existing model for several years, neither the lotteries nor their platform providers, who enjoy monopoly access to bettors, are likely eager to upend the status quo. 
• Second, while the proposals are likely to be supported in theory by many operators, the small size of the jurisdictions is unlikely to inspire the kind of dedicated attention that may be required to overcome the above-mentioned framework inertia. 
• The incumbents too will fight back. Rush Street Interactive just took over monopoly control of Delaware in January after a competitive bidding process and doesn't want to lose a market run-rating for $60mm in GGR. It can also point to the fact it has tripled previous revenue records in the three months since taking over, as proof of the market’s health.
• The DC status quo may also stand a better chance of staying in place now FanDuel—and its superior product—has taken over control of the market from Intralot.
• As for copycat legislation in New Hampshire and Oregon, we don't think it's a certainty. DraftKings is a proficient operator offering a competitive product in those states, while paying hefty revenue sharing rates (51% in New Hampshire for example). 
• That said, of the two, Oregon looks the more likely candidate to change the status quo, with OSB  GGR per adult at around $25 over the trailing 12 months, compared to $63 for New Hampshire (middle of the pack among U.S. states).

3. CHART OF THE WEEK: FANATICS INTO SECOND PLACE IN NJ OSB

• We detailed Fanatics’s sudden spike in New Jersey a few weeks back, and that strength continued in March as it took second place in OSB GGR share from DraftKings.
   
• According to DGE figures—which split out GGR for the first three months of 2024 by brand for the first time—Fanatics’ PointsBet operation brand had a 23.5% share of New Jersey OSB GGR, worth around $20mm.
   
• As covered previously, we understand that surge is driven by a very small number of VIPs, which is reflected in the monthly volatility—from $28mm GGR in January to $7mm in February, back to $20mm in March. 
   
• The data also suggests the VIP activity came from DraftKings, which slipped to a 20% GGR share in march, behind FanDuel (34% share) and PointsBet.