Notes

Wow.. quite a move. JPY futures find some upside resistance at each of those large strike prices (again, spot USDJPY levels aren’t the relevant measure at the moment), which were subsequently cleared. Then, after having already made a +1% move, JPY jumps another +2% in under 2 minutes on ~$1.4bn notional. So it does now seem that those 2 massive options positions have largely been closed out based on their respective trading volumes on the day. But- there is still a TON of net short futures positioning by both asset managers and leveraged traders who may very well get the risk officer shoulder tap, or the margin call. In terms of cross asset spillover, DM indices are holding up fine (for now) while NKY futures are getting slaughtered. Last point before I (probably) go to sleep is- if you look back at my original post flagging this, ad my subsequent follow ups, not once do I mention the BOJ “neg rates gone in Dec” story making the rounds now. Not because that’s not a real thing, but just to point out that should there be an extreme JPY move, it’s due to pre-positioning. Not BOJ chatter headlines. Sometimes it is BOJ chatter that will move markets. Today was not- it was market mechanics already in play, hence the post. If you’re interested in intraday market notes (of significance only, not nonsense x quantity) - subscribe, and let me know with your feedback. Thanks as always - and keep eyes on JPY westonnakamura.substack.com/p/heads-up-…

Heads up: Potential JPY Surge In Immediate
Flagging massive $1.6bn JPY call options open position
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